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NOURIEL ROUBINI: Gold Will Plunge To $1,000

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  • Nov 22nd, 2013 9:51 am
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Feb 15, 2008
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Calgary
Firebot wrote: How is China making up the slack, if demand worldwide has dropped 21%?
You can read Rickson9's article as well as I can. Of course demand has dropped. India is the proverbial large elephant in the room. But China is ramping up.
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
Deal Addict
Aug 12, 2004
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Mark77 wrote: You can read Rickson9's article as well as I can. Of course demand has dropped. India is the proverbial large elephant in the room. But China is ramping up.
From the article:

"consumer demand in China was up 18% in the third quarter."

Consumer demand is quite different then commercial demand, and government policy. It's tiny in comparison.

Again, it's quite clear that gold has plenty more room to go down and the craziest bubble we have seen since the dot com bubble is finally starting to collapse.

Just think of this number. $37 billion. That's 37$ billion less then just one year ago on demand alone.

Chinese consumers are not going to save gold from bursting.
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Feb 15, 2008
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Firebot wrote: From the article:

"consumer demand in China was up 18% in the third quarter."

Consumer demand is quite different then commercial demand, and government policy. It's tiny in comparison.
Well there are those that argue that China is going into a deflationary crash, debt deflation, due to over-investment/malinvestment.

Again, it's quite clear that gold has plenty more room to go down and the craziest bubble we have seen since the dot com bubble is finally starting to collapse.
A "crazy bubble" where the producers generally aren't earning any margin? Come on now... Even you should know better than that. This isn't like Twitter that can be conjured up with a few hundred million worth of investment and almost no incremental investment once it becomes popular. Bringing on gold production has extremely long lead times in comparison.
Just think of this number. $37 billion. That's 37$ billion less then just one year ago on demand alone.
Every ounce coming out of the ground is being sold to someone.
Chinese consumers are not going to save gold from bursting.
Well we'll have to see, but certainly anything that diversifies the audience is welcome.
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
Member
May 10, 2009
213 posts
88 upvotes
Fed Minutes just released and they said they are looking for ways to keep short-term interest rates low for a long time after QE ends. Was wondering why gold would drop on this news. Correct me if I am wrong but I also thought low interest rates = higher gold prices?
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Aug 12, 2004
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Projek9 wrote: Fed Minutes just released and they said they are looking for ways to keep short-term interest rates low for a long time after QE ends. Was wondering why gold would drop on this news. Correct me if I am wrong but I also thought low interest rates = higher gold prices?
Belief of a recession or financial collapse = higher gold prices.

Lower interest rates on their own doesn't mean much. What it means though is that without interest rates rising, chances for the economy to be hurting are much lower. I would expect for gold prices to go back to the norm sub 1000 and stay at those levels for several years should things stay as they currently are (no crazy catalyst). The gold bubble days (the worst bubble since the dot.com bubble) are nearing its end.
Newbie
Nov 19, 2013
4 posts
Toronto
I think the recent gold price fall provides the perfect investment opportunity for those that want a piece of this precious metal. Many short sellers are cashing out but the truth is that gold is a hard commodity and limited in supply. Demand for physical bullion will always push prices back up. That's why I'm holding my gold and adding more reserves whenever prices fall. It is a better investment than paper money.
Deal Fanatic
Jun 27, 2007
5507 posts
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I'm watching that JUL low of 1175. If it holds, gold will bounce pretty hard for months to come. If it's violated, I'll be watching the volume. Previously, volume spike was huge when important levels were penetrated. TA shows gold near oversold levels and should reverse course.
Fundamentally, with QE not ending soon, it should be bullish for gold, but it's sagging badly. IMO, when the FED does taper, gold will start rising as inflation will rear it's ugly head. FED's BS public about interest rates, I think they will try to hold rates low, but will be forced to raise them. Notice 10y treasurys yield in a bullish pattern on weeklies and TLT failed to rally from oversold levels. It's just the beginning... Buying gold and shorting treasurys for long term. It's generational trade. IMO, long term portfolio should have room for gold, short bonds and long equities (just not at this levels).
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Feb 15, 2008
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Projek9 wrote: Fed Minutes just released and they said they are looking for ways to keep short-term interest rates low for a long time after QE ends. Was wondering why gold would drop on this news. Correct me if I am wrong but I also thought low interest rates = higher gold prices?
Yet interest rates were at historic highs when gold was last at a major all-time high, ie: 1980.

I personally view gold as being counter-cyclical to long-term T-bonds. And those are very low. The end of QE should be positive for gold as it will push long-term bond prices lower (ie: yields up).

IMHO, the traders running around selling gold and saying that the gold "bubble" is over have it completely wrong.
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
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May 17, 2013
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dlhunter wrote: I'm watching that JUL low of 1175. If it holds, gold will bounce pretty hard for months to come. If it's violated, I'll be watching the volume. Previously, volume spike was huge when important levels were penetrated. TA shows gold near oversold levels and should reverse course.
Fundamentally, with QE not ending soon, it should be bullish for gold, but it's sagging badly. IMO, when the FED does taper, gold will start rising as inflation will rear it's ugly head. FED's BS public about interest rates, I think they will try to hold rates low, but will be forced to raise them. Notice 10y treasurys yield in a bullish pattern on weeklies and TLT failed to rally from oversold levels. It's just the beginning... Buying gold and shorting treasurys for long term. It's generational trade. IMO, long term portfolio should have room for gold, short bonds and long equities (just not at this levels).
Do yourself a favor. Make sure to buy physical gold. Not the paper assets like GLD or gold mining companies. If you don't hold them, you don't own them.
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Feb 15, 2008
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sunshinemoonlight13 wrote: Do yourself a favor. Make sure to buy physical gold. Not the paper assets like GLD or gold mining companies. If you don't hold them, you don't own them.
Gold mining companies are *not* paper assets. Ownership of a gold mining company is ownership of a gold mine.
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
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May 17, 2013
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Mark77 wrote: Gold mining companies are *not* paper assets. Ownership of a gold mining company is ownership of a gold mine.
Watch the video below. Skip to 0:36. Hear from the CEO of a mining company himself -- not concerned about the share price. If I was a shareholder of a company, I will wish my CEO always cares about the share price.



After the IPO and secondary offerings, looks like they don't care about you. They print shares and you sheeples buy it up. Then they pay themselves real salaries.
Penalty Box
Apr 16, 2012
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Greely
mark..a few years ago, you were advocating to buy physical gold.
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May 17, 2013
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techcrium wrote: mark..a few years ago, you were advocating to buy physical gold.
Not the first time. I have noticed that contradicting one self is quite common with M77.
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techcrium wrote: mark..a few years ago, you were advocating to buy physical gold.
Sure. You should own some. Average worldwide is around 1% of portfolios, give or take. The people who go 30%, 50%, 100% gold, the so-called goldbugs, of course they're going to have results that are far more volatile than they need to be. Sure, gold may very well go a few thousand dollars higher, but the situation over the past 30 years has mostly been of a loss of value for gold.
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
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May 17, 2013
1775 posts
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Mark77 wrote: the situation over the past 30 years has mostly been of a loss of value for gold.
As mentioned before, you are conflicted again.

On one hand you need gold to succeed as an investor of gold mining companies. On the other hand, you want to project the appearance that owning gold mining company shares is better than physical gold, so you talk down owning physical gold.

Gold mining companies need gold prices to rise in order to succeed. Owners of physical gold could care less about the success of gold mining companies.

Do you have a comment about what that CEO said in the video? Its a very clear display of an attitude for their shareholders (aka cash cow, aka sheeples).
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Dec 13, 2007
2032 posts
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Toronto
sunshinemoonlight13 wrote: Watch the video below. Skip to 0:36. Hear from the CEO of a mining company himself -- not concerned about the share price. If I was a shareholder of a company, I will wish my CEO always cares about the share price.
Sunshine, get a life. Your petty attacks on M77 are laughable. You have no clue.

I wish there were more CEO like him. His job is to take care of production and sales. If profits are good, share price will follow. There is no other way he can affect it.

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