Investing

[Merged] Another bloody red day on the TSX

  • Last Updated:
  • Oct 13th, 2018 7:07 pm
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Feb 26, 2017
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endokuken wrote:
Oct 10th, 2018 3:24 pm
Should we just go inverse leveraged ETFs to counteract this selloff?
probably not
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Nov 4, 2007
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Well there goes any gains for the year.
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Jul 23, 2007
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CCHIPSS wrote:
Oct 10th, 2018 2:35 pm
If you wait until it is down 11% or 22% in just one day, you obviously waited too long. When even Warran Buffet goes cash, we should seriously consider selling all also.
Well I'm not Warren Buffett, nor am I a very good market timer. I buy into up markets and down markets but always stay fully invested at all times. Adding any savings to my dividends usually allows me to purchase at least a few listed company shares every year.
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Oct 21, 2014
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Burlington, ON
Added some RY at the close 100.87. Rising rates help not hinder banks.
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Stryker wrote:
Oct 10th, 2018 5:20 pm
Well I'm not Warren Buffett, nor am I a very good market timer. I buy into up markets and down markets but always stay fully invested at all times.
But what if “it’s different this time”, everybody will only be buying crypto, weed and GICs from now on and the stocks will drop to 0 and never recover? Besides, buy and hold is so old school, new school is sell at the top and buy at the bottom or 20% off, whichever comes first!

Yeah, I know, it’s more fun to shut up and enjoy the “AAAAAA EVERYTHING IS RED IM ALREADY LOSING ONE THOUSAND BLOODY DOLLARS!!” circus.. :)
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freilona wrote:
Oct 10th, 2018 6:39 pm
But what if “it’s different this time”, everybody will only be buying crypto, weed and GICs from now on and the stocks will drop to 0 and never recover? Besides, buy and hold is so old school, new school is sell at the top and buy at the bottom or 20% off, whichever comes first!

Yeah, I know, it’s more fun to shut up and enjoy the “AAAAAA EVERYTHING IS RED IM ALREADY LOSING ONE THOUSAND BLOODY DOLLARS!!” circus.. :)
I don't know Freilona. I'm pretty old fashioned. No weed or cryto in the portfolio. The last time I bought a one year GIC for myself it was paying 18%. I've never seen equity markets go to zero in North America. Perhaps 90% down in nominal terms like in the early 30's, but that was basically a hundred year storm, the likes we haven't seen since.

Yeah, I was down quite a bit during the financial crisis, the tech crash and also the 1987 (didn't see it coming) major downturn. I wouldn't exactly call it fun, but for me, it's always been a learning experience. How can I improve my investing methods. What are any weaknesses in the portfolio. With each stock market lesson, you just get that little bit better at it.
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Stryker wrote:
Oct 10th, 2018 7:00 pm
I wouldn't exactly call it fun, but for me, it's always been a learning experience. How can I improve my investing methods. What are any weaknesses in the portfolio. With each stock market lesson, you just get that little bit better at it.
I sold all of my “super-losers” (that were down 80%+ with no chance of recovery) except Crescent Point (that was all the rage in 2014 when I bought it) Keeping it as a reminder (and it’s like 1.5% of the overall portfolio now [edit: oops, it’s actually only 0.15%! lol] - as were the others :))

Anyways, the futures are slightly green, so hopefully tomorrow will be “AAAAA EVERYTHING IS GREEN - THATS IT?! WHY DIDNT I BUY YESTERDAAAY??!!” day :)
Last edited by freilona on Oct 10th, 2018 9:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Oct 21, 2014
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freilona wrote:
Oct 10th, 2018 7:29 pm
Anyways, the futures are slightly green, so hopefully tomorrow will be “AAAAA EVERYTHING IS GREEN - THATS IT?! WHY DIDNT I BUY YESTERDAAAY??!!” day :)
Yeah, it's easy to lose sight of the fact that you are buying or selling ownership in companies that provide services that their customers love and are willing to pay a premium for when Jim Cramer is screaming and machines are going wild. They're going to make money, the only question is who will own them when they do.

The only two things I know for sure is that the market will open tomorrow and panic is not a strategy.
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freilona wrote:
Oct 10th, 2018 7:29 pm
I sold all of my “super-losers” (that were down 80%+ with no chance of recovery) except Crescent Point (that was all the rage in 2014 when I bought it) Keeping it as a reminder (and it’s like 1.5% of the overall portfolio now - as were the others :))

Anyways, the futures are slightly green, so hopefully tomorrow will be “AAAAA EVERYTHING IS GREEN - THATS IT?! WHY DIDNT I BUY YESTERDAAAY??!!” day :)
I watched two of my tech stocks go to zero or near zero in the early 2000's. Since then I've avoided hot sectors. Around 2012 I lost my investment in the old YLO. That was my last attempt at deep value. Now I'm somewhere in between. I just wait for management to make the first move. Cut the dividend and the stock gets sold right away. Even if it's down from my initial buy, I still have some remnants of the sold assets that I can re-invest into another company. Dividend cuts don't happen too often though, so it's not a big concern. I've got the portfolio set up so that I can sleep through any market.
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Gungnir wrote:
Oct 10th, 2018 7:39 pm
The only two things I know for sure is that the market will open tomorrow and panic is not a strategy.
Took me a bit to locate October’14 correction that looked oh so scary at the time that I stopped checking the accounts every day (luckily, had a few “buy” orders entered in advance that got auto-executed.. :))
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Stryker wrote:
Oct 10th, 2018 7:54 pm
I've got the portfolio set up so that I can sleep through any market.
Same here, but indexing does the trick for me. Wasn’t sure how dividend stocks will behave in rising rates environment, so only kept a few - individual stocks I mean, obviously they’re still part of the indexes.. :)
What should an investor do?

Simple. Stay invested. In a storm, shelter in place. Don’t set off in a new vessel. A balanced, globally-diversified portfolio is the best bet, as it has been for ages – precisely because you’ve no idea what happens next. Do you?
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/10/10/plop/
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CCHIPSS wrote:
Oct 10th, 2018 2:35 pm
If you wait until it is down 11% or 22% in just one day, you obviously waited too long. When even Warran Buffet goes cash, we should seriously consider selling all also.

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2018/0 ... -the-same/
It’s important to note that Buffett never switched to cash. He has cash, as his current investments keep producing cash, which is different. He mentioned in his annual letters that because of the catastrophe-insurance business they are in, they don’t scrape the bottom of the barrel in terms of cash reserves, so they need to keep at least 1 year’s worth of earnings (that alone is responsible for about 10% to 15% of his current cash). Also, Buffett remains invested and has tons of cash because BRK is too big and now acquire full businesses or big steaks at public traded companies. Anyone that understands how BRK works and how Buffett operates understands that he doesn’t predict what the market will do next, he partners with businesses for long time and has cash for further opportunities - not because he saw a top forming in the market.

In 2003, Buffett gave the following remark on BRK annual meeting:

“We have $16 billion in cash not because of any predictions about a market decline, but because we can't find anything that makes us want to part with that cash. We're not positioning ourselves. We just try to do smart things every day, and if there's nothing smart, then we sit on cash.”

In 2006, Buffett gave the following remark on BRK annual meeting:

“While we don’t like having excess cash, we like doing dumb deals even less because we’re stuck with them forever. You’re right that we should be uncomfortable that we have this cash, but the alternative of doing bad deals is far worse”.

In 2009 Buffett and Gates gave the following lecture at Columbia Business School:

“We always keep enough cash around so I feel very comfortable and don't worry about sleeping at night. But it's not because I like cash as an investment. Cash is a bad investment over time. But you always want to have enough so that nobody else can determine your future essentially. The worst -- the financial panic is behind us. The economic spillout which came to some extent from that financial panic is still with us. It will end. I don't know if it will end tomorrow or next week or next month. Or maybe a year. But it won't go on forever. And to sit around and try and pick the bottom, people were trying to do that last March and the bottom hadn't come in unemployment and the bottom hadn't come in business but the bottom had come in stocks. Don't pass up something that's attractive today because you think you will find something way more attractive tomorrow.”


In 2003 during question and answer sessions from BRK Annual meeting, someone asked what is the temperament of successful investors.

[Carles Munger]: I think there's something to be said for developing the disposition to own stocks without fretting.

[Warren Buffett]: I think it's almost impossible to do well investing over time without this. If the market closed for years, we wouldn't care. Would still keep making Sees candy, Dilly bars, etc.
If you focus on the price, you're assuming that the market knows more than you do. That may be the truth, but in that case you shouldn't own it. The stock market is there to serve you, not to instruct you.

Focus on price and value. If a stock gets cheaper and you have some cash, buy more. We sometimes stop buying when prices goes up. This cost us $8 billion a few years ago when we were buying Wal-Mart. When we're buying something, we want the price to go down and down and down.

You don't have to be right on everything or 20%, 10%, or 5% of businesses. You only have to be right one or two times a year. I used to handicap horses. You can come up with a very profitable decision on a single company. If someone asked me to handicap the 500 companies in the S&P 500, I wouldn't do a very good job. You only have to be right a few times in your lifetime, as long as you don't make any big mistakes.

Ted Williams, in his book The Science of Hitting, talked about how he carved up the strike zone into different zones and only swung at pitches that were in his sweet spot. Investing is the same way.




Rod
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Read this thread from the beginning for a bit (for the first time) - very interesting (and saw Jerry posting here in 2007! :)) Couple quotes from 10 years ago:

Oct 10th, 2008 10:14 am
ibanker wrote:
Oct 10th, 2008 11:14 am
do you guys really think america will be the leading economy after all this?? the balance will be shifted to the middle east and asia. america will be what europe became when america became dominant. after this is all over we will not be back to our daily lives as it was 2 years ago. the dynamics have changed and there is absolutely no trust in the american system anymore. trust is more important then credit and when your not trusted its harder to regain it then credit is.
Oct 10th, 2008 2:30 pm
urameatball wrote:
Oct 10th, 2008 3:30 pm
TSX making a last effort push before thanksgiving.
up like 300 in the last 1/2hr. fun times!
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Nov 25, 2009
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Hold a bit in ZCH.TO (chinese etf). Thinking of nuking it first thing in the morning.

What do you guys think?

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