Real Estate

Merged: GTA RE Bubble Bursting Bearish news and updates

  • Last Updated:
  • Sep 16th, 2017 10:01 am
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Buggy166 wrote:
May 19th, 2017 7:01 pm
not sure where you get those numbers from:

2015

Silicon Valley median income - 102k
San Francisco - 92k

http://siliconvalleyindicators.org/data ... ld-income/

2014:

At $94,572, the region's 2013 median household income dwarfed both California's statewide $61,320 median and the nationwide $53,291 median, according to a new analysis of federal data by think tank Joint Venture Silicon Valley.Sep 24, 2014


Range of incomes from start of career to mid term 10yr:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/sil ... 0dab33ce96
Image


San Francisco prices rise and fall with the tech sector boom/bust cycles. A bit like Alberta's real estate being tied up to oil, only a lot more secure because Silicon Valley isnt a 3rd tier choice in the world for the tech market (unlike tar sands oil production).

http://www.paragon-re.com/trend/3-reces ... and-a-baby

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-1 ... bout-burst

By comparison, Vancouver real estate is more tied to China's economic engine than to Canada's, and Toronto's is tied to its local business sector (unlike manufacturing like it was way back in the day). If you see accountants and banking types losing jobs left right and center, that's when the GTA market will start going tits up. Until then, nothing to worry about.
Recession or spiked rates I've always said only two ways house prices can ever potential significantly correct.

And household income I used this: https://www.point2homes.com/US/Neighbor ... phics.html

Remember I used median not average which can get skewed up.
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Sanyo wrote:
May 19th, 2017 6:29 pm
The Greater New York Area has a population of over 20 million people or over three times the size of the GTA. The median household income in NYC is roughly around $55,000 or roughly around $74k CDN, about the same as the median income in Toronto.

HOWEVER... Manhattan average price of a CONDO -- not a house a CONDO is $2.1 million USD!. I guarantee Toronto is nowhere close to that.
I don't know what I can say that you haven't been told before: you're comparing Manhattan, a single borough, to the entire Greater Toronto Area. That's not a valid comparison.
not a "oh ahhh San Francisco is likely in a bubble"... your guessing that's all.
I do not know anything about the San Francisco market, so I'm not in a position to comment on it. I do know about the Toronto market, and I can say that I believe it's in a bubble. Even if it isn't in a bubble, the cost to rent in Toronto is so low compared to the cost to buy that it makes more sense to rent at this time. Could I be wrong? Of course! But that's where I'm putting my chips. You've made your bet that housing prices will continue to go up into the stratosphere. I see no fundamental reason for that to happen but I wish you luck.
But keep waiting for that 2 mil house to come down to 1.75 mil, maybe you can afford it then-- cause at the bottom prices will keep moving up as 150k+ people come every year and the immigrants who've been here for a few years want to get into the property market and your going to be priced out... get in now. People in Lower Manhattan 10-15 years ago would say the same thing, condos were affordable... but guess what...now PRICED OUT.
You seem very concerned about my housing situation. Rest assured that I am adequately housed and quite comfortable where I am.
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Dec 27, 2013
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Toronto
SmugDruggler wrote:
May 19th, 2017 7:22 pm
I don't know what I can say that you haven't been told before: you're comparing Manhattan, a single borough, to the entire Greater Toronto Area. That's not a valid comparison.


I do not know anything about the San Francisco market, so I'm not in a position to comment on it. I do know about the Toronto market, and I can say that I believe it's in a bubble. Even if it isn't in a bubble, the cost to rent in Toronto is so low compared to the cost to buy that it makes more sense to rent at this time. Could I be wrong? Of course! But that's where I'm putting my chips. You've made your bet that housing prices will continue to go up into the stratosphere. I see no fundamental reason for that to happen but I wish you luck.


You seem very concerned about my housing situation. Rest assured that I am adequately housed and quite comfortable where I am.
rental costs have gone up.. quite a bit actually.. and with the new regulation, it's only getting tighter.

friend put a condo up for rent and it had 15 viewings in a single day...... 15 viewings....... There are MULTIPLE offers. The people making offers right now are even giving incentive aka signing bonus, to have the luxury of renting.

It's gone from being a buyers market (for rentals) to a SELLERS market... If you have property in Toronto, and want to rent it out, you just hit a gold mine. True, you can't jack up rates 50% a year anymore... But, if you're looking to fill a unit, you can definitely GOUGE if you want.

So, don't worry... those fundamentals are changing fast. Coupled with reduced investments in new developments, the next 5 years will likely see additional gains in Toronto. Unless of course they build the hyperloop to Ottawa, or the hyper speed rail to detroit.. Then that might change things slightly.

Either way, RE isn't going to drop in Toronto. I can't speak for Oshawa, or Hamilton, or Barrie... but if your address is in Toronto, you will likely continue to see price appreciation
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Jan 26, 2016
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Toronto, ON
daivey wrote:
May 19th, 2017 8:15 pm
rental costs have gone up.. quite a bit actually.. and with the new regulation, it's only getting tighter.

friend put a condo up for rent and it had 15 viewings in a single day...... 15 viewings....... There are MULTIPLE offers. The people making offers right now are even giving incentive aka signing bonus, to have the luxury of renting.

It's gone from being a buyers market (for rentals) to a SELLERS market... If you have property in Toronto, and want to rent it out, you just hit a gold mine. True, you can't jack up rates 50% a year anymore... But, if you're looking to fill a unit, you can definitely GOUGE if you want.

So, don't worry... those fundamentals are changing fast. Coupled with reduced investments in new developments, the next 5 years will likely see additional gains in Toronto. Unless of course they build the hyperloop to Ottawa, or the hyper speed rail to detroit.. Then that might change things slightly.

Either way, RE isn't going to drop in Toronto. I can't speak for Oshawa, or Hamilton, or Barrie... but if your address is in Toronto, you will likely continue to see price appreciation
Just curious where was his condo?
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SmugDruggler wrote:
May 19th, 2017 7:22 pm
I don't know what I can say that you haven't been told before: you're comparing Manhattan, a single borough, to the entire Greater Toronto Area. That's not a valid comparison.


I do not know anything about the San Francisco market, so I'm not in a position to comment on it. I do know about the Toronto market, and I can say that I believe it's in a bubble. Even if it isn't in a bubble, the cost to rent in Toronto is so low compared to the cost to buy that it makes more sense to rent at this time. Could I be wrong? Of course! But that's where I'm putting my chips. You've made your bet that housing prices will continue to go up into the stratosphere. I see no fundamental reason for that to happen but I wish you luck.


You seem very concerned about my housing situation. Rest assured that I am adequately housed and quite comfortable where I am.
I didnt say they are going into the stratosphere, but there is no reason for it to crash right now either besides a few jittery sellers who will shake out in a few weeks before we return a little more to normalcy.
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Dec 27, 2013
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Toronto
WinterSleep wrote:
May 19th, 2017 8:28 pm
Just curious where was his condo?
liberty village
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Jan 16, 2009
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daivey wrote:
May 19th, 2017 8:15 pm
rental costs have gone up.. quite a bit actually.. and with the new regulation, it's only getting tighter.

friend put a condo up for rent and it had 15 viewings in a single day...... 15 viewings....... There are MULTIPLE offers. The people making offers right now are even giving incentive aka signing bonus, to have the luxury of renting.

It's gone from being a buyers market (for rentals) to a SELLERS market... If you have property in Toronto, and want to rent it out, you just hit a gold mine. True, you can't jack up rates 50% a year anymore... But, if you're looking to fill a unit, you can definitely GOUGE if you want.

So, don't worry... those fundamentals are changing fast. Coupled with reduced investments in new developments, the next 5 years will likely see additional gains in Toronto. Unless of course they build the hyperloop to Ottawa, or the hyper speed rail to detroit.. Then that might change things slightly.

Either way, RE isn't going to drop in Toronto. I can't speak for Oshawa, or Hamilton, or Barrie... but if your address is in Toronto, you will likely continue to see price appreciation
Your assessment of the rental market is correct. The new regulations will impact rental markets as potential buyer will seek to rent instead of buy.

This is why your conclusion is invalid. We are seeing less buyer and more seller. This explains lower sales and higher listing. It is a matter of time the house price will return to the norm Vs rent.

Unless you are getting 100% rent increase from your new renter, your re price is not gonna stay where it is couple of years from now.
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Sanyo wrote:
May 19th, 2017 10:28 pm
I didnt say they are going into the stratosphere, but there is no reason for it to crash right now either besides a few jittery sellers who will shake out in a few weeks before we return a little more to normalcy.
Price is always sticky in the way down for real estate.

But we should see sales volume continue to deteriorate until the correction finally comes sometime in the next couple of years.
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Aug 16, 2013
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Sanyo wrote:
May 19th, 2017 6:29 pm
The Greater New York Area has a population of over 20 million people or over three times the size of the GTA. The median household income in NYC is roughly around $55,000 or roughly around $74k CDN, about the same as the median income in Toronto.

HOWEVER... Manhattan average price of a CONDO -- not a house a CONDO is $2.1 million USD!. I guarantee Toronto is nowhere close to that.

Also according to Trulia the median house price in NYC is $1.329 MILLION USD! Or almost $1500 a square foot USD or over $2000 CDN per square foot https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/New_York-New_York/
Comparing NYC/Manhattan to Toronto hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha... This guy's so kyoooote!
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Veritate wrote:
May 20th, 2017 11:14 am
Comparing NYC/Manhattan to Toronto hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha... This guy's so kyoooote!
The point was look at how expensive manhattan is and the potential of all markets to go up (New York will also continue to move up).
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Feb 9, 2009
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SmugDruggler wrote:
May 19th, 2017 7:22 pm
I don't know what I can say that you haven't been told before: you're comparing Manhattan, a single borough, to the entire Greater Toronto Area. That's not a valid comparison.


I do not know anything about the San Francisco market, so I'm not in a position to comment on it. I do know about the Toronto market, and I can say that I believe it's in a bubble. Even if it isn't in a bubble, the cost to rent in Toronto is so low compared to the cost to buy that it makes more sense to rent at this time. Could I be wrong? Of course! But that's where I'm putting my chips. You've made your bet that housing prices will continue to go up into the stratosphere. I see no fundamental reason for that to happen but I wish you luck.


You seem very concerned about my housing situation. Rest assured that I am adequately housed and quite comfortable where I am.
No that 1.329 mil is all of Nyc. Manhattan alone is much more expensive.
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Aug 16, 2013
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Sanyo wrote:
May 20th, 2017 11:37 am
The point was look at how expensive manhattan is and the potential of all markets to go up (New York will also continue to move up).
The point is you are comparing a global financial hub to Toronto and it is like comparing a Bentley to a Hyundai.
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Veritate wrote:
May 20th, 2017 12:22 pm
The point is you are comparing a global financial hub to Toronto and it is like comparing a Bentley to a Hyundai.
Funny that. When I compare Bangkok to Toronto saying prices in Bangkok were actually higher in the past few years, people here tell me it's not a valid comparison.

So, what city can Toronto be compared to satisfy your bashing? New Orleans or perhaps Detroit?

How about Buffalo?
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BiegeToyota wrote:
May 20th, 2017 8:26 pm
Funny that. When I compare Bangkok to Toronto saying prices in Bangkok were actually higher in the past few years, people here tell me it's not a valid comparison.

So, what city can Toronto be compared to satisfy your bashing? New Orleans or perhaps Detroit?

How about Buffalo?
How about you use price:income ratios? That's where this whole conversation started and where it should have ended.
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Housing bear who won't be a bear forever.
Follow my journey through the Toronto housing bubble on Twitter: @SoSudsy
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SmugDruggler wrote:
May 20th, 2017 8:38 pm
How about you use price:income ratios? That's where this whole conversation started and where it should have ended.

Doesn't work anymore, anywhere.

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