Investing

is now the time to invest in oil stocks?

  • Last Updated:
  • Jan 20th, 2019 12:27 am
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Member
Aug 16, 2015
321 posts
54 upvotes
onlineharvest wrote:
Dec 10th, 2018 8:38 am
Not necessarily you, but isn’t that a perfect commentary on politics now in the 21st century? When a leader is tasked with LEADING, and making decisions for the betterment of who they are leading, it’s marred with language of “Ford-style” or “Trump-style” or populist, etc.

We’ve created a caricature of leadership, wishy washy never commit always on the sideline, forever neutral, well it depends, kind of leadership. Anyone who has a strong conviction and is willing to pursue it because they genuinely feel its for our good has become the new “a woman who has drive in the workplace is a bitch” mentality. Or Ford style. Or Trump style.

I wonder how today’s mind would handle the leadership of the greats we revere from only decades ago. Trudeau needs to lead and consider the needs of Canadians first and foremost. All oil is dirty. Whether one creates more pollutants or one enriches despot nations who are literally an enemy to modern freedom, it’s all dirty.
yes it would be nice if the pipeline gets built asap on the other hand I like that he doesn't try to run the country like a dictator.

you disagree. that's fine.
Deal Expert
User avatar
Sep 19, 2004
21984 posts
4036 upvotes
Waterloo
too little (1.6B) too late?

Feds to provide $1.6B in support for beleaguered oil patch: Report - BNN Bloomberg
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/feds-to-pro ... -1.1184925

It's insane many names are trading BELOW their 2016 levels when WTI is only $30 USD
now it's $50 USD but we're way worse
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Deal Addict
May 17, 2012
1962 posts
806 upvotes
ontario
BTE @ 1.99... tempted but no .. I am not seeing any light at the end of tunnel
Deal Addict
User avatar
Dec 10, 2008
4024 posts
534 upvotes
Toronto
I have my eye on BTE

Bought a few years ago at $2.80-ish and sold it at $7.00-ish
Deal Addict
Jun 15, 2012
1406 posts
188 upvotes
MB
Federal government will give 1.6 billion taxpayers money for dirty oil industry instead of investment in clean renewable energy.
Thanks
Sir David Attenborough: someone who believes in infinite growth is ‘either a madman or an economist’
Deal Expert
User avatar
Sep 19, 2004
21984 posts
4036 upvotes
Waterloo
RCGA wrote:
Dec 18th, 2018 2:34 pm
I have my eye on BTE

Bought a few years ago at $2.80-ish and sold it at $7.00-ish
Lucky you, who says we shouldn't time the market ....

Bought my last trench at $2, that's crazy drop, like 2X oil ETF
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Newbie
Dec 11, 2010
67 posts
13 upvotes
Edmonton
ukrainiandude wrote:
Dec 18th, 2018 3:19 pm
Federal government will give 1.6 billion taxpayers money for dirty oil industry instead of investment in clean renewable energy.
Thanks
Someone needs to look at the breakdown of the money
Deal Addict
User avatar
Mar 31, 2009
1054 posts
533 upvotes
ukrainiandude wrote:
Dec 18th, 2018 3:19 pm
Federal government will give 1.6 billion taxpayers money for dirty oil industry instead of investment in clean renewable energy.
Thanks
Government should just approve some pipelines and save ourselves 1.6 billion. Would have more of an effect and cost us less..
Deal Guru
Jun 26, 2011
11602 posts
1868 upvotes
Markham
unknownone wrote:
Dec 20th, 2018 9:16 pm
Government should just approve some pipelines and save ourselves 1.6 billion. Would have more of an effect and cost us less..
Sounds like we may have given the Saudis 1.8 billion of free vehicles!
Member
Jun 28, 2016
283 posts
150 upvotes
MrMom wrote:
Dec 20th, 2018 9:56 am
Where's our oil bull @Wavelet ? MIA for many months
Busy with my actual job. But it's Christmas. Smiling Face With Open Mouth

And I was right about oil. It went up just when I thought it would, and it went up very high. And then the WCS/WTI discount blew out to crazy extremes, so the half of the oil names I owned that were Canadian got killed. I did buy CNQ around 33 a couple of days ago, and I'm planning to average down on IPL (at 22 from previous buy) if it drops below 19. I will also pick up Trican if it drops below $1/share. I also bought CWB and Artis yesterday, which are indirect oil/Alberta exposure.

I really underestimated the problems we had with pipelines/rail in Canada, and it did cost me on CPG, BTE and WCP (although I'm still well ahead of the TSX this year, not that that's saying much) but, with these largely resolved now, the valuations in Canadian oil names are kind of absurd. On a related note, TOU is very cheap right now, and has lots of recent insider buying. Obviously, it can get a lot cheaper if a recession comes, but I've been considering it for a few days. May dip my toe in if it falls again today.

More generally, it's hard to understand the last couple of > 5% daily plunges in oil. The price action made sense up until about 2 weeks ago, as the Saudis did their usual boost production ahead of the OPEC meeting thing, while the Iranians got waivers, but the current drop doesn't make any sense unless you think a recession is on the way to kill demand growth. On the supply side, the Saudis are cutting almost 800,000 bpd (from Nov levels) alone in January, the rest of OPEC claims it will cut another 400,000, Russia claims it will take > 200,000 off the market, Libya's oil production has dropped 400,000 bpd due to militant activity, Canada is cutting almost 300,000 for the first half of the year, Venezuela is still dropping, the Iran sanctions are still on, and even shale isn't looking too hot, as companies are all coming out with sharply reduced capex forecasts and production growth forecasts (since they can't borrow more money right now). Beyond that, the physical markets are already tightening, which throws ideas about low demand into question.

Well, obviously, the fact that I started buying again last Thursday tells you what I think about the future direction. When the 2y/10y inverts, I'll probably plan to start getting out in the following few months, but, until then, I'm comfortable slowly increasing my oil exposure again as we fall through the present, low volume silliness.
Deal Addict
Mar 16, 2015
1451 posts
224 upvotes
XEG went up quite a bit before plunging...now I am at loss..what to do?

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