Investing

is now the time to invest in oil stocks?

  • Last Updated:
  • Nov 17th, 2017 1:44 pm
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Newbie
May 24, 2017
10 posts
2 upvotes
So many discounts right now in the oil market. I'm starting to feel greedy. I've been out of oil for almost 8 months.

CVE? CPG? MEG? CNQ?

Are you guys getting in? Another month of turmoil could make for even greater bargains.

Then again if a war breaks out in Qatar, the price could double overnight.
Member
User avatar
Jul 11, 2015
209 posts
97 upvotes
Victoria, BC
statisticalAnomaly wrote:
Jun 8th, 2017 3:56 pm
So many discounts right now in the oil market. I'm starting to feel greedy. I've been out of oil for almost 8 months.

CVE? CPG? MEG? CNQ?

Are you guys getting in? Another month of turmoil could make for even greater bargains.

Then again if a war breaks out in Qatar, the price could double overnight.
Say WHAT??? a war in Qatar? aren't they hosting the world cup or something there soon? man i have to start reading the news again.....
You're the average of the five people, you most associate with.
Deal Addict
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Dec 21, 2005
4966 posts
308 upvotes
Markham
jointedhornet wrote:
Jun 8th, 2017 4:08 pm
Say WHAT??? a war in Qatar? aren't they hosting the world cup or something there soon? man i have to start reading the news again.....
Qatar is barely a rounding difference for oil production. A war/coup in Iran would be a different story
:idea: :) :lol: :razz: :D
Newbie
Apr 23, 2017
87 posts
40 upvotes
I don't see oil rebounding for a couple years at least, but it mostly depends on government policies which are difficult to predict. Trump is heading in the right direction (towards a booming economy which uses energy without shame). Most others including Trudope are heading in the opposite (weak economy, heavy taxes, government subsidizing inefficient energy sources).
Member
Jun 28, 2016
205 posts
91 upvotes
statisticalAnomaly wrote:
Jun 8th, 2017 3:56 pm
So many discounts right now in the oil market. I'm starting to feel greedy. I've been out of oil for almost 8 months.

CVE? CPG? MEG? CNQ?

Are you guys getting in? Another month of turmoil could make for even greater bargains.

Then again if a war breaks out in Qatar, the price could double overnight.
I've started a small position in CNQ and averaged down in CPG, although both positions are still modest. No one knows where the bottom is, but I'm pretty sure that the top is considerably higher than where we are now, so I feel comfortable starting to get in again at these prices. I don't know whether I'll make money on these in 2017 or 2021, but, at some point, these stocks will likely be much higher than they are today. I've also started collecting pipelines again this past month, although those are less exciting positions.

NAFTA renegotiations remain a worry, as is a surprise in the UK election today, but, even if both go badly, I'm pretty confident that current price levels won't make sense once oil recovers (whether that's next year or five years from now) so I would just treat the aftermath as buying opportunities.
Newbie
Apr 11, 2017
51 posts
42 upvotes
Anyone play CL crude futures? Was long at $51 pre OPEC extension got stopped out several times. Brutal losses almost down daily since then. Unbelievable volatility.
Newbie
May 24, 2017
10 posts
2 upvotes
@Wavelet for the long term hold positions i'm looking at:
- under valued (assets > market cap)
- balance sheet ahead of it's peers
- natural gas being as much of a priority if not moreso than oil, LNG plays are bonus
- well established in the US

ENB fits this bill so I started a position their today which I intend on doubling/trippling this over the next few months.

that said, many of the smaller oil and gas companies which are well into the junk high-yield territory today will become the buyout targets of the giants tomorrow. the question of which ones get bought and which ones go to $0 will be my interesting research task for the coming months.

This is probably a two-year-to-profit endeavor but it's what i dream about at night and the first thing that i think of when i wake up :)


@jointedhornet - don't know if a war will actually start there. if it does, i don't know if it's a proxy war between Russia and it's allies and someone else. Qatar is #2 global LNG exporter, Russia is #1. It'll be interesting to find out what's going on here exactly, but given what I've seen from the Arabs in the last 30 years, everything is a charade and they don't just kiss and make up so easily. destabilization in the band of "brothers" could have effects all energy forms.
Jr. Member
Aug 16, 2015
141 posts
12 upvotes
in for a couple hundred shares of GXO here.

Should I hedge my CVE and GXO positions with a HOD position?
Deal Expert
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Sep 19, 2004
20289 posts
3088 upvotes
Waterloo
I'm surprised this is quiet, with oil at 10 month low and TSX is just ugly

They sell the bad news and good news
WTI down -3% on today's buillish EIA report


https://www.investing.com/analysis/oil- ... l#comments

I've gotta remind myself to never invest in Commodity again if I ever recover :P
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Newbie
Feb 15, 2016
23 posts
Guys what about PENN WEST at $1.60 aren't these prices amazing?? New name change coming. Great turnaround and re structure. Thoughts?
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Dec 21, 2005
4966 posts
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Markham
themountainsarecalling wrote:
Jun 21st, 2017 2:10 pm
Guys what about PENN WEST at $1.60 aren't these prices amazing?? New name change coming. Great turnaround and re structure. Thoughts?
All the companies with $50 or $55 as their assumptions for the corporate presentations are getting killed these days with oil at $42.xx

Haven't looked at pwt for ages...didn't know they sold almost everything. Just kinda crazy how much the big Canadian names like Baytex, PWT, Pengrowth, CPG have fallen
:idea: :) :lol: :razz: :D
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Apr 21, 2004
40852 posts
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Do you guys think there will be a retest of the $25/26 per barrel? Is the benchmark WTI Crude Oil?
Member
Jun 28, 2016
205 posts
91 upvotes
alanbrenton wrote:
Jun 21st, 2017 3:13 pm
Do you guys think there will be a retest of the $25/26 per barrel? Is the benchmark WTI Crude Oil?
It's possible, but, if so, it would probably not last long. The current drop is driven by American shale, Libya and Nigeria drastically increasing production. However, under 40, most shale is underwater, and new Libyan and Nigerian production is already nearing as high as it can go without major, new investment (which won't happen at these prices). Shale can keep alive as long as it has hedges, but most shale companies don't have more than a tiny part of their production hedged for 2018, which puts serious limits on their ability to produce oil below $40/barrel beyond 6 months out. To get under $30, you would probably need a recession or the OPEC deal falling apart in the next couple of months. Looking at the current economy, and taking into account the fact that Saudi Arabia wants higher prices for its IPO of Saudi Aramco, this seems unlikely. Of course, extremely bearish sentiment could maybe drive you there for a week or two, but then oil prices would shoot right back up.
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Sep 19, 2004
20289 posts
3088 upvotes
Waterloo
It's a catch 22 as Shale and everyone are literally drilling/digging their own graves by producing more

Nobody knows what the "balance/sweet spot" is , hopefully $40 US WTI will stop the insane US production
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Dec 28, 2007
3502 posts
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Alberta
charliebrown wrote:
Jun 21st, 2017 3:08 pm
All the companies with $50 or $55 as their assumptions for the corporate presentations are getting killed these days with oil at $42.xx

Haven't looked at pwt for ages...didn't know they sold almost everything. Just kinda crazy how much the big Canadian names like Baytex, PWT, Pengrowth, CPG have fallen
You forgot CVE. It's on a freefall with no bottom since the end of last year. This company is depressing.

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