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is now the time to invest in oil stocks?

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  • Mar 4th, 2024 9:55 am
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Deal Addict
Dec 1, 2012
1873 posts
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Lake Simcoe
Take the Monday gains and run.... We're still stuck with Trudie Green panties running the show.
Deal Fanatic
Jul 30, 2003
6625 posts
1248 upvotes
Toronto
jerryhung wrote: Pipelines going down :(
Sold all CNQ and will re-visit

But EV names are +20~30% daily LOL - XPEV, LI, SOLO, NIO, except TSLA in red
May want to edit NIO out - after today lol
GTA Housing: Supply is the only Metrics that Matters ... until its solved.
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Sr. Member
Sep 29, 2007
762 posts
247 upvotes
XPEV sold off huge too actually. Who cares about short seller report - they always take their profits hours after the report is issued.

Anyways back on topic. Line 5 will be shut down in six months. This means 1) No place for Alberta oil to go and 2) Ontario refineries running well below capacity. Huge blow overall and this isn't even mentioned by Canadian websites at this time. CBC Business section doesn't even show this story even though it happened about 24 hours ago. This should be front page news right now

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2 ... itmer.html
Deal Guru
User avatar
Sep 21, 2007
13018 posts
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...
I'm selling out when i get my divs lol.
"An essential aspect of creativity is not being afraid to fail." -- Edward Land
Deal Expert
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Oct 26, 2003
39289 posts
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Winnipeg
faken wrote: I'm selling out when i get my divs lol.
how come? oil is here to stay
Deal Guru
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Sep 21, 2007
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divx wrote: how come? oil is here to stay
honestly, I'd rather put more money into the REIT's..
"An essential aspect of creativity is not being afraid to fail." -- Edward Land
Deal Fanatic
Jul 23, 2007
5113 posts
4890 upvotes
The calendar year has not ended yet, but so far the only disappointment for me in the energy sector has been the earlier dividend cut from IPL. Not entirely surprised since I knew I was taking a risk in continuing to hold after buying a few years ago. I continue to own shares in four other Canadian pipelines, and so far, so good.

The government of China has said recently that they'll be carbon free by 2060. Looking forward that's a heck of a long time yet. Looking back it also seems like a long time since Rachel Carson's book "Silent Spring" was published spurring at least some people to slowly start making changes to improve the earth's environment. DDT anyone?

I guess if it was that easy to make major changes here in North America and around the world to produce clean energy, it would have been done long ago. Still waiting. I've gotten to the age where promises are meaningless to me. Don't just talk about it, show me.
Deal Addict
Oct 21, 2014
1936 posts
2932 upvotes
Burlington, ON
Stryker wrote: The calendar year has not ended yet, but so far the only disappointment for me in the energy sector has been the earlier dividend cut from IPL. Not entirely surprised since I knew I was taking a risk in continuing to hold after buying a few years ago. I continue to own shares in four other Canadian pipelines, and so far, so good.

The government of China has said recently that they'll be carbon free by 2060. Looking forward that's a heck of a long time yet. Looking back it also seems like a long time since Rachel Carson's book "Silent Spring" was published spurring at least some people to slowly start making changes to improve the earth's environment. DDT anyone?

I guess if it was that easy to make major changes here in North America and around the world to produce clean energy, it would have been done long ago. Still waiting. I've gotten to the age where promises are meaningless to me. Don't just talk about it, show me.
China is building hundreds of coal fired plants as we speak. It really surprised me, I have always thought that solar was going to be the way forward, the sun produces more energy than we could ever possibly use.

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Deal Expert
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Oct 26, 2003
39289 posts
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Winnipeg
faken wrote: honestly, I'd rather put more money into the REIT's..
I dunno about REIT at this point.
Member
Jan 31, 2008
492 posts
226 upvotes
Québec
divx wrote: I dunno about REIT at this point.
I am overweight REITs and energy.

Biggest REIT: Smartcentres (largest position), BTB Reit, Chartwell Retirement, American Hotel Income Properties (Covid rebound play), H&R REIT.

Energy: Freehold Royalties, Whitecap Resources, Trican Well Service, Tourmaline, MEG Energy, small position in Vermilion Energy

There is a huge supply shock coming to the energy markets as investment decayed over the past several years.

Ultra low interest rates is very bullish for REITs. Most are still down a bit from Covid, lots of opportunity out there.

Trudeau plans record immigration, all mostly going to heavily populated areas where REITs thrive; meanwhile, Covid vaccine is coming late 2020, early 2021 and it will send the economy into overdrive which is extremely bullish for oil and gas markets. Considering Canada is now good pipeline wise for the next 20 years with Transmountain and Line 3, there are no concerns on that front.

We also have extensive natural gas projects in the making such as the NGTL expansion, LNG Canada, several coal conversions in Alberta and Saskatchewan as well as more takeaway capacity to eastern Canada, all while associated gas production in USA crumbles which is likely to put upwards pressure on Canadian natural gas. Great opportunity to go long for the next few years.
"It is never too late to be what you might have been. "
Member
Jan 31, 2008
492 posts
226 upvotes
Québec
retireat50 wrote: XPEV sold off huge too actually. Who cares about short seller report - they always take their profits hours after the report is issued.

Anyways back on topic. Line 5 will be shut down in six months. This means 1) No place for Alberta oil to go and 2) Ontario refineries running well below capacity. Huge blow overall and this isn't even mentioned by Canadian websites at this time. CBC Business section doesn't even show this story even though it happened about 24 hours ago. This should be front page news right now

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2 ... itmer.html
Line 5 is highly unlikely to be shutdown in 6-months. Her lawsuit requires validation. Whitmer has lost all cases in Michigan and the federal regulator (PHMSA) have always sided with Enbridge and never found any violations to justify what the politically angled Whitmer-Nessel adminstration is claiming. I watched the entire court proceeding months ago in Michigan on Youtube and have been following the case closely for the past several years. Had Whitmer been confident she could revoke the easement agreement from 1953, she would not have waited this long. She used all the tools in her toolbox and lost everytime, in Michigan court!

Either way, as upstream oil producers, we don't need Line 5, the east coast does as do those in upper Michigan as the line supplies 60% of the state's propane.

Enbridge is able to accomodate light crude crude and NGL by rerouting via existing network of pipelines.

Let them freeze if need be and shutdown the Toledo Refinery and hurt others. Western Canada does NOT need Line 5, Michigan and Ontario/Quebec do.

Don't forget, we won the battle on Line 3 and just got our final permits; plus, we also got Transmountain and a presidential permit on existing Keystone pipeline to boost volume.

Now, don't forget the Enbridge optimization which adds 265-300kbpd of oil either or the Southern Lights Reversal. Over 1,000,000 new barrels per day of new capacity.

All in all, Canada's oil takeaway is the best it has ever been and we are well positioned for the next two decades or more.

I can't say the same about Michigan or southern Ontario if they shutdown Line 5. Huge price shock coming for fuel and propane if successful.

Cheers.
"It is never too late to be what you might have been. "
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
10942 posts
13443 upvotes
Back into TRP at $55.17

TC Energy to highlight sustainable long-term growth at virtual Investor Day
https://www.tcenergy.com/siteassets/pdf ... utlook.pdf

Indigenous group to invest up to C$1 billion in TC Energy's Keystone project
NOVEMBER 17, 20208:52 AM
https://reuters.com/article/idCAKBN27X1QY
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
10942 posts
13443 upvotes
CNQ = $28 @jerryhung Grinning Face
Yeah, I think I read you are out. I'm holding out for a 30 handle.
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
Deal Addict
Dec 1, 2012
1873 posts
1664 upvotes
Lake Simcoe
How did they power that Space-x rocket ship the other day? Was it Solar panels and cow dung??? Face With Tears Of Joy

Don't be too quick to sell cdn energy now....
Deal Fanatic
Mar 21, 2013
6097 posts
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Canada
Bah, feels like I missed the boat on SU!

Maybe I will go into XOM on the next dip.
Member
Sep 23, 2016
284 posts
143 upvotes
Looks like I missed the boat on VET, eyeing MEG, anyone is thinking to pull the trigger on MEG? WCS is like 32bucks right now so differential to WTI is like 9-10 bucks. I am still holding HSE and CPG strong lol.
Deal Fanatic
Apr 25, 2006
8439 posts
3608 upvotes
vince201 wrote: Looks like I missed the boat on VET, eyeing MEG, anyone is thinking to pull the trigger on MEG? WCS is like 32bucks right now so differential to WTI is like 9-10 bucks. I am still holding HSE and CPG strong lol.
VET is only 4 bucks lol, how is this boat missed?
"If you make a mistake but then change your ways, it is like never having made a mistake at all" - Confucius
Deal Guru
User avatar
Sep 21, 2007
13018 posts
11360 upvotes
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Oils not going anywhere for at least 5 yrs.

Buying 300 Meg
"An essential aspect of creativity is not being afraid to fail." -- Edward Land
Deal Addict
Dec 1, 2012
1873 posts
1664 upvotes
Lake Simcoe
Reopening trade will be closed tomorrow...... NY city schools being closed. More to come.....

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