Investing

is now the time to invest in oil stocks?

  • Last Updated:
  • Nov 17th, 2017 1:44 pm
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Deal Expert
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Sep 19, 2004
20292 posts
3088 upvotes
Waterloo
so hard to find winners in TSX, even though WTI has recovered to $48-$50 range

VII -12% today :( <- TD Action List Buy also..guess that's not a guarantee

CVE has been a mess since the $16 secondary issue (now $10.xx)
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Member
Jan 8, 2009
450 posts
69 upvotes
yeah vii down 17.6% by close, might have to average down here at some point. XD
Sr. Member
Nov 28, 2010
894 posts
124 upvotes
Brampton
XEG also down again. I thought it would be less volatile than HOU except HOU has been going up and up since the low to mid $5.xx but energy doesn't seem to want to climb higher
Deal Expert
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Sep 19, 2004
20292 posts
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Waterloo
Crude is up, nat gas is up, for the last few days
but TSX Energy is just flat to red.
Sentiment is so bearish it's unbelievable. Even I told myself to never invest in Energy again in my life :)

Many 52w lows broken on my holdings, from pipelines to utilities - RRX, ALA, IPL
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Newbie
Nov 12, 2014
71 posts
23 upvotes
Levis, QC
I started a small position in IPL today. Earlier this year I bought ALA and ENB (both red) yet I still think it's a good mid to long term play. Hopefully I'm not wrong !
Deal Expert
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Sep 19, 2004
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Waterloo
Corfius wrote:
Aug 9th, 2017 4:23 pm
I started a small position in IPL today. Earlier this year I bought ALA and ENB (both red) yet I still think it's a good mid to long term play. Hopefully I'm not wrong !
Same here, owing ALA, ENB, ENF, IPL, PPL (now sold)
I'm not THAT worried long-term, but to see it not reverse AT ALL even when crude reversed to ~$50 is very confusing and frustrated

Let's hope for 2nd half recovery as some analysts suggest
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Jr. Member
Aug 16, 2015
141 posts
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jerryhung wrote:
Aug 9th, 2017 4:32 pm
Same here, owing ALA, ENB, ENF, IPL, PPL (now sold)
I'm not THAT worried long-term, but to see it not reverse AT ALL even when crude reversed to ~$50 is very confusing and frustrated

Let's hope for 2nd half recovery as some analysts suggest
My Canadian stocks are an absolute disaster. I wish I avoided the TSX altogether at the moment. My US side is fine.

so much for GXO. RIP me.
Deal Expert
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Sep 19, 2004
20292 posts
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Waterloo
Crude -2.5%
Naturally, TSX POS stocks went down 2-5%
but they don't go up the same, ha

All my energy stocks are TSX
No energy on US side except ETP - honestly, what a relief, especially with SP500 near all-time highs

This title says it all, LOL

Canadian Energy Stocks Are Deeply Undervalued, And Nobody Cares | Seeking Alpha
https://seekingalpha.com/article/409876 ... body-cares
Relative to the price of crude, Canadian energy names are the weakest they have been since October 2015. This is despite the recent 15% rally in WTI prices, during which Canadian energy names actually lost ground relative to the price of oil.
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Deal Addict
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Oct 9, 2008
4032 posts
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Thornhill
Another advancement for Cheniere in it's quest to establish a foothold with China for long-term NG supply deals:

Cheniere Energy sets up China office to expand sales - sources

"Maggie Jia, senior marketing manager with Cheniere Asia who worked previously for Morgan Stanley and Japanese trading house Mitsui, will relocate from Singapore to head up the Beijing office, the sources with direct knowledge of the matter said.

Cheniere also recently hired Chris Li, who worked formerly with China National Offshore Oil Co (CNOOC) and with China's energy policy-setting agency, the National Energy Administration, the sources said."

https://af.reuters.com/article/commodit ... FL4N1L122W
Member
Jul 27, 2017
489 posts
138 upvotes
GTA
WTI oil will drop back to below $45 before year end.

Watch USO stock drop to just under $9 mark.
Sr. Member
Aug 17, 2008
593 posts
180 upvotes
These could be your two reasons for suppressed Cdn oil company share prices.

Posted Mar 30/17;
MrMom wrote:
Mar 30th, 2017 8:17 pm
... In the CVE press release under "Vendor take-back terms" it clearly stated what will be market overhang on the stock price for at least a year. I suspect people leaped first before doing their due diligence. The mkt we are in now is not the mkt of 6 months or 1 year ago.

What may support the Cdn stock price a bit is that COP will likely hold the USD CVE shares allowing them to unwind some USDCAD hedges and swaps now. Just a guess on my part.
Western Canada Select, the Canadian crude benchmark, trades at a spread to WTI. While I haven't followed the spread, it looks like via a couple of Google searches to be widening from May onwards.

Look to wear your oil holdings for longer if you are waiting for a recovery.
Newbie
Dec 31, 2015
56 posts
12 upvotes
jerryhung wrote:
Aug 15th, 2017 11:20 am
Every day
TSX down
Crude up or down = Either Oil companies down, or Pipelines down


Today notable from my holdings - ENB, PPL, CVE (of course) down 1-2% vs. USO -0.5%
Still holding my CVE with an average at $14.00. I'm in it for the long haul now. lol
Member
Feb 7, 2014
402 posts
19 upvotes
What's up with all the pipelines - ENB (as well as ENF), IPL, KEY, PPL ... all looking down ? Oil goes up, they don't go up. Oil goes down, and they are rolling along Grinning Face With Smiling Eyes
Member
Feb 26, 2017
300 posts
81 upvotes
Flowerp wrote:
Aug 15th, 2017 12:54 pm
What's up with all the pipelines - ENB (as well as ENF), IPL, KEY, PPL ... all looking down ? Oil goes up, they don't go up. Oil goes down, and they are rolling along Grinning Face With Smiling Eyes
The sentiment is extremely against energy and pipelines right now so any bad news is amplified.

The news that countries in Europe will be mandating a move away from combustion engines is a drag on stock prices. Its also not helped by IPL, ENF, KEY and ENB all missing their numbers last quarter.

For Canadian pipelines, the big foreign firms leaving has also hurt. Its a situation where their customers are now not as strong financially (ie. ConocoPhillips has a stronger balance sheet than Cenovus). It also doesn't help that oil sands projects are getting canceled which will lower their future potential growth.

Pipelines look significantly undervalued but I don't see this turning around quickly...

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