I won't repeat what MM has said. Good stuff. What is also interesting is that the Feds are ratcheting up standards in 2020, 2025 and 2030. This will also have a profound effect on manufacturers. Some will need to make radical changes to meet these requirements and may not have the financial strength to do it. As far as 2019, I think the industry is already seeing the post grant slump from GreenON, which will drive some players (as MM noted) out of business..... until the next grant.
missymouse wrote: ↑Nov 5th, 2018 2:49 pmMy opinion only based on years and years of business experience.
The GreenON fallout will result in a significant number of the smaller dealers exiting the business because of the hidden costs of dealing with late deliveries, order errors, rejected GreenOn apps and the general costs of 1st ramping the staff up and now reducing the staff. I still can’t understand how an industry on the whole thought they could increase volume in manufacturing, supply and installation without any kind of planning. Already manufacturers are shedding factory workers, reducing shifts and cancelling material orders.
It’s going to take into the summer of 2019 for the completion of all the debris left over from poor and incomplete installs and these are now being done at the expense of either the installer or the dealer. For example, I’ve got customers who I signed with a previous employer and they are now on their 6th service call to resolve install issues. They aren’t making money............................................
Culturally, inside the organizations, there is going to be an inward focus on who is going to lose their job, who is going to have their contracts terminated and where will they find work come January. Having seen this in numerous industries, the one thing I can promise you, it will be ugly and there will be zero focus on customers. Simply put, the majority of these companies have neither the management knowledge nor skills to maneuver this minefield. Shortly, they will reduce their sale force by 60-70% because of a lack of potential leads or simply a lack of sales, reduce their GreenON staff 100% come November 30th and shortly thereafter reduce their installation crews by 60-70%. Internally the atmosphere will be toxic, externally it will destroy reputations.
Prices will rise come the end of March, probably in the 4% neighbourhood with some dealers tacking on a few points for themselves. Tariffs themselves on the base product were and remain 6.5% so that won’t have a dramatic impact, the same for polymers and paints used in manufacture.
You will continue to see behind the scenes amalgamation of manufacturers with the larger dealers. Already Northstar has bought into Brock, Nordik has bought Consumers Choice, Northern Comfort, Verdun and Beverly Hills. I would look for fewer options, lesser quality and less product selection overall as the result of this trend. The downside for consumers is that you now have to be very aware of where you are getting your “competitive” quote from.
A spin-off from this might be the formation of dealer alliances similar to the franchise support groups in fast food. For example, Vinylbilt dealers might work towards jointly combining orders for larger volumes.
There will be a plethora of lawsuits from customers who either didn’t qualify for GreenON, were not installed in time for GreenON or who have subsequently found the install to be shoddy and improperly done. These have a tendency to be drawn out affairs and are corrosive over time. You will in all likelihood have a few nuisance class actions against the larger dealers or possibly the PC Government. Certification for a CA would not be difficult and if you’re a larger dealer with hundreds of unhappy customers it wouldn’t be hard to have a disgruntled customer lead the way.
There should be the incentive for both the smaller and midsized dealers to start to automate or computerize their quoting and ordering systems to eliminate errors and omissions. There are huge disconnects between the manufacturers and the dealers in almost every point of contact. From how the information is sent, how it is confirmed to who it is scheduled and delivered all need serious work. From a customer perspective, there is great value in knowing exactly what you are actually buying and having it presented in a clear and concise manner.
My take only BTW