Real Estate

Merged: GTA RE Bubble Bursting Bearish news and updates

  • Last Updated:
  • Sep 2nd, 2018 8:27 am
Deal Addict
User avatar
Dec 27, 2007
1043 posts
383 upvotes
Oshawa
I wonder if your the only person hoping for this? I'm sure if there were a correction and the market was flooded with people having your mindset everyone would place nice in the sandbox when it came to upgrading.
BiegeToyota wrote:
May 27th, 2017 10:09 am
Let's see.

Unlike the real estate bashers on this forum who pretend not to care much is the market crashes, I really do wish for that to happen. 30% correction would be ideal for me. Tax free sale on my condo and buying something bigger the same day.

I can only hope.
Penalty Box
User avatar
Dec 13, 2016
1942 posts
1473 upvotes
ud8077 wrote:
May 27th, 2017 10:14 am
I thought you were living outside of Canada? How do you get to sell it tax free if it's not your primary residence?
It would be tax free as I wouldn't make any profit on it hence my incredible enthusiasm for the market crash.

However, I have a feeling it is not happening.
Deal Addict
Jul 3, 2007
1149 posts
1243 upvotes
Toronto
jonnyb wrote:
May 27th, 2017 10:00 am
Where do you keep getting this "30%" from...why not 40, 50, 60%? Is that your wildest fantasy, the market crashing?

Is the market changing, sure...look at the number of new listings. The market has become saturated with them, people trying to cash out.
whats another 16.6% by fall? easily do-able ....
Newbie
May 2, 2017
71 posts
55 upvotes
Let's see how the government ruin the free market. The government can confiscate all the lands right now. Communism is coming
Member
May 2, 2017
270 posts
408 upvotes
Calvin140 wrote:
May 27th, 2017 10:35 am
Let's see how the government ruin the free market. The government can confiscate all the lands right now. Communism is coming
how is it communism? no one is confiscating lands.
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Jul 14, 2008
7861 posts
1416 upvotes
Ontario
joepipe wrote:
May 27th, 2017 9:50 am
Richmond hill is down -13.4% this month over last, as per zolo , could easily hit 30% by Fall.....

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-hill-real-estate/trends
One segment of the GTA, one month. You posted a chart for Toronto, and I asked for any time in history past where you can justify a correction of 30% in a given year (let alone a couple seasons).

Here's a hint: you can't. Largest YoY in past corrections was 8%. So yes, your number is a wild number and certainly without precedent in Toronto's past (which you have 3 corrections to compare with). And that assumes this is even the start of a correction, or just temporary in response to proposed measures.
Deal Expert
May 30, 2005
40403 posts
1979 upvotes
Richmond Hill
joepipe wrote:
May 27th, 2017 9:50 am
Richmond hill is down -13.4% this month over last, as per zolo , could easily hit 30% by Fall.....

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-hill-real-estate/trends
When sales volume are so low, as they are this year, the average selling price will be heavily skewed depending on what's sold in the year. For example, if there happened to be a lot of towns and semis sold this month compared to last month, when a lot of people were buying detached homes, then the average sales price will be skewed on low volume sales.
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Penalty Box
Nov 18, 2014
665 posts
563 upvotes
Toronto, ON
onlineharvest wrote:
May 27th, 2017 4:40 pm
One segment of the GTA, one month. You posted a chart for Toronto, and I asked for any time in history past where you can justify a correction of 30% in a given year (let alone a couple seasons).

Here's a hint: you can't. Largest YoY in past corrections was 8%. So yes, your number is a wild number and certainly without precedent in Toronto's past (which you have 3 corrections to compare with). And that assumes this is even the start of a correction, or just temporary in response to proposed measures.
Doesn't matter that the largest YoY decline was 8% in the past. This is a new paradigm. The fundamentals do not apply and it certainly is different here and different this time.
Sr. Member
Dec 3, 2013
594 posts
247 upvotes
Brampton/waterloo
Can you show me a comparable, as in similar upgrades similar age, same frontage, similar square footage, one that sold in april and one that sold in march for 13.4% less?
Youre relying on one months data, in one area, that too in a month where number of sales dropped drastically. Instead of overall "average" can we break it down to average detached price, average semi price and average town price?
Heres an extreme but to get my point across, in april 100 60ft detached houses sell in Rhill average price of 3m and in may 10 town houses sell for average price of 1m, does this mean a month over month decline of 67%???
Penalty Box
Nov 18, 2014
665 posts
563 upvotes
Toronto, ON
RamneekSingh76 wrote:
May 27th, 2017 7:08 pm
Can you show me a comparable, as in similar upgrades similar age, same frontage, similar square footage, one that sold in april and one that sold in march for 13.4% less?
Youre relying on one months data, in one area, that too in a month where number of sales dropped drastically. Instead of overall "average" can we break it down to average detached price, average semi price and average town price?
Heres an extreme but to get my point across, in april 100 60ft detached houses sell in Rhill average price of 3m and in may 10 town houses sell for average price of 1m, does this mean a month over month decline of 67%???
it's the same metric quoted and used everywhere when prices were increasing. Were you moaning and complaining then as well?
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Jul 14, 2008
7861 posts
1416 upvotes
Ontario
rkanwar109 wrote:
May 27th, 2017 7:01 pm
Doesn't matter that the largest YoY decline was 8% in the past. This is a new paradigm. The fundamentals do not apply and it certainly is different here and different this time.
So bulls are ridiculed for saying 'this time it's different', but bears can say 'this time it's different' when predicting a decrease with no precedent?

Gotcha. ;)
Member
May 2, 2017
270 posts
408 upvotes
Jon Lai wrote:
May 27th, 2017 7:00 pm
When sales volume are so low, as they are this year, the average selling price will be heavily skewed depending on what's sold in the year. For example, if there happened to be a lot of towns and semis sold this month compared to last month, when a lot of people were buying detached homes, then the average sales price will be skewed on low volume sales.
Oh really? can you expand on where you got his info? where did you find data backing up your claim that lots more semis and towns were sold?
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Jul 14, 2008
7861 posts
1416 upvotes
Ontario
rkanwar109 wrote:
May 27th, 2017 7:16 pm
it's the same metric quoted and used everywhere when prices were increasing. Were you moaning and complaining then as well?
Actually, bulls focused more on YoY figures instead of harping on one mid month figure in one segment of the GTA, whose averages can easily be skewed by a 60% reduction in sales activity. Bears are losing their minds like a fresh piece of meat was just thrown in a shark tank. Equally silly IMO. Especially if this is a temporary result that shifts Ina couple months.

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