Up until Nov 26, HH was actually % wise outperforming TTF on the year. My point as yours is about pricing "sympathy". Of course, geopolitical events are usually "transitory" but prior to "the" event one never knows the magnitude of price change or duration. LNG consortium partners would likely benefit and would have a window to lock in hedges.MrMom wrote: ↑ I don't think @craftsman's criticism on the geographical pricing divide is entirely accurate. For a short period, when the UK and Europe feared a large NG shortfall, HH NG prices moved in sympathy to the European demand. I'm pretty sure if Russian boots step into the Ukraine, the front Henry Hub based contract is going higher. Mkts don't have to be logical. Maybe NA producers don't get a long term "benefit" from that, but I'm sure most of us regular participants in here are aware of that.
I think longer term investors here actually "bank" on irrational behaviours to capitalize on market inefficiency. The European Oil conversion discussions are occurring in anticipation of TTF remaining high. I expect US is planning on benefiting from an Oil export arrangement. Of course, Canada, because of (lack of) political will, won't be an active participant.
Last edited by DealRNothing on Dec 9th, 2021 12:55 am, edited 1 time in total.