Investing

is now the time to invest in oil stocks?

  • Last Updated:
  • Sep 21st, 2017 11:23 am
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Jr. Member
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Oct 14, 2015
198 posts
22 upvotes
I broke every trading rule I could think of, and bought BAYTEX ENERGY CORP (BTE) under C$3.00
Will buy more if it goes under C$2.00

Pure gamble/speculation.
If it goes low enough, someone will take them out. Or not.

BTE went to C$1.57 in Jan 2016 and popped 470% from there.

May is a bad month for the mighty BTE.
Other bad months are July, Sep, Jan, Aug, Nov, Dec.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seaso ... bol=BTE.TO
Deal Fanatic
Feb 1, 2006
9207 posts
314 upvotes
Bought CVE at 9.17. Hope it's at the point of maximum capitulation. The pain has to end soon for this. (but I'll sell if it goes down more than $.50 more)
Newbie
User avatar
Jun 15, 2017
41 posts
10 upvotes
jerryhung wrote:
Jun 21st, 2017 1:51 pm
I'm surprised this is quiet, with oil at 10 month low and TSX is just ugly

They sell the bad news and good news
WTI down -3% on today's buillish EIA report


https://www.investing.com/analysis/oil- ... l#comments

I've gotta remind myself to never invest in Commodity again if I ever recover :P
Yeah,I learned that painful mistake with potash about 10 years ago!
Sr. Member
Nov 28, 2010
857 posts
116 upvotes
Brampton
Wow oil and the market Just never seems to go up.
Member
Sep 23, 2010
227 posts
36 upvotes
TORONTO
Didn't Volkswagen just announce they were going all electric? Canadian oil companies could be on the permanent outs.
Newbie
Jun 28, 2017
40 posts
5 upvotes
Volvo is going all electric, not quite as bad for demand as VW doing the same. Unless I missed something.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Dec 21, 2005
4929 posts
273 upvotes
Markham
Ismellofhockey wrote:
Jul 7th, 2017 11:05 am
Volvo is going all electric, not quite as bad for demand as VW doing the same. Unless I missed something.
Volvo is moving away from vehicles that ONLY use combustion engine. So future vehicles will either be fully electric or hybrid
:idea: :) :lol: :razz: :D
Jr. Member
User avatar
Oct 14, 2015
198 posts
22 upvotes
This article is specific to Enterprise Products EPD-nyse, but posting here for the opinion on future oil demand.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/408634 ... many-years

Snip from the article:
Future of oil demand

I'm in the camp that believes demand for oil isn't close to leveling off. Not only is it probably going to continue to climb through 2040, it's likely to continue on past that point.

If it was up to consumers, it wouldn't even be an issue. People, overall, don't care about the emergence of electric cars. I draw that conclusion from their buying decisions, not on what the media reports.

As I've mentioned in a few articles recently, the electric vehicle hype in China has come crashing down as the Chinese consumer is projected to acquire 150 million SUVs by 2025. They're ignoring the government memo. That doesn't mean the EV market won't grow there, only that it isn't what is driving Chinese buying decisions, based upon the average 700 deaths per day from accidents. That has driven the Chinese away from smaller sedans as their vehicle of choice, including EV sedans.

This is important because China accounts for about half of all EV sales in the world. Other than general global demand and how it has an effect on the price of oil, this isn't that important to Enterprise because of where it does business.
Jr. Member
Aug 16, 2015
105 posts
11 upvotes
Wow wow. CPG has been sold so much the dividend is now nearing 4%

Oil sands are getting taken out back and shot.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Dec 21, 2005
4929 posts
273 upvotes
Markham
kilburn305 wrote:
Jul 7th, 2017 3:28 pm
Wow wow. CPG has been sold so much the dividend is now nearing 4%

Oil sands are getting taken out back and shot.
Even PEY a nat gas play is down to $22 (6% yield)...i had to drag the chart back to 2012 to find prices at the low 20s
:idea: :) :lol: :razz: :D
Newbie
Jun 27, 2012
69 posts
13 upvotes
Bought BTE at 2.94 a few days ago after the big drop for a short term play.
Sr. Member
Aug 17, 2008
524 posts
149 upvotes
Didn't post this yesterday assuming you saw it, but the stampede to exit isn't over.

"Apache joins foreign exit from Canada's energy sector" https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report- ... e35581223/

Excerpt;

"Apache announced late Thursday that it will complete what has been a staged departure from Canada by selling Alberta and British Columbia assets to Calgary-based Paramount Resources Ltd. Specifically, Paramount will acquire natural gas-focused Apache Canada Ltd. for $459.5-million, deepening the trend towards homegrown ownership in the Canadian energy industry."
Jr. Member
Jun 28, 2016
187 posts
76 upvotes
kilburn305 wrote:
Jul 7th, 2017 3:28 pm
Wow wow. CPG has been sold so much the dividend is now nearing 4%

Oil sands are getting taken out back and shot.
Ugh. I know. I have been getting killed on CPG. Started buying in the 14s, averaged down at 12, again just below 10. I mean, 3-4 years from now, I'm pretty sure I'll be fine, but right now, CPG is tearing a big hole in my portfolio. I've also been picking up CNQ, IPL and ENB on the way down, of which only ENB is not another loser right now.

Some time over the next 3 or 4 years, I'm pretty sure all of these names will have made me plenty of money, but, in the meantime, the paper losses are pretty brutal.

That's just how it goes sometimes though. Libya and Nigeria have already surprised on the upside by 300,000 barrels/day and are likely (or at least it's what the market is pricing in) to throw a few hundred thousand extra barrels/day on top of that onto the market over the next few months. That + shale gains largely wipes out the OPEC deal with the possibility of further downside if the existing deal falls apart (that's how we might fall into the 30s).

On the other hand (and this is why I'm comfortable holding my oil producing losers) current pessimism is rooted in the idea that the US will add 430,000 barrels/day (above where it is now) by the end of the year and another 780,000 barrels/day in 2018. As these are largely supposed to be shale gains, I'm pretty skeptical. Does shale really add 1,200,000 barrels/day over the next 18 months while oil prices are in the mid-40s? While oil servicing companies are raising their prices due to the growing rig count? While most shale companies are losing money at current prices and financing basically fell off a cliff in June?

Oil prices are falling off a cliff because traders are starting to price in US shale growing rapidly at mid-40s oil + record late-2017 and 2018 production in Libya and Nigeria + a serious risk that the OPEC deal will fall apart. But, as I don't think shale will grow much at $45/barrel, am well aware of the geopolitical risks associated with Libyan and Nigerian production and note that OPEC compliance has been very good so far, I think 2018 is not as hopeless as it's being made out to be right now, while 2019 should be a very good year for oil prices, unless we're hit by an economic crisis between now and then.
Deal Addict
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Dec 23, 2005
2644 posts
135 upvotes
Calgary
Is XEG a good choice? $9.50-$9.80 is a good entry point?
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