Investing

is now the time to invest in oil stocks?

  • Last Updated:
  • Nov 18th, 2017 1:13 pm
Tags:
Member
Feb 26, 2017
301 posts
81 upvotes
Wavelet wrote:
Nov 2nd, 2017 10:30 am
Bought both. I think that ENF is just contagion from ENB (its parent). ENF's earnings hit, unlike ENB, so I'm pretty sure it's unwarranted.
I just about tripped my position of ENF while it was at 29.71 so I can't really justify buying anymore. Also own ENB with a cost basis of about $56.

I think these are good prices for both but I'd expect the prices will stay low for a while as the trend is down.
Newbie
Sep 18, 2016
86 posts
23 upvotes
filled at 47$ and still going down
"Just because it's illogical doesn't mean it can't continue to move up"
Sr. Member
Nov 28, 2010
894 posts
124 upvotes
Brampton
Finished just above $47. Still playing the waiting game to decide if I'll buy more as my average cost is over $55.
Jr. Member
Aug 16, 2015
141 posts
12 upvotes
ENB is such a dog. Time to chop the CEO. POS.

How do they suck so much when IPL is doing so well?

I guess I'll keep averaging down.... Or is ENB about to have its KMI moment.
Deal Expert
User avatar
Sep 19, 2004
20300 posts
3091 upvotes
Waterloo
kilburn305 wrote:
Nov 3rd, 2017 12:15 am
ENB is such a dog. Time to chop the CEO. POS.

How do they suck so much when IPL is doing so well?

I guess I'll keep averaging down.... Or is ENB about to have its KMI moment.
Really no idea on how these pipelines act so different

IPL was $22, then it jumped to $26 and stayed there
TRP is pretty flat I'd say
PPL just missed last night, otherwise it didn't dip low for long ($44 -> $41 -> $43)
KEY is flat
ENB/ENF suck ass, yes @@
Which Credit Cards to sign up? >> Jerry's List of Credit Cards with $200+ Welcome bonus/Aeroplan & AMEX Churning FAQ
AMEX Personal 60K || Business Platinum 75K || Biz Gold 40K || SPG 25K
Member
Feb 26, 2017
301 posts
81 upvotes
jerryhung wrote:
Nov 3rd, 2017 8:03 am
Really no idea on how these pipelines act so different

IPL was $22, then it jumped to $26 and stayed there
TRP is pretty flat I'd say
PPL just missed last night, otherwise it didn't dip low for long ($44 -> $41 -> $43)
KEY is flat
ENB/ENF suck ass, yes @@
IPL also started the year above $29. It was a drop that didn't really make sense as they've been having a good year. At one point it was down 25% and IPL is still down 11% without dividends ytd. ENB is now down 17% but they've missed 3 Q in a row, will have lower FFO per share this year and had their subsidiary downgraded. I think its overdone, but there are reasons why ENB is dropping.
Deal Expert
User avatar
Sep 19, 2004
20300 posts
3091 upvotes
Waterloo
TD report just came out, still BUY on both

ENB lower PT $64 to $62
ENF lower PT $38 to $36


Enbridge Inc.
Q3/17 Below Expectations; Financing Plan Unclear

Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc.
Funding Plans to be Updated at Investor Day
Which Credit Cards to sign up? >> Jerry's List of Credit Cards with $200+ Welcome bonus/Aeroplan & AMEX Churning FAQ
AMEX Personal 60K || Business Platinum 75K || Biz Gold 40K || SPG 25K
Sr. Member
Aug 17, 2008
593 posts
181 upvotes
Are ENF and ENB fairly priced right now, using a credit (fixed income) process and perspective?

1 - I don't have corresponding bond pricing, but I'll apply a similar process to the equity in terms of spread or dividend yield changes.
2 - How do we know what is "fair" without a comparison? TRP will be my standard. You can use your own comp and apply the same process.
3 - ENF = red, ENB = black and TRP = blue on the chart below.

If you think about the relative riskiness of each investment, ENF is the furthest from the cash flow, so it carries the most risk and should be hit the hardest in relative price and spread. ENF risk > ENB risk > TRP risk

4 - Dates COB Oct 19/17, COB Nov 1/17 and today at 11:00am ET

Oct 19 to 11am today;
TRP down $1.35 = 9 basis points (bps)
ENB down $3.44 = 35 bps
ENF down $2.23 = 51 bps

The relative spread or increases in yield looks in line with what we should expect, ENF > ENB > TRP. The only case one could argue for is that ENF should be even wider in spread/yield vs ENB, therefore it's price may still fall. Actually, it's doing that as I write this. Darn, wish I had applied this before I added :(

Chart (also attached): https://invst.ly/5olto
Images
  • ENF vs ENB vs TRP spread analysis 03Nov17.JPG
Jr. Member
Aug 16, 2015
141 posts
12 upvotes
And CVE still cant get it up. lmao. what will it take? 100 dollar oil?

Don't worry, oil will crash in a violent and fiery explosion long before CVE sees 15 dollars.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Dec 21, 2005
4967 posts
308 upvotes
Markham
jerryhung wrote:
Nov 3rd, 2017 4:09 pm
wow indeed
crude +2%
nat gas +2%

You couldn't really tell from TSX Energy, up slightly only, not to mention ENB/ENF :P
The smaller cap oil names are up quite a bit today
BTE +6.8%
GXO +3.7%
CJ +3.5% (finally over $5 again)
SGY +2%

Heck, even ENF bounced over $1 from its day low of of $27.93
:idea: :) :lol: :razz: :D

Top