Best guard passer in the sport? LOL. I think GSP is awesome but is such a far stretch to say he is the best guard passer in the sport. He did not even pass the half guard of Condit when he had Condit fully flattened out in half and had cross face control (which is the absolute most dominate position you can have in half guard). He had it so many times and did not pass it (or did he once out of how many times?), and it is not like Condit has even close to top level guard. He was able to beat up Penn and started passing once he had him beat up and tired, impressive but other than that display, what other one could you give that makes the argument he is the best guard passer in the sport. What I think he has is an awesome ability to keep a guy on the mat, an ability to put damage down while in closed guard while avoiding submissions, and nice control. If he was so great at passing he would not spend so much time in closed guard or half guard. If he is getting past and put back in the guard, it is pointless to really pass in the first place then - sure the passing is great, but the control must be lacking and passing is pretty useless if you can not control past it. a-la the fight we just saw on the weekend.Mintmaster wrote: ↑ Did you forget the first round of Sonnen-Silva II? Chael mounted Silva, and who else has he mounted? Maybe Stann? Chael isn't some BJJ whiz; meanwhile, GSP is the best guard passer in the sport.
The usual argument for Silva creaming Silva goes like this: Each round starts on the feet, so Silva will eventually KO GSP with his superior striking.
Here's what the evidence shows: In seven rounds against Chael, Silva was taken down six times. Not once did Silva drop him during the takedown attempt.
One win came from Chael leaning back on his @ss, swinging wildly, and letting Silva grab his wrist. Complete BJJ foolishness that's impossible for GSP to do. The other win came from Chael throwing the most hilarious spinning backfist in MMA history, landing on his a$s, and finally sitting there like Brock instead of pulling guard or getting up. After the first fight, I thought Silva was just unprepared, or that the injury excuse was real. Then the second fight came, and started exactly the same way, and Silva was dominated even more in that round than before. It's a repeatable flaw.
GSP is faster than Chael, smarter, and disguises his takedowns better with transitions. Is he as strong? No, but he's strong enough. Add to that WAY better striking offense and especially defense, and none of the single-digit fight-IQ of Chael, and you have a guy with a solid chance to win.
Would I bet on GSP with even odds? No. But at +200? Hell yes.
My argument isn't that it starts on the feet an it means that Silva will KO GSP because of that. My argument is that GSP sets up takedown's much better but differently than traditional wrestlers like Sonnen and Henderson. While I think it makes him more successful at them it leaves more openings. Like you said, he disguises takedowns better than Sonnen with transitions, what are those transitions? They are usually strikes to a takedown (which he does beautifully). I keep hearing this notion that because Chael took down Anderson over and over that GSP will simply do the exact same. Maybe he will, but we will have to see, they preform takedowns a lot differently and will the style that GSP uses be effective against Anderson? Will he try to just mimic Chael?
It doesn't matter to me that Silva did not drop Chael on takedown attempts because Chael does not set them up the same way, and frankly, I believe that Sonnen is harder to knock down than GSP is (once he gets hit). If GSP tries to set up his takedowns with strikes and a combo, I think he is more likely to get put down than Chael was by simply shooting from far out and grinding out the takedown. I think GSP needs the takedown a lot more desperately than Sonnen did, not because GSP does not have better striking than Sonnen but because GSP has not shown that he has some large ability to take punishment from heavy hitters and Sonnen has on the feet shown that he can really take heavy shots.
I agree, GSP has a shot at taking him down and laying punishment down in closed guard, I just think he is more likely to get knocked out or down on the feet than Sonnen was and that is more likely to happen on the feet because of his style of takedowns. Maybe he will have a different strategy for his takedowns. GSP has better striking offense than Sonnen, but I am guessing he is less likely to even want to use it. His ability to not get hit is better than Sonnen's, what about the ability to take a heavy shot?
I am not saying it is impossible, I think the chances are not great based on a style match up. I don't know what percentage or number I would put to it, doesn't really matter. At the end of the day, we both agree that chances are he is not winning