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Official Weather Thread: Historical warming and melting taking place in the Arctic

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  • Feb 27th, 2020 9:48 am
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May 31, 2006
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Burlington
Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: Great because I wasnt refering to 20's anyways.
20's what? Oh... 20s! ;)

Seriously, tho'... you were writing about next week's forecast: 25, 22, 18, 17, 18, 19, 21.

So... upper teens and 20s. :)

Ilovejaneandfinch wrote:
Now let's wait and see how cold it gets behind that cold front. Ahem "cold front" Not "cool front" or "mild front" or "chilly front" lol
I agree: "cold front" is the correct meteorological term, even if it's one the only drops temps from the high 30s to the low 30s! :twisted:
[OP]
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abercombie and finch
CenturyBreak wrote: 20's what? Oh... 20s! ;)

Seriously, tho'... you were writing about next week's forecast: 25, 22, 18, 17, 18, 19, 21.

So... upper teens and 20s. :)




I agree: "cold front" is the correct meteorological term, even if it's one the only drops temps from the high 30s to the low 30s! :twisted:
I was actually talking speculatively about the GFS hence the word "if"
Whether this cold spell comes fully to fruition or not has yet to be seen.

If the current trend holds(chronic below normal temps in the east), expect lake effect snow to start in October.

EDIT: The cold spell will still come, but only god knows how strong it will be. GFS has an even stronger cold snap later in the month.

EDIT: New GFS just out. Really looks just as cold as before.
blahhh
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May 31, 2006
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Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: I was actually talking speculatively about the GFS hence the word "if"
Whether this cold spell comes fully to fruition or not has yet to be seen.

If the current trend holds(chronic below normal temps in the east), expect lake effect snow to start in October.

EDIT: The cold spell will still come, but only god knows how strong it will be. GFS has an even stronger cold snap later in the month.

EDIT: New GFS just out. Really looks just as cold as before.
GFS? Which long-range model? I'd like to see it... not questioning your interpretation: I'm genuinely interested! :D

To get lake effect snow (well north of here) we'd still need steady sub-zero temp winds across Lake Huron and/or Georgian Bay, and sub-zero ground temps for accumulation... in October? I admit it'd be damned cool to experience... but I'm not holding my breath... ;)
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abercombie and finch
CenturyBreak wrote: GFS? Which long-range model? I'd like to see it... not questioning your interpretation: I'm genuinely interested! :D

To get lake effect snow (well north of here) we'd still need steady sub-zero temp winds across Lake Huron and/or Georgian Bay, and sub-zero ground temps for accumulation... in October? I admit it'd be damned cool to experience... but I'm not holding my breath... ;)
I am hesitant to give away my weather stuff. But here we go lol
http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/model_loops/1 ... er_pcp.php

When you become a famous weatherman, don't forget me.
Enjoy your GFS!
blahhh
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abercombie and finch
btw, this thing about lake effect snow in October, like the rest of winter, not necessarily here, but where lake effect normal goes like Buffalo, Fort Erie and other areas, that is where you will find it. Just google and you will see just how heavy this can get in October!

These October events were exactly a decade apart:
http://www.newyorkupstate.com/weather/2 ... sible.html
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... BOmOSDwzGg

If it happens again this year, we will buck the trend with it 2 years in a row!
blahhh
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May 31, 2006
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Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: I am hesitant to give away my weather stuff. But here we go lol
http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/model_loops/1 ... er_pcp.php

When you become a famous weatherman, don't forget me.
Enjoy your GFS!
Cool! Well, maybe... ;)

16 days out is a good timeframe... but how are you translating the precip forecast to temperature?

Famous weatherman? Nah... I'll stick with being an infamous accountant! Winking Face Smiling Face With Sunglasses
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abercombie and finch
CenturyBreak wrote: Cool! Well, maybe... ;)

16 days out is a good timeframe... but how are you translating the precip forecast to temperature?

Famous weatherman? Nah... I'll stick with being an infamous accountant! Winking Face Smiling Face With Sunglasses
Determining general hot or cold trends is very easy once you get used to weather data. I know what a cold front looks like on this more 'raw' info. And high pressure systems and low pressure systems appear at certain strengths, located in certain locations and moving in certain directions, I can observe if it is cold. When the lines are tight around the low pressure system located east of you and a high pressure system is moving toward you from the arctic, I know it is a cold pattern.
Stuff like that.

For temperature I don't look at precip much. Those lines and high/low pressure indicate most of it.
blahhh
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Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: Determining general hot or cold trends is very easy once you get used to weather data. I know what a cold front looks like on this more 'raw' info. And high pressure systems and low pressure systems appear at certain strengths, located in certain locations and moving in certain directions, I can observe if it is cold. When the lines are tight around the low pressure system located east of you and a high pressure system is moving toward you from the arctic, I know it is a cold pattern.
Stuff like that.

For temperature I don't look at precip much. Those lines and high/low pressure indicate most of it.
Thanks.

I can see approaching cold/warm fronts, both from the precip colours and the density of isobars on the map, but I don't get the connection between that and prolonged cooler or warmer trends... as opposed to temporary (hours/days) cooling or warming.

I guess that's the art portion of the process, as opposed to my very basic understanding of the science... ;)
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abercombie and finch
CenturyBreak wrote: Thanks.

I can see approaching cold/warm fronts, both from the precip colours and the density of isobars on the map, but I don't get the connection between that and prolonged cooler or warmer trends... as opposed to temporary (hours/days) cooling or warming.

I guess that's the art portion of the process, as opposed to my very basic understanding of the science... ;)
That's why I said you have to get used to weather data. It happened with me over the years up until the weather thread became a long thread. It won't happen in 15 minutes lol

Of course a long period of cold would mean we are seeing ideal conditions for cold show up in many frames out of the total 52 frames in this GFS.
blahhh
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Apr 8, 2007
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If we have a houston type of situation here in the gta, will we get the same level of flooding?
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abercombie and finch
bluetea wrote: If we have a houston type of situation here in the gta, will we get the same level of flooding?
No. The GTA does not have many low lying areas and it is hilly in much of it. Water can't go uphill so nothing will happen. Just floods in Union station and stuff.
blahhh
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Feb 7, 2017
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bluetea wrote: If we have a houston type of situation here in the gta, will we get the same level of flooding?
Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: No. The GTA does not have many low lying areas and it is hilly in much of it. Water can't go uphill so nothing will happen. Just floods in Union station and stuff.
First, this is a Hurricane, coming ashore straight off the ocean... So when Central North America sees any fall out from a Hurricane it is long after its made landfall (so lost a lt of its energy, as well as rain)

Second, as noted... This happened basically AT SEA LEVEL... So low lying wet / marshy lands to begin with (does not take a whole lot to get them to flood)

On the other hand we are talking somewhere in the range of 40 to 50 INCHES (and counting) in a 3 to 4 day period

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2017 ... story.html

For comparison, a typical month in Ontario is around 40 CENTIMETRES rainfall ... Or about 15.75 nches over 30 Days

With just that shear volume, it would not matter a whole hill of beans whether the land was flat or rugged
(witness the severe flooding & destruction that Hurricane Irene brought to Vermont in 2011 ... They are still rebuilding roads & bridges)

In fact, all that pavement in Toronto, would act similarly to the Granite in Vermont... Massive run off (no ground for the water absorb into)
One giant funnel for the water to gush along ... Flooding out Rivers, Creeks & low lying areas

So even a smaller quantity of rain, but in a short time span could wreck havoc

History shows a bit what this could look like:

The affects of Hurricane Hazel of 1954 washed away a chunk of Toronto Lakeshore & Surrounding Area, accounting for 35 fatalities of the 81 that this Super Hurricane brought to Canada in October of that year (rainfall was about 1 inch per hour, for several hours)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects ... _in_Canada
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Oct 9, 2012
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Image

Hurricane Irma: GFS Simulation shows a Force 9 extra-tropical storm heading over the Great Lakes.
Although it is worth noting the GFS is usually inaccurate this far out.


OP, any input?
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abercombie and finch
therollin wrote: Image

Hurricane Irma: GFS Simulation shows a Force 9 extra-tropical storm heading over the Great Lakes.
Although it is worth noting the GFS is usually inaccurate this far out.

OP, any input?

GFS is not exactly inaccurate. It has been predicting stuff quite well. ECMWF model only beats it by a hair. Keep in mind that the 12z (mid day) and 00z (mid night) runs are the most accurate. Remember that. The other 2 GFS runs for the day are CRAP.
That's why the other model does not even release those times.

12 and 00 z GFS are accurate enough when compared to what other models we have.

What I see is a very 'watered down' version of the storm by the time it reaches us. Nothing impressive at all.

To get an idea of how much weaker just look at it.
This is how tight and strong it is when still down there:
Image
And this is how it looks when it is enters Ontario:
Image

A lot weaker for us.
blahhh
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I have a week of vacation I have to use up in the next few months, Any predictions on which week will have the least amount of rain?

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