Real Estate

Merged: GTA RE Bubble Bursting Bearish news and updates

  • Last Updated:
  • Oct 17th, 2018 8:04 am
Deal Fanatic
Feb 29, 2008
5631 posts
1296 upvotes
As I said previously. They will look dumb when they realize their invisible boogeyman "foreign investor" isn't the problem. Unfortunately for our government, they're going to actually have to do some heavy lifting if they want things to change. For instance, take an active approach to resolving a lot of the unecessary gridlock in the city. Public transit should be top priority. Enough of this pandering to the burbs and bending over for the mighty car. Also need more affordable housing. Need more housing built for actual families and not investors or students. Simple supply and demand.
Sr. Member
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Feb 9, 2009
719 posts
284 upvotes
Of course other efforts are needed too. How would you suggest to stimulate building more affordable housing for rent?

What areas of the city do you think should be barred from car traffic?
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Feb 9, 2009
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GalvToronto wrote:
Jun 5th, 2017 12:05 am
In the August prepare for no listing and low sales month, that will be the time when market will explain to buyers that they are miserable losers without any choice.
What is the share of people engaged in double house deals? If that guy cancels selling his old house, wouldn't that mean him also cancelling buying his new one? So why there will be no listings?
Sr. Member
Mar 20, 2017
852 posts
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arnycus wrote:
Jun 5th, 2017 7:58 am
What is the share of people engaged in double house deals? If that guy cancels selling his old house, wouldn't that mean him also cancelling buying his new one? So why there will be no listings?
Only people like him are still on the market from selling side.
He creates listings every week, then terminates and creates another one - spamming.
Once he loses his hope to sell the house (in July) - he will cancel his offer and stop trying to sell existing house for whatever price. There will be game over for listings.
All desperate people will disappear and only savvy sellers will be on the market who don't want to sell for a bargain price and will not list anything for a while.
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Feb 9, 2009
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I should probably read that thread, but double house deals would slow down anyway in times of uncertainty. What remains unclear, of he cancels the listing for the old house, will he be paying mortgage for both houses and renting the old one, or abandon moving to the new house?
Deal Expert
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Apr 21, 2004
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I think people will just have to sell their homes first, if they don't intend to hold two or mortgages, before bidding on another one. I know there is the potential additional cost of temporary abode and storage but it's better to be able to sleep more soundly at night.
Last edited by alanbrenton on Jun 5th, 2017 9:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
Sr. Member
Mar 20, 2017
852 posts
620 upvotes
I previously mentioned that active listings numbers are still increasing, but significantly slowing down.
For city of Toronto numbers are:
1)In the middle of May they increased on average to 69/day
2)End of may - 29/day
3)In the first 4 days of June we have total 33 acive listings increase - its now 8.25/day

Not enough days yet to make some strong judgements, will see on Friday...But so far all evidences support the idea that we will see decreasing of active listings in June.
Deal Addict
Feb 22, 2011
4471 posts
4167 upvotes
Toronto
GalvToronto wrote:
Jun 5th, 2017 4:38 pm
I previously mentioned that active listings numbers are still increasing, but significantly slowing down.
For city of Toronto numbers are:
1)In the middle of May they increased on average to 69/day
2)End of may - 29/day
3)In the first 4 days of June we have total 33 acive listings increase - its now 8.25/day

Not enough days yet to make some strong judgements, will see on Friday...But so far all evidences support the idea that we will see decreasing of active listings in June.
In the last 14 years only last year May had less active listings than May 2017. People still focus on the huge increase when really 2016 was the anomaly.
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Aug 19, 2002
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What is considered an "active" listing?
Sr. Member
Dec 3, 2013
595 posts
247 upvotes
Brampton/waterloo
rjg4235 wrote:
Jun 5th, 2017 4:40 pm
In the last 14 years only last year May had less active listings than May 2017. People still focus on the huge increase when really 2016 was the anomaly.
I agree, but in the past 14 years, I dont think there has been a 33%+ yoy growth, and government intervention and the Home capital issue. The effects might be additive
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Apr 21, 2004
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RamneekSingh76 wrote:
Jun 6th, 2017 4:06 pm
I agree, but in the past 14 years, I dont think there has been a 33%+ yoy growth, and government intervention and the Home capital issue. The effects might be additive
If they want to kill the market, they would have raised the interest rates already. That would be the single most potent solution but it may stall the economy and result in job losses, amplifying any downward spiral.

24% for detached. 33% is overall which is understandable since condo units weren't going up as fast as the ground type units over the past decade.
Deal Fanatic
May 1, 2012
7536 posts
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Markham
RamneekSingh76 wrote:
Jun 6th, 2017 4:06 pm
I agree, but in the past 14 years, I dont think there has been a 33%+ yoy growth, and government intervention and the Home capital issue. The effects might be additive
I just wanna hammer this home, but HCG's issues aren't business issues.. they are confidence issues. These aren't the same thing.
Sr. Member
Dec 3, 2013
595 posts
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Brampton/waterloo
alanbrenton wrote:
Jun 6th, 2017 4:13 pm
If they want to kill the market, they would have raised the interest rates already. That would be the single most potent solution but it may stall the economy and result in job losses, amplifying any downward spiral.

24% for detached. 33% is overall which is understandable since condo units weren't going up as fast as the ground type units over the past decade.
I still dont think they wanted to kill the market or anything, and the effects seem to be temporary as again there is no real catalyst to drop pricing significantly. Since the overall 33% news, It seems like buyers are thinking that it is a lot of growth within a year so chances that it might decrease, but there is no reason as of yet to cause YOY to drop.
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Apr 21, 2004
45503 posts
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RamneekSingh76 wrote:
Jun 6th, 2017 4:26 pm
I still dont think they wanted to kill the market or anything, and the effects seem to be temporary as again there is no real catalyst to drop pricing significantly. Since the overall 33% news, It seems like buyers are thinking that it is a lot of growth within a year so chances that it might decrease, but there is no reason as of yet to cause YOY to drop.
In my view, the 33% came too abruptly and it just put the market closer to the peak.

1 year 33%, 2nd year 0% =

1st year 15, 2nd year 15% give or take

I don't think prices will drop too much, sellers are just accepting more rationale offers. like what people are saying on RFD, the increased inventory is but 1-2 months supply, not year's worth of housing stock. Supply is still very much curtailed so prices will stay about where it is, might dip, might slightly go up.

Really depends on mortgage interest rates, capacity to borrow, the job market and immigration, how investments (stocks, bonds, private investments) are doing and the other side -- households downsizing, deaths, inheritance

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