Investing

[Merged] Another bloody red day on the TSX

  • Last Updated:
  • Feb 14th, 2019 2:14 pm
Deal Expert
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Sep 19, 2004
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Waterloo
We have JT to thank for the negative sentiment :( anti-energy/pipelines


TD Asset Management’s CEO has never seen sentiment towards Canada this negative. Here’s where he’s seeing investment opportunities - The Globe and Mail
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investi ... ceo-bruce/
Is the low Canadian market sentiment a contrarian indicator suggesting upside for the market?

I don’t think I have ever seen sentiment as negative as it is now in all of my years. I think the biggest challenge for Canada is that we are just not seeing a lot of global interest in our stocks. I think that’s part of what’s depressing the price-to-earnings multiples.

The way I look at it, it should create a long-term opportunity. I don’t know if that opportunity will bear fruit in 2019 or if it will take longer. I think the valuations do embed a reasonable amount of skepticism and negativity about Canada.
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TDAM saying what we already knew. Companies don't bail when they are optimistic.
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Oct 21, 2014
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MrMom wrote:
Feb 12th, 2019 7:37 am
TDAM saying what we already knew. Companies don't bail when they are optimistic.
He's right though. The right time to buy is when sentiment is highly negative. Low multiples means higher earning yields and buybacks are more effective.

Justin won't be around forever and sentiment should improve when we get a PM who takes the economy more seriously.
Sr. Member
Feb 26, 2017
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Most Canadian stocks still look a bit undervalued to me. As a dividend growth investor its pretty hard to beat Canadian stocks. You take a bit more risk with Canadian stocks but you can also get a portfolio with a 4-5% yield that has dividends that grow 8-9% a year.
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Gungnir wrote:
Feb 12th, 2019 9:17 am
He's right though. The right time to buy is when sentiment is highly negative. Low multiples means higher earning yields and buybacks are more effective.

Justin won't be around forever and sentiment should improve when we get a PM who takes the economy more seriously.
Theoretically, for this discussion, were that the only condition to making an investment in specifically the oil patch, it could take a long, long time. There's no fixed term for any one political leader and one can be as incompetent as the provincial Ontario Liberal's were and still get reelected over and over again. Having said that, I'm an oil bagholder.
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Oct 21, 2014
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MrMom wrote:
Feb 12th, 2019 9:34 am
Theoretically, for this discussion, were that the only condition to making an investment in specifically the oil patch, it could take a long, long time. There's no fixed term for any one political leader and one can be as incompetent as the provincial Ontario Liberal's were and still get reelected over and over again. Having said that, I'm an oil bagholder.
We're all dependent on oil, most obviously for food production, transport, heating and plastics among a myriad of other products. The cognitive dissonance required to be totally anti-oil and anti-pipeline and at the same time use these products is the product of an unexamined life, and only rivaled by that of a feminist PM who groped a woman because he thought she was a less powerful than she really was. The vast majority of people just don't really seem to think about this stuff at all.

Clearly, climate change is a huge and defining issue of our time. A more reasonable way of looking at it is that we do need to reduce oil usage and we can do so but we need to make provisions until that happens which includes safe pipelines, which means new pipelines which are built with modern technology. If we can see through the spin cycle of pitting one province against another in pointless bickering, convoluted tax carbon tax schemes, lurid identity politics and outright corruption and do the hard work to replace Trudeau then we can get more coherent policies in place.

If not, enjoy the beautiful empty suit and your high dividend yields, because the TSX isn't going to go anywhere.
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Sep 8, 2007
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Way Out of GTA
MrMom wrote:
Feb 12th, 2019 9:34 am
Theoretically, for this discussion, were that the only condition to making an investment in specifically the oil patch, it could take a long, long time. There's no fixed term for any one political leader and one can be as incompetent as the provincial Ontario Liberal's were and still get reelected over and over again. Having said that, I'm an oil bagholder.
Correct. You look at Venezuela and when they voted for Chavez x3 and then Maduro and now they’ve basically done away with voting. You would have thought after one term of Chavez’s “steal from the rich” lies and destruction they would have pushed back. Nope. Waiting until the country was destroyed to go “oh wait”. We may just be in the first term of that process in Canada. He’s already bought the media with his $600mln payout.

Hence any decision to invest in Canada can wait until after there is a clear change in govt and also the mentality of the avg Canadian. Investing in sea change mentality shifts can be quite positive..like the Brazil ETF - EWZ
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Nov 24, 2016
164 posts
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Chance7652 wrote:
Feb 12th, 2019 9:22 am
Most Canadian stocks still look a bit undervalued to me. As a dividend growth investor its pretty hard to beat Canadian stocks. You take a bit more risk with Canadian stocks but you can also get a portfolio with a 4-5% yield that has dividends that grow 8-9% a year.
I'm in the process of converting all my mutual funds into dividend stocks. I've already converted everything in my TFSA and cash account. A few months ago I started thinking about the dividend income strategy, but most of the channels I was watching on YT were American. They were talking about 2-3% yields and I wasn't interested. Once I started checking TSE yields for myself, combined with growth rates, suddenly it all made sense to me.

The only question mark, for me at least, is the long-term survival of a lot of these Canadian companies. Take EIF for example. I bought a small position in them today, and I wanted to buy more, but I started thinking about 10-20 years from now. I'm not experienced enough and old enough to know what happens to Canadian companies first hand, but when I read about the Vancouver Stock Exchange, Nortel, SNC, pot stocks etc. I get a little jittery about the standards and risk profile of Canadian companies. I think from now on I'll mostly buy Canadian banks until I get more clarity on which industries are good long-term buys in Canada.
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Feb 26, 2017
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MashGhasem wrote:
Feb 12th, 2019 3:11 pm
I'm in the process of converting all my mutual funds into dividend stocks. I've already converted everything in my TFSA and cash account. A few months ago I started thinking about the dividend income strategy, but most of the channels I was watching on YT were American. They were talking about 2-3% yields and I wasn't interested. Once I started checking TSE yields for myself, combined with growth rates, suddenly it all made sense to me.

The only question mark, for me at least, is the long-term survival of a lot of these Canadian companies. Take EIF for example. I bought a small position in them today, and I wanted to buy more, but I started thinking about 10-20 years from now. I'm not experienced enough and old enough to know what happens to Canadian companies first hand, but when I read about the Vancouver Stock Exchange, Nortel, SNC, pot stocks etc. I get a little jittery about the standards and risk profile of Canadian companies. I think from now on I'll mostly buy Canadian banks until I get more clarity on which industries are good long-term buys in Canada.
Almost complete losses are petty rare. I've had one 85% loss in HCG but I've probably owned 40+ stocks in the 9 years I've been investing.

When your stock picking you should keep up on the results of how companies are preforming. I follow the companies I own pretty closely but that's mostly because I enjoy it (this can be a yearly thing). For dividend investing your looking at the revenue growth/Cash Flow Growth and the companies balance sheet (easiest way to look at this is their credit rating).

@rodbarc has a good thread on Dividend Growth Investing (a lot of the focus is on Canadian companies).

investing-idea-dividend-growth-1587815/
Jr. Member
Nov 24, 2016
164 posts
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Chance7652 wrote:
Feb 12th, 2019 5:13 pm
Almost complete losses are petty rare. I've had one 85% loss in HCG but I've probably owned 40+ stocks in the 9 years I've been investing.

When your stock picking you should keep up on the results of how companies are preforming. I follow the companies I own pretty closely but that's mostly because I enjoy it (this can be a yearly thing). For dividend investing your looking at the revenue growth/Cash Flow Growth and the companies balance sheet (easiest way to look at this is their credit rating).

@rodbarc has a good thread on Dividend Growth Investing (a lot of the focus is on Canadian companies).

investing-idea-dividend-growth-1587815/
Thanks for the tips. Yes, this is very addictive and I'm actually loving it. People like to poo-poo each other's strategies, but at the end of the day it's always about time in the markets, savings rates and sticking to your strategy (not panic selling etc.). This dividend strategy is the one that's made the most sense to me.

I feel like people don't appreciate how powerful DRIP and div growth can be over a 10-20 year time span. Then you tack on the tax treatment and the fact that you can live off the income without having to worry about dipping into your nest egg and it becomes a thing of beauty.

Rodbarc's threads are great. I've been following him for a few months now.
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Aug 2, 2015
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alanbrenton wrote:
Feb 14th, 2019 10:28 am
Why is TSX up today while the US equities market down?
Do you think they have to move in the same direction? If you figure out a model that can accurately predict movements of TSX based on US markets, let me know and I will invest.
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Apr 21, 2004
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causation wrote:
Feb 14th, 2019 10:34 am
Do you think they have to move in the same direction? If you figure out a model that can accurately predict movements of TSX based on US markets, let me know and I will invest.
You think I care if you invest, make money or lose it all?

You mean squat to 99.9999% of the population.
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Aug 2, 2015
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alanbrenton wrote:
Feb 14th, 2019 10:38 am
You think I care if you invest, make money or lose it all?

You mean squat to 99.9999% of the population.
I don't know that many people and cannot speak for others, especially with such a high accuracy. However, I strongly suspect that you are correct. Also I do not see how it is relevant and the same may be said about you.

Your question implied you expected there was a strong connection or correlation between the two markets, strong enough for them moving in the opposite directions being a rare event. If you looks at the past, you will see this is not so. My point to you was just that; and my question, which you did not answer, still stands - Do you think they have to move in the same direction? I'll add one more - Why do you think it matters if they do or do not on any given day? Honest simple questions.

Here on the forums we discuss things to help each other be better at investing and trading. You response does not add anything to this thread other than "bad smell".

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