Investing

is now the time to invest in oil stocks?

  • Last Updated:
  • Jul 20th, 2017 3:10 pm
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Newbie
Aug 16, 2015
90 posts
6 upvotes
I'm scared of dividend cuts, i won't be averaging down until oil is sub 40.
Newbie
Nov 25, 2009
74 posts
16 upvotes
Vancouver
Oil is set to rise. Venezuela has 10 B left in its budget with 3.7 it must repay. US prod is slowing down.

I hold wayy too much stuff that relies on oil to succeed. What are you guy's thoughts?
Jr. Member
Jun 28, 2016
156 posts
49 upvotes
lawonga wrote:
Jul 17th, 2017 12:43 am
Oil is set to rise. Venezuela has 10 B left in its budget with 3.7 it must repay. US prod is slowing down.

I hold wayy too much stuff that relies on oil to succeed. What are you guy's thoughts?
I'm also seriously overweight in oil/pipelines/oil price exposed banks at the moment. On the subject of Venezuela, I suspect that their oil production will be the last thing to go, as it's all that's keeping the lights on. Having said that, most analysts project they'll still lose at least 200,000 bpd of production this year (they lost a bit more than that last year). On the other hand, Libya and Nigeria have added almost 500,000 bpd in the past couple of months, and they've been talking about adding another almost 400,000 bpd by the end of they year. I don't know whether their luck will hold for that long, but, if it does, that's a pretty big downside risk.

On top of that, if OPEC goes back to full production next March, then there's potential for another oil price crash in 2018, even if shale growth slows down. So, in the next 18 months, while there are a lot of catalysts for upside (security situations deteriorating in Libya/Nigeria again, Venezuela crashing harder than anticipated, shale production slowing due to lower prices, accelerating depletion in older oil fields, extremely low exploration investment) it may take a couple of years for these to play out. Barring a major recession (which is quite possible) I have high hopes for oil between now and 2020, but there's lots of volatility on the way between now and then.
Sr. Member
Nov 28, 2010
780 posts
92 upvotes
Brampton
Energy finally went up with XEG up almost 3%. Just need it to go up some more so can sell some more
Deal Addict
Nov 2, 2013
4448 posts
728 upvotes
Edmonton, AB
lawonga wrote:
Jul 17th, 2017 12:43 am
Oil is set to rise. Venezuela has 10 B left in its budget with 3.7 it must repay. US prod is slowing down.

I hold wayy too much stuff that relies on oil to succeed. What are you guy's thoughts?
It'll go back up. Just no one knows when.

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