is now the time to invest in oil stocks?
- Last Updated:
- Mar 4th, 2024 9:55 am
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- SCORE+30
- divx
- Deal Expert
- Oct 26, 2003
- 39289 posts
- 6324 upvotes
- Winnipeg
- Blubbs
- Deal Fanatic
- Mar 21, 2013
- 6097 posts
- 10645 upvotes
- Canada
Barely held off buying XOM today at $31.50...
They are expected to announce Canadian and US cuts in the next couple weeks. And I feel like a lot of things at their earnings report could generate a bump. Also they are likely a good long hold at this point.
They are expected to announce Canadian and US cuts in the next couple weeks. And I feel like a lot of things at their earnings report could generate a bump. Also they are likely a good long hold at this point.
- faken
- Deal Guru
- Sep 21, 2007
- 13018 posts
- 11360 upvotes
- ...
I just noticed that the first post of this thread,the op is worried about big names going bankrupt. Look at us now...same situation. Also noticed I posted on the first page... So glad I got rid of Spartan energy lmao
"An essential aspect of creativity is not being afraid to fail." -- Edward Land
- faken
- Deal Guru
- Sep 21, 2007
- 13018 posts
- 11360 upvotes
- ...
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/new-jersey- ... -1.1514531
(Bloomberg) -- PBF Energy Inc.’s Paulsboro refinery in New Jersey became the latest oil processing facility to fall victim to a Covid-driven collapse in fuel demand, announcing plans to idle operations for the foreseeable future.
The company plans to lay off 250 employees at the 160,000-barrel-a-day plant and halt fuel production as a result of low demand, according to a letter to employees seen by Bloomberg.
(Bloomberg) -- PBF Energy Inc.’s Paulsboro refinery in New Jersey became the latest oil processing facility to fall victim to a Covid-driven collapse in fuel demand, announcing plans to idle operations for the foreseeable future.
The company plans to lay off 250 employees at the 160,000-barrel-a-day plant and halt fuel production as a result of low demand, according to a letter to employees seen by Bloomberg.
"An essential aspect of creativity is not being afraid to fail." -- Edward Land
- andalou
- Jr. Member
- Mar 12, 2015
- 103 posts
- 25 upvotes
- North York, ON
I'm holding MEG, CVE, and SU and have been for a while. It's down 30-40 percent. What do you think I should do? I should've sold it when it was higher in August but didn't. And today was brutal.
- faken
- Deal Guru
- Sep 21, 2007
- 13018 posts
- 11360 upvotes
- ...
i told my buddy to sell his MEG when it was above $4.. i thought he sold it all.. he only sold half -_-'.
Who knows.. it may go up after elections.. If you sold, where would you deploy the money then...
I'm holding my HSE position....
"An essential aspect of creativity is not being afraid to fail." -- Edward Land
- DealRNothing
- Deal Addict
- Jul 30, 2012
- 2141 posts
- 3198 upvotes
I think it (is) would be inappropriate for posters to offer you a "what you should do now" answer without knowing your risk tolerance, time horizon, etc. From experience, I can tell you everyone's risk tolerance is "high" until it's tested (like now). For me, none of my entry / add targets have been met yet on O&G plays (I have very specific bid targets based on my own fundamental / technical analysis). October is somewhat early (for me) to enter "tax loss" selling candidates in this sector (even in a normal year due to seasonality). The main driver today was rapid rises in Global Covid cases pushing off the idea of near-term economic recovery for oil (think negatives for planes, trains, & automobiles).
We are likely nearing trough levels but they can be lower than one expects. Of your list, I am reviewing Suncor (but for me entries would be $12+>$13+ range under current conditions). If it gets there fine, if not I'll wait for the next bus.
- agit
- Sr. Member
- Jan 23, 2009
- 945 posts
- 1922 upvotes
- Ontario
I'm holding SU also down 40-50%. Suncor is a integrated oil company trading way less then book Value of $27.44. Warren Buffet owns about 1.3% stake in Suncor about 19.2M share, in fact Suncor is one of the two Canadian stock he owns. Saudi wealth fund builds stakes in Canadian Natural, Suncor - about 2.00% stake in Suncor
https://hedgefollow.com/stocks/SU
https://seekingalpha.com/article/437625 ... days-price
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/saudi-wealt ... -1.1437236
https://www.fool.ca/2020/08/25/suncor-e ... tsx-giant/
- DealRNothing
- Deal Addict
- Jul 30, 2012
- 2141 posts
- 3198 upvotes
Just a caution on Book Value. It is not a very meaningful fundamental metric in the O&G world (when commodity price is falling). Free Cashflow / Price per Flowing Barrel / Debt-to-Cashflow are more relevant. Most companies take NAV (net asset value) write downs at year-end (especially when forward commodity price curves are dropping). Book values have been routinely marked down (over the last 5 years) on assets sold. I haven't looked at the HSE / CVE assets, but I assume the HSE assets will be written down when they show up on CVE Balance Sheet.agit wrote: ↑ I'm holding SU also down 40-50%. Suncor is a integrated oil company trading way less then book Value of $27.44. Warren Buffet owns about 1.3% stake in Suncor about 19.2M share, in fact Suncor is one of the two Canadian stock he owns. Saudi wealth fund builds stakes in Canadian Natural, Suncor - about 2.00% stake in Suncor
Write ups can occur but are unlikely until you see a year ending with a $60+ WTI
- Stryker
- Deal Fanatic
- Jul 23, 2007
- 5113 posts
- 4890 upvotes
The Guardian
Jillian Ambrose Energy correspondent
Thu 29 Oct 2020 08.57 GMT
Shell raises dividends as profits beat expectations
Jillian Ambrose Energy correspondent
Thu 29 Oct 2020 08.57 GMT
Shell raises dividends as profits beat expectations
- jerryhung
- Deal Expert
- Sep 19, 2004
- 26752 posts
- 9315 upvotes
- where I belong
They're dropping oil again, WTI -6%
I think XOM is back to March 2020 low's
I think XOM is back to March 2020 low's
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- FarmerHarv
- Deal Addict
- May 31, 2018
- 1206 posts
- 3033 upvotes
- SK
- Wiretin
- Jr. Member
- Jan 30, 2020
- 149 posts
- 185 upvotes
Shell beat and raised the dividend. It's a good low cost producer.
- agit
- Sr. Member
- Jan 23, 2009
- 945 posts
- 1922 upvotes
- Ontario
With Suncor i believe book value is a important since Suncor own about 50% of the retail Petro Canada (there is about 1600 retail station in Canada), Suncor Cash Flow about 2 Billions.DealRNothing wrote: ↑ Just a caution on Book Value. It is not a very meaningful fundamental metric in the O&G world (when commodity price is falling). Free Cashflow / Price per Flowing Barrel / Debt-to-Cashflow are more relevant. Most companies take NAV (net asset value) write downs at year-end (especially when forward commodity price curves are dropping). Book values have been routinely marked down (over the last 5 years) on assets sold. I haven't looked at the HSE / CVE assets, but I assume the HSE assets will be written down when they show up on CVE Balance Sheet.
Write ups can occur but are unlikely until you see a year ending with a $60+ WTI
- Blubbs
- Deal Fanatic
- Mar 21, 2013
- 6097 posts
- 10645 upvotes
- Canada
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/exx ... demand-hit
I believe this is the "first round". Imperial Oil announcement will be coming in the days to come. Maybe a couple weeks tops.
I believe this is the "first round". Imperial Oil announcement will be coming in the days to come. Maybe a couple weeks tops.
- EddandEddie
- Sr. Member
- Jan 9, 2018
- 536 posts
- 698 upvotes
Hold on to Suncor , just finished reading their Q3 . They have been successful in significantly cutting their cost and moving right on their target , utilization is up again to almost 100% , it was average 87% for 9 months of 2020 as they were doing huge maintenance work , Revenue is up against Q2 2020 .
- Wiretin
- Jr. Member
- Jan 30, 2020
- 149 posts
- 185 upvotes
added more SU and shell. I like shell more if things get worse but i like SU for the rebound potential
- faken
- Deal Guru
- Sep 21, 2007
- 13018 posts
- 11360 upvotes
- ...
Even with those cuts, you think it's a good buy even now? It's past the massive sell off in mid March. No confirmation of an uptrend and elections next week, this could bleed a bit more... I think it's too early to add to any oil position..EddandEddie wrote: ↑ Hold on to Suncor , just finished reading their Q3 . They have been successful in significantly cutting their cost and moving right on their target , utilization is up again to almost 100% , it was average 87% for 9 months of 2020 as they were doing huge maintenance work , Revenue is up against Q2 2020 .
"An essential aspect of creativity is not being afraid to fail." -- Edward Land
- Wiretin
- Jr. Member
- Jan 30, 2020
- 149 posts
- 185 upvotes
I know you weren't asking me, but what difference does the election make? If Biden actually does crack down on fracking SU would be a huge winner. If trump wins nothing changes.
- EddandEddie
- Sr. Member
- Jan 9, 2018
- 536 posts
- 698 upvotes
I see a huge uptick in demand in coming months..I am talking about 12 month period. Vaccine would be out , travel demand would start picking up. If you look at cars sales trend , recently Ford and other car makers had a huge increase in sales . They mostly make cars that use gasoline. I bought Suncor at average $15.50 so I am talking from that price prospective , not for investors who have bought it at high 30's . From $15 a share i see some really nice returns in next couple of years...
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