I didn't see the positives in the notes, I see it in the cash flow statement. that is why you have to read the financial reports.treva84 wrote: ↑Apr 2nd, 2016 10:45 am- I haven't bothered to read the annual reports (I have no interest in a company like BB) but if it's "common sense investing" why i) can't other readers easily identify what you are seeing and why ii) do you need to go to the notes of the financial tables to see the positives. If it's so easy, shouldn't it be glaringly obvious?
Actually, I am the odd ball here. Most people has bad opinions on Blackberry, I am the contrarian. So, people don't my opinion, not that I don't consider theirs. in fact, I came into reviewing blackberry with a negative mindset. But after I have done the review, I found some positive things.
Well, if you tone into their conference calls (and every other companies' conference calls), you will notice that analysts' questions are mostly for the purpose of producing numbers for their next estimate of revenue and net income. Analysts don't know and don't care where the company is going, they just need the numbers for their next estimate (including numbers to base their forecasts on).treva84 wrote: ↑Apr 2nd, 2016 10:45 am- You are exhibiting over-confidence, in that you feel you can do a better job than the professional analysts who do this on Bay / Wall Street (the fact of the matter is both of you will likely do a mediocre job forecasting the future but that's besides the point).
At $10, the company is selling for around 5 billion and change. From my understanding of the company's "free" cash flow generation capability, it will only take them 5 - 7 years to produce that much cash. I think $10 is undervalued. The reason why I used $10 is because it is selling around this price. I will still buy it even if it is selling at $13/share. At $13/share, the company is still undervalued in today's interest rate environment. If it goes to $20/share, I will be backing off as it's more or less fairly to overvalued should interest rate goes up.treva84 wrote: ↑Apr 2nd, 2016 10:45 am- You call yourself a value investor but you are anchoring (another bias) at $10 / share, but you make no mention of assessing the intrinsic value of the company (which would be difficult to calculate for this company with a changing business model). Why did you select $10 as your entry point? Simply because BB it dropped recently?
With $13/share, the company is worth around 6.78 billion, at $20/share, the company is worth around 10.4 billion.
You are getting there, keep on reading investing books/articles/reports written by well known investors (not analyst reports). You should get the data from the source, not from some websites such as Yahoo and Google. If you compare the data from these websites, to their actual reports, you will notice many weird things.