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is now the time to invest in oil stocks?

  • Last Updated:
  • Aug 8th, 2018 8:03 pm
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Member
Apr 23, 2017
222 posts
127 upvotes
IrwinW wrote:
Nov 19th, 2017 6:35 pm
Electric vehicles will do about as much for the environment as computers did to eliminate the need for paper. Anyone remember how it was said that once all kinds of info and data could be stored on computers, we would become a paperless society? yeh well ....
Hmmm... computers HAVE eliminated a lot of paper.

The problem with EVs is that they're probably no better for the environment. They will be forced through by the government & big corporations and supported by idiots who think CO2 is poison.
Newbie
Jun 28, 2017
84 posts
28 upvotes
zinger9 wrote:
Nov 20th, 2017 10:50 am
Hmmm... computers HAVE eliminated a lot of paper.

The problem with EVs is that they're probably no better for the environment. They will be forced through by the government & big corporations and supported by idiots who think CO2 is poison.
Nobody believes CO2 is poison. Come on now.
As for electric vehicles, they are better for the environment if you live in certain places, like Quebec for example. If you're getting your electricity from coal however, not so much. EVs will need a complete grid transformation before they are at their most useful, but renewable energy is already the fastest growing sector in energy and I don't think that will stop even with the orange is the new white man in the White House.
Deal Addict
Jun 6, 2013
2835 posts
2333 upvotes
I have 150 shares of TSE:VII and plan to hold it long term.

Looks like a decent stock according to analysts.

Last 90 days:
Buy 4
Outperform 54
Hold 9

Today:
Buy 1
Outperform 14
Hold 3
Bitcoin will crash hard.
Sr. Member
Feb 21, 2010
617 posts
133 upvotes
Scarborough
problem with VII is trust. Mgmt has few times in a row over promised and under delivered. Now street expectation is lower end for their 2018 estimates. If company over-delivers the low end of estimates, then stock will be fine. But if estimates are revised to lower again, we will see share price in single digits here

What you are looking at are sell-side ratings. Honestly they have no creditability.

Glancealot wrote:
Nov 20th, 2017 2:39 pm
I have 150 shares of TSE:VII and plan to hold it long term.

Looks like a decent stock according to analysts.

Last 90 days:
Buy 4
Outperform 54
Hold 9

Today:
Buy 1
Outperform 14
Hold 3
Deal Expert
User avatar
Sep 19, 2004
21556 posts
3760 upvotes
Waterloo
Yep, VII burnt me TWICE, last ER (fine, bad ER), but this time good ER made it go to $21, then BAM, lower 2018 guidance -> $16
Although most PT are still $22-$25, way above $17 right now, but no confidence
so next time I'm selling all if breakeven :(

I only feel better because CPPIB bought MILLIONS of VII above $20, so we're all in this dump together
Which Credit Cards to sign up? >> Jerry's List of Credit Cards with $200+ Welcome bonus/Aeroplan & AMEX Churning FAQ
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Sr. Member
Feb 21, 2010
617 posts
133 upvotes
Scarborough
Current estimate is that they will be realizing 2018 production at an average $55/ barrel and they will produce 18% more than 2017 production. They are cash flow negative, so assuming no equity dilution but taking about 300-350 million more debt. They have credit lines set up with the banks. All these assumption provide a valuation of about $20/ share based on peer valuation. Now if the whole sector gets re-valued based on any upside or downside changes to oil prices, you can estimate VII to by any where between 8 and 22

jerryhung wrote:
Nov 20th, 2017 2:49 pm
Yep, VII burnt me TWICE, last ER (fine, bad ER), but this time good ER made it go to $21, then BAM, lower 2018 guidance -> $16
Although most PT are still $22-$25, way above $17 right now, but no confidence
so next time I'm selling all if breakeven :(

I only feel better because CPPIB bought MILLIONS of VII above $20, so we're all in this dump together
Deal Expert
User avatar
Sep 19, 2004
21556 posts
3760 upvotes
Waterloo
Good to see some VII Insider buys

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/TSE/V ... ium=Social
Insider Trades by Quarter for Seven Generations Energy (TSE VII)
Transaction Date Insider Name Title Buy/Sell Number of Shares Average Share Price Total Transaction Details
11/20/2017 Timothy Lauer Stauft Insider Buy 2,000 C$16.84 C$33,680.00
11/20/2017 William Mcadam Director Buy 9,900 C$13.15 C$130,185.00
11/17/2017 Brian John Newmarch Insider Buy 1,000 C$16.90 C$16,900.00
11/17/2017 Marty Leigh Proctor Director Buy 10,000 C$16.59 C$165,900.00

10/10/2017 Canada Pension Plan Investment Insider Buy 860,300 C$20.35 C$17,507,105.00
10/6/2017 Canada Pension Plan Investment Insider Buy 1,049,669 C$20.12 C$21,119,340.28
10/5/2017 Canada Pension Plan Investment Insider Buy 337,000 C$20.30 C$6,841,100.00
10/4/2017 Canada Pension Plan Investment Insider Buy 303,900 C$20.23 C$6,147,897.00
10/3/2017 Canada Pension Plan Investment Insider Buy 744,690 C$20.08 C$14,953,375.20
Which Credit Cards to sign up? >> Jerry's List of Credit Cards with $200+ Welcome bonus/Aeroplan & AMEX Churning FAQ
AMEX Personal 60K || Business Platinum 75K || Biz Gold 40K || SPG 20K
Member
User avatar
Oct 14, 2015
404 posts
99 upvotes
This is from a few years ago, but a good listen nevertheless.
Some proponents of abiotic oil are very abrasive and turn people off, but Jerome Corsi lays out his case in a very calm and reasoned way.

Conversation with Kevin Moore and Dr. Jerome Corsi begins at 2:30 (length 55 minutes).

If readers can't do anything with the content of a topic other than argue about it, it does not belong here.
Member
User avatar
Oct 14, 2015
404 posts
99 upvotes
zinger9 wrote:
Nov 20th, 2017 10:50 am
Hmmm... computers HAVE eliminated a lot of paper.
It's likely a variable world wide; I won't get into an argument about it; also not the point of my post which was about electric vehicles.
https://www.google.ca/search?q=have+com ... e&ie=UTF-8
If readers can't do anything with the content of a topic other than argue about it, it does not belong here.
Jr. Member
Nov 25, 2009
182 posts
43 upvotes
Vancouver
Opec meeting on the 30th, what do you guys think the result would be?
Member
Apr 23, 2017
222 posts
127 upvotes
IrwinW wrote:
Nov 20th, 2017 8:21 pm
It's likely a variable world wide; I won't get into an argument about it; also not the point of my post which was about electric vehicles.
https://www.google.ca/search?q=have+com ... e&ie=UTF-8
Well, we are all in Canada here. Think of all the Federal and Provincial government records that used to be stored on paper but are now stored digitally. Paper is still lingering as the older generations barely know how to use computers, but the younger generations nowadays can get by doing everything digitally.
Deal Addict
Nov 28, 2010
1077 posts
181 upvotes
Brampton
Finally good to see ENB starting to creep back up
Member
Jun 28, 2016
267 posts
139 upvotes
lawonga wrote:
Nov 20th, 2017 11:25 pm
Opec meeting on the 30th, what do you guys think the result would be?
There is a close to a 100% likelihood the "cuts" will continue until March. Just about every member of OPEC has come out in support, and many (including the Saudis and Iran) want an extension for even longer. There is a reasonable possibility that an extension will be announced 3-9 months beyond March, although that is not a sure thing. I suspect that there will be an extension, or at least some sort of negotiated exit plan besides "And then we all start pumping at once in April, as much as we can," but it may not be announced at this meeting. If there is no extension announced, I expect a short-term drop in oil prices, as the market is already pricing in an extension to some extent.

Ultimately, I am fairly dubious about OPEC's capacity to ramp up production. Theoretically, OPEC spare capacity is sitting around 2 million bpd, but that's about it's average spare capacity historically. If we assume that OPEC members were pumping full out in Dec of 2016 (which most analysts assume) then their real spare capacity is around 1 million bpd. That's not nothing, and it could certainly crash oil markets if it all came back online at once in April, but we should keep some perspective. The EIA is currently assuming an OPEC ramp up to about 300,000 bpd less than this estimated full production in 2018, as it expects cheating or the agreement falling apart, or something else like that. The EIA is also forecasting an oil market close to balance next year. At the same time, the EIA expects >1 million bpd of shale growth next year, more than all of OPEC's likely true capacity, so the long-term effect of OPEC's spare capacity coming online at once in April would likely be to just slow this shale growth due to lower oil prices. So, if OPEC extends, we'll likely spend next year in a deep deficit, increasing oil prices. If OPEC does not extend, then we'll likely be close to balance next year in supply and demand. So, while it will cause short-term price action, I don't actually think that this meeting is so important. The longer-term issue is demand, not OPEC.

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