Investing

is now the time to invest in oil stocks?

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  • Oct 19th, 2019 6:45 am
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Deal Fanatic
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Dec 14, 2010
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theredstar wrote:
Dec 16th, 2014 12:03 pm
I would be very careful about oil stocks. I think oil will forever be cheap. Tar sands will not be economical anymore. You'll see giants like suncor and canadian natural resources go bankrupt. You'll be seeing $10 crude prices soon. Also, renewals are coming online so we won't need oil in 10 years.
Disagree. Simple basic example: the military depends on oil and there are no words of technology being changed. Until then, demand will continue.

Rod
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Jun 22, 2012
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Shhanada
Firebot wrote:
Dec 16th, 2014 12:49 pm
LOL. Wake me up when we have economically feasible electric planes that can go from New York to London, or nuclear power comes back.
I would tend to agree. However various companies are suggesting that very soon their compact reactors will be fitted to planes, trains, and trucks, and modules will power urban areas and commercial sites.

If fossil fuels are suddenly not needed for industrial, commercial, or transporation, that changes the energy demand parameters drastically.
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rodbarc wrote:
Dec 16th, 2014 1:32 pm
Disagree. Simple basic example: the military depends on oil and there are no words of technology being changed. Until then, demand will continue.

Rod
Actually there are a LOT of words about technology being changed. LMT is claiming compact reactors will power planes and cities within the next few years (yes, years, not decades).

http://www.lockheedmartin.ca/us/product ... usion.html
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Oct 27, 2014
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Toronto, ON
OP two weeks ago:
theredstar wrote:
Dec 1st, 2014 12:54 pm
I am thinking of investing in oil stocks.
OP today:
theredstar wrote:
Dec 16th, 2014 12:03 pm
You'll be seeing $10 crude prices soon. Also, renewals are coming online so we won't need oil in 10 years.
Deal Addict
Feb 7, 2006
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SurplusPlus wrote:
Dec 16th, 2014 1:40 pm
Actually there are a LOT of words about technology being changed. LMT is claiming compact reactors will power planes and cities within the next few years (yes, years, not decades).

http://www.lockheedmartin.ca/us/product ... usion.html
You read the link you posted?

Prototype is 5 years plus away
working production version is 10 years out and it would barely fit on a large truck
a version to power a plane will take a little longer
tons of obstacles to overcome including money! Gobs of it!
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Jul 7, 2013
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muppetslayer wrote:
Dec 16th, 2014 1:59 pm
OP two weeks ago:



OP today:
we should just do the opposite of what OP is saying and we'll be good.
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Jun 2, 2009
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Firebot wrote:
Dec 16th, 2014 12:49 pm
LOL. Wake me up when we have economically feasible electric planes that can go from New York to London, or nuclear power comes back.

Oil dependancy will continue until a proper alternative is discovered or a breakthrough in batteries is done. Solar power / wind turbines are not the answer and wildely inefficient. Oil is certainly not the long term solution as a non-renewable source, but it is what we have right now with current technology.
By the time we have economically feasible electric planes flying the trans-Atlantic, electric ground vehicles will already be the popular mode of transportation. Just replacing fuel use of that segment alone will reduce the overall demand of oil (Google: oil used by sector).

We will always have a use for oil as it can produce many good products, but burning it seems to be just a waste.
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Aug 12, 2004
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Xeros wrote:
Dec 16th, 2014 2:15 pm
By the time we have economically feasible electric planes flying the trans-Atlantic, electric ground vehicles will already be the popular mode of transportation. Just replacing fuel use of that segment alone will reduce the overall demand of oil (Google: oil used by sector).

We will always have a use for oil as it can produce many good products, but burning it seems to be just a waste.
People have been talking of the electric car which has been manufactured since the 1960's. The technology is not there. Tesla (as cool as it is) being the closest thing to a viable product is not the answer. All that electric cars will do should it ever hit the market is drive the price of electricity sky high, driving people back to oil. Even then, electricity in Canada is mostly generated from non-renewable sources. Simple supply and demand is what is at play.

http://www.electricvehiclesnews.com/His ... storyV.htm

Again we are talking of flying car syndrome. What seems so technologically close is actually very far away from economical and practical use.

It simply comes back down to the problem that is a lot more cost-effective oil available than prevously though even 10 years ago through techonogical advances and this oil is being extracted now through fracking and horizontal drilling. The US who was a net importer of oil, is now fully self-sufficient and able to produce more oil than Saudi Arabia. If anything cheap oil is going to significantly detract the push towards alternatives. The whole point of alternatives is to get away from a relative expensive limited non-renewable source of energy that is highly pollutant. The alternatives have to be better than what it is replacing.

I know that many try to figure out oil and energy without being in the industry, but some of these predictions are Jetsons science fiction territory.
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Dec 5, 2009
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Don't try and catch a falling knife. Wait for a bottom to form.
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Apr 16, 2012
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Greely
fdl wrote:
Dec 16th, 2014 4:33 pm
Don't try and catch a falling knife. Wait for a bottom to form.
What in the world does that even mean? How do you know a bottom has formed and it is not a dead cat bounce hence another knife catch?
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Jun 2, 2009
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Firebot wrote:
Dec 16th, 2014 3:15 pm
People have been talking of the electric car which has been manufactured since the 1960's. The technology is not there. Tesla (as cool as it is) being the closest thing to a viable product is not the answer. All that electric cars will do should it ever hit the market is drive the price of electricity sky high, driving people back to oil. Even then, electricity in Canada is mostly generated from non-renewable sources. Simple supply and demand is what is at play.

http://www.electricvehiclesnews.com/His ... storyV.htm

Again we are talking of flying car syndrome. What seems so technologically close is actually very far away from economical and practical use.

It simply comes back down to the problem that is a lot more cost-effective oil available than prevously though even 10 years ago through techonogical advances and this oil is being extracted now through fracking and horizontal drilling. The US who was a net importer of oil, is now fully self-sufficient and able to produce more oil than Saudi Arabia. If anything cheap oil is going to significantly detract the push towards alternatives. The whole point of alternatives is to get away from a relative expensive limited non-renewable source of energy that is highly pollutant. The alternatives have to be better than what it is replacing.

I know that many try to figure out oil and energy without being in the industry, but some of these predictions are Jetsons science fiction territory.
The electric car is at the cusp of being a valid and viable option. Tesla proved it can be done. Now it's just a question of how cheaply it can be done. There's no denying the movement towards renewable energy sources. You're only talking about 50 years of development of electric vehicles which is nothing compared to the development of ICE. I don't think there is turning back on this technology now.

I think the real question we should be asking is, while there is more cost-effective oil available now, *how* cost effective will it be when oil prices are dropping and still haven't found support yet? Will fracking and horizontal drilling still be profitable with low oil prices? Can these companies sustain prolong periods of low oil prices?

What I think is that people have had a taste of expensive oil and a taste of the possibilities of leaving oil and that they will continue on that path towards renewable energy sources.

I don't drive more now that fuel is cheaper, nor do I stop looking at fuel economy when looking for new cars.

I know for myself, as soon as a reasonable electric vehicle both in specs and price comes on the market, I'm out of the gasoline car. I suspect there are lots of people like myself.

How this translates to current oil prices and producers, I'm not too sure. I want to place my bet saying we won't see those record highs anytime soon.
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Dec 5, 2009
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techcrium wrote:
Dec 16th, 2014 4:38 pm
What in the world does that even mean? How do you know a bottom has formed and it is not a dead cat bounce hence another knife catch?
Dead cat bounce is a risk but regardless I would wait for a sustained upward move rather than buy on the way down. Or if you want to buy on the way down then buy in little chunks and dollar cost average.
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My watchlist in particular order of interest: XOM, COP, KMI -though debt/equity is questionable, EOG, KED & IMO.
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Surrey
Anyone looking at Husky? I want to start buying shares to hold for the long term.
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Shhanada
MMMM wrote:
Dec 16th, 2014 2:07 pm
You read the link you posted?

Prototype is 5 years plus away
working production version is 10 years out and it would barely fit on a large truck
a version to power a plane will take a little longer
tons of obstacles to overcome including money! Gobs of it!
His claim was that there are "no words of technology change" when in fact many people are talking about various scenarios where the need for oil is disrupted. Even you are talking about pro's and con's and slapping a delivery date on compact fusion. Remember, it doesn't need to work or be readily available, as long as people *believe* it could happen that could take the wind out of oil's sail in ways we've never seen. Perhaps it already has.

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