Investing

The New Blackberry (TSE:BB, NYSE:BBRY)

  • Last Updated:
  • Oct 30th, 2023 4:26 pm
Tags:
None
Deal Guru
Jan 25, 2007
12694 posts
7861 upvotes
Paris
pokemoncollector wrote: Thanks. I skimmed the headline sand I found some headline about Ford adopting QNX in 2014 and thought that's when it went mainstream. I don't know when it first hit the market, so their claim to fame of 175 million vehicles is hard to understand the scope of that... 6 years is one thing.. but if it's 25 years in the making to hit 175 million then that's not that good..
I thought Daimler-Chrysler was one of the first, and it would have been around 2005 I think, so only 15 years ago. Ford flirted with Microsoft radios and such for quite a while though too. Adoption of some sort of standard takes a while, and it seems to me QNX has come out on top, so they should be going up for the next few years anyways.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Jan 19, 2007
1451 posts
811 upvotes
Torontario
Jerico wrote: QNX has been around since well before 2014. My 2008 Jeep ran on it, and when my wife worked at BB and they bought QNX, they wired up a 2009 Wrangler with playbooks in the headrest, and added all kinds of screens for 4 wheeling data and camera for optimizing approach angles etc.
QNX is around from before the times someone decided to embed it in car computers.
Power-stations used to run on QNX Neutrino.
Banned
Jul 10, 2020
193 posts
161 upvotes
jerryhung wrote: Any stock - GME, BB, PLTR - just need to be on WSB (reddit WallStreetBets) and you can pop without anything, or fundamentals, or anything LOL
BB and PLTR have a business though with revenue growth potential.

GME is a dumpster fire - and it's comparable to when Hertz went bankrupt. There is no turn around story with GME. People are pretending there is, to get the next tranche of investors in, so that they can sell out. But GME can't grow it's revenues. It's effectively linked to boom and bust cycles of the console market. And every year that cap shrinks as places like Amazon/WalMart/Shoppers/Costco/BestBuy chip away at them.

PLTR I believe is hitting it's price peak relative to it's earnings. It's way over valued at this point. Any price increase from here is due to MEME factor. at $50billion-$60billion market cap, with revenues less than BB. Though, I don't know what their revenue growth model/target is. BB seems more clearly defined (assuming it works).

BB seems like it has the ability to double and triple it's revenues in the next few years.


BUT, the cynic in me thinks that it's current price of $15 USD already accounts for the potential doubling of revenue growth.. But the other question is, should their revenue/earnings growth be priced higher (higher multiples) and more in line with a company like PLTR or CloudFare? Because BB does not seem to be valued in the same way.
If they are valued the same way, or thought of in the same way, then, BB's market cap could explode to $50billion as well. Which is a 5x from current price.. Which means we're looking at $50 - $60 price target?
Deal Addict
User avatar
Jul 5, 2008
2178 posts
2040 upvotes
By the Large Bay
QNX is an RTOS from the early 80's. Blackberry bought the product/company about 10 yrs ago.

From the helicopter level it's akin to Android, Windows, MacOS, etc. It's the core of the vehicle systems but still requires layers on top of it to provide the user functions. There are many RTOS's out there. In the mid 80's I was developing machine control systems using VRTX & C on Moto 68k's. That OS is still out there too.

https://blackberry.qnx.com/en/rtos/what ... ng-system/
Deal Addict
Sep 2, 2004
3138 posts
2299 upvotes
Good summary OP. There's already another BB thread so you could have used that.

What about Cylance? Didn't see it mentioned in your original post but that's definitely positioned in an attractive growth area (cyber security - breach and virus prevention). I don't know enough to say the potential of this business division compared to their peers so I'm curious to hear other's thoughts on it.

https://www.blackberry.com/us/en/cylance
Banned
Jul 10, 2020
193 posts
161 upvotes
Capt. wrote: Good summary OP. There's already another BB thread so you could have used that.

What about Cylance? Didn't see it mentioned in your original post but that's definitely positioned in an attractive growth area (cyber security - breach and virus prevention). I don't know enough to say the potential of this business division compared to their peers so I'm curious to hear other's thoughts on it.

https://www.blackberry.com/us/en/cylance
Yeah I saw the other thread resurected from the dead and thought about posting it there, but I don't know if's the right thread for this. Also it's like 100 pages long and doesn't really discuss some of new things going on.

with regards to cyclance; seems interesting.
admittedly I didn't deep dive this.
I mean this could be one of those things that if they partnered with Dell/IBM/HP/Apple, and came pre-installed on the computers, that could be a good revenue driver. but it's a 'hole' in my knowledge of BB that I need to fill.
just looking at Cyclance website seems inteerst.. AI powered antivirus... but I never heard about it before!! so they need to up their marketing game!
Deal Addict
Sep 2, 2004
3138 posts
2299 upvotes
I also don't know much about Cyclance as I mentioned. I believe BB bought them for 1.5B but that number could be wrong.

Among other IT companies of course, I know we use Palo Alto and Okta at my work. I believe we use them on a global level and they have performed phenomenally for us in these covid times. (large multinational organization) I'm not sure if Cyclance is comparable to either of these really. I do know that people have also compared them to CRWD as well.
Sr. Member
Oct 16, 2008
997 posts
182 upvotes
Toronto
BB was too early with QNX back in 2014, but I think the time is right now. With EV and data security I can see them becoming a market leader in this security space again.
Member
Aug 27, 2012
389 posts
45 upvotes
Toronto
Thinking about jumping on BB train on Monday, what you guys thought on that?
Deal Addict
User avatar
Jul 5, 2008
2178 posts
2040 upvotes
By the Large Bay
In the next 24 hrs we should have a much better idea how BB will trade on Monday morning. Using my hindsight trading model I'll report back after the 24hr period has ended Winking Face
Member
Jul 23, 2020
290 posts
240 upvotes
porticoman2 wrote: or back to $14cdn or even $10 by EOW

coin flip ....
Already trading at $15 after market, will hit $20 cdn EOW, a lot of institutional investors go in the past two weeks at $11.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Jul 5, 2008
2178 posts
2040 upvotes
By the Large Bay
porticoman2 wrote: I personally dont have the stomach for BB, its the way it is.

understanding you posted that you are holding the stock on the TSX & options on the US exchange - please post pre-market Monday what you would trade
My comment was a tongue in cheek response to the price guesses but there's only a "wink" emoticon available. :)

The hindsight trading model accurately predicts stock prices for a given period of time at the end of said period of time. It's mostly useful for shoulda-woulda-coulda type trades LOL

I'll likely just sit on the 500 C$ shares and 10c of Mar & Sep U$ calls
Sr. Member
Jun 2, 2017
786 posts
390 upvotes
As volatile as BB has been in the past 5 years I also feel it has room to run especially with the momentum in cybersecurity and EV plays
Member
Jul 23, 2020
290 posts
240 upvotes
CEOofPopeyes wrote: As volatile as BB has been in the past 5 years I also feel it has room to run especially with the momentum in cybersecurity and EV plays
Seeing how 5 years ago BB was still making smartphones, they deserve what has happened to them in that field, but the pivot of communication into Autos is what will skyrocket this company into the future.
Deal Addict
Dec 5, 2009
2789 posts
3289 upvotes
In today's inflated market cap world where revenues are almost meaningless, BB's market cap is severely undervalued. BB's market cap could easily double or triple from here, and it would still be undervalued compared to the rest of the market (not just WSB picks).
Member
Nov 30, 2006
303 posts
143 upvotes
Alpine84 wrote: In today's inflated market cap world where revenues are almost meaningless, BB's market cap is severely undervalued. BB's market cap could easily double or triple from here, and it would still be undervalued compared to the rest of the market (not just WSB picks).
+1. For this reason I'll buy in on Monday with a small position of approx 250 shares and ride the wave and see what happens this week.
2021 has not been the year of realistic market valuations. FOMO, Retail Investors, Robin Hood, COVID 19 money, WSB..... the perfect storm.
Deal Addict
Dec 5, 2009
2789 posts
3289 upvotes
batMan07 wrote: +1. For this reason I'll buy in on Monday with a small position of approx 250 shares and ride the wave and see what happens this week.
2021 has not been the year of realistic market valuations. FOMO, Retail Investors, Robin Hood, COVID 19 money, WSB..... the perfect storm.
I feel like the world is heading towards increasingly riskier investment/speculative strategies in order to maintain/chase ROI. When I was a kid it was all about savings accounts and bonds but now these vehicles are essentially useless in our low rate environment and with the amount of $ being printed. Just look at how pension funds have changed their investment strategy over the last 30+ years. We live in an environment where corporations like Chewy have a 43B MC, Affirm 30B MC, Uber 100B MC, AirBNB 120B MC, just to name a few (I haven't mentioned any true tech or EV or meme stocks either). None of these valuations make any sense if you use historical analytics like P/E ratios, EPS, etc. I think we are seeing the game change again, and historical ways to determine the valuation of a corporation may no longer be relevant to huge swaths of the market.

Top