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Official Weather Thread: Historical warming and melting taking place in the Arctic

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[OP]
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Nov 7, 2012
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abercombie and finch
makaveli191 wrote: So whats the consensus on how much snow the GTA will get? Environment Canada is calling for 5-10cm.
Models are still all over the place which is unusual for being so close to the event, but based on the GFS model, I am seeing around 20 cm of snow for Toronto. It still is not certain, but that is now looking very likely.

Brampton looks to get the most compared to the rest of the GTA. PH and the Sauga could also get a bit more than T-dot.
blahhh
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abercombie and finch
Junk Food Junkie wrote: Predictions for around the Belleville area?
:)
Belleville looks to get a bit less than Toronto and I can see it mixing with some rain too and maybe a bit of freezing rain. So you will get less than Toronto as far as it looks from the latest model data. Winds will be strong on Monday there. Your city is one place I expect very high winds after the storm leaves. I am still watching for possible adjustments in snowfall amounts.
blahhh
[OP]
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abercombie and finch
Gabriella wrote: I'm seeing that Environment Canada has downgraded the snow fall to just a few centimetres and a bit of freezing rain for Mississauga. http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-24_metric_e.html
I hope that the worst I feared does not end up coming true. The rain zone was supposed to be quite far from the GTA. This storm really is starting to appear messed up. the models are normally in agreement in the last 2 and a half days before an event. Now, things are still all over the place. But I think they based their forecast off the GEM model. I will wait to see what happens later as NOAA still shows us staying in the snow zone. So does Accuweather as well as the GFS model.

Also, I believe that the EURO model also keeps us in the snow the whole time. Clearly EC was using the GEM model for that.
blahhh
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Nov 28, 2008
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Woohoo! a high of plus 3 on Monday for Montreal don't mind the rain, bring it on!
[OP]
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abercombie and finch
mtl514 wrote: Woohoo! a high of plus 3 on Monday for Montreal don't mind the rain, bring it on!
Yes, and when I responded earlier to your question about Mtl, I told you how you would get rain, not a snowstorm, so all looks good for you this time. There's the risk that the snow lasts longer than EC shows, but it should not be that bad as the bulk of the storm will miss you. Due to the rain, I think you should lose more snow than you gain by the storm.
blahhh
[OP]
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Nov 7, 2012
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abercombie and finch
I just found out that one reason this storm could be potentially severe is that it is combining with the polar vortex, a weather feature that is normally supposed to be way up in the Arctic. But this time, the polar vortex is combining with this low pressure system to form a powerful storm with extreme cold surging in behind it. This is what will cause bitter wind chills, very high winds, and therefor, reduced visibilities in the blowing snow. When the storm merges with the polar vortex, it will for an Arctic version of a hurricane or an Arctic cyclone which is why it will be windy for quite a while after the storm leaves. The following article discusses the sever cold that is coming down from northern Canada, and cutting all the way down into the US. This storm could "freeze over the great lakes" that's how cold and serious this is.

Here is the article that goes with all this:
'Polar vortex' set to bring dangerous, record-breaking cold to much of US
'Polar vortex' set to bring dangerous, record-breaking cold to much of US

As much of the country digs out from a powerful winter storm that buried parts of the Northeast, tundra-like temperatures are poised to deliver a rare and potentially dangerous blow to the Midwest, with forecasters predicting a near-record or historic cold outbreak.

The "polar vortex," as one meteorologist calls it, is expected to send cold air piled up at the North Pole down to the U.S., funneling it as far south as the Gulf Coast and driving temperatures below freezing for most of the nation.

Forecasters expect a weekend warm-up in some areas before temperatures plunge again, sending wind chill temperatures in areas in North Dakota and Minnesota to minus 50 degrees by Saturday night.

Those states are notorious for their cold winters, but states in the Mid-Atlantic and New England can also expect wind chill temperatures as low as minus 20 degrees.

FOX NEWS WEATHER CENTER

Cities and states are already taking precautions. Minnesota called off school for Monday statewide, the first such closing in 17 years, because of projected highs in the minus teens and lows as cold as 30 below. Milwaukee and Madison, Wis., students also won't be in class Monday. North Dakota Gov. Jack Dalrymple urged superintendents to keep children's safety in making the decision after the state forecast called for "life threatening wind chills" through Tuesday morning.

Ken Simosko, a meteorologist from Bismarck, said it would take all of five minutes to get frostbite in minus 50 degree condition.

"We usually don't call something 'life threatening,'" he told FoxNews.com. "But yes, we want people to know that this is very much a life-threatening event."

Simosko urged people in the region to stay indoors when the temperature sinks. He said it is a rare event to see ground temperatures around the minus 25 degree mark combined wind gusts up to 30 miles an hour.

Besides the cold air, meteorologists are also eyeing another snowstorm that might form over the Midwest this weekend and potentially dump 6 to 12 inches of snow. The storm is expected to turn to rain as it makes its way east.

At least 16 deaths were blamed on the storm as it swept across the nation's eastern half on Friday, including three people who officials said died at least partly because of the extreme cold.

Meanwhile, some cities saw record lows on Friday. In Wisconsin, a record low temperature was set in Green Bay, where the mercury dipped to minus 18. The National Weather Service said that topped the 17-below-zero mark last recorded in 1979.

Sunday's playoff game in Green Bay could be among one of the coldest NFL games ever played. Temperatures at Lambeau Field are expected to be a frigid minus 2 degrees when the Packers and San Francisco 49ers kick off, and by the fourth quarter it'll be a bone-chilling minus 7, with wind chills approaching minus 30, according to the National Weather Service. Officials are warning fans to take extra safety measures to stay warm including dressing in layers and sipping warm drinks.

Warming centers opened around the region, homeless shelters saw larger crowds and cities took special measures to look after those most vulnerable to the cold. Outreach teams were searching New York City streets for homeless people at risk of freezing to death.

And though this cold spell will last just a few days as warmer air comes behind, it likely will freeze over the Great Lakes and other bodies of water, meaning frigid temperatures will likely last the rest of winter, said Ryan Maue, a meteorologist for Weather Bell.

"It raises the chances for future cold," he said, adding it could include next month's Super Bowl in New York.

Fox News' Edmund DeMarche and the Associated Press contributed to this report.

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blahhh
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Dec 24, 2008
5575 posts
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GT-EH
I am debating if I should get one of these as it is becoming really cold lately and I could feel the frostbite on my ears already. I recommend people to dress up warmly.

[IMG]http://oi43.tinypic.com/r1khux.jpg[/IMG]

I have already seen a few people with these lately:

[IMG]http://oi42.tinypic.com/104qjk2.jpg[/IMG]

EDIT:

What a perfect gift for a LG, lol:

[IMG]http://oi44.tinypic.com/dnhsfp.jpg[/IMG]
[OP]
Deal Guru
Nov 7, 2012
11585 posts
146 upvotes
abercombie and finch
^
you'll be seeing more of that because the cold spell coming is supposed to be severe and I just checked long range projections and the the warm spell coming is not supposed to last. It looks like we will be moving right back into the weather patter we are in now. So dress up warmly and buy those things pictured above!

Hey by the way, I have noticed an unusually large amount of Canada Goose on the subway also. The weather really is setting a new trend in T-dot!
blahhh
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Mar 9, 2007
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Think of the Childre…
Canada Goose ftw!

WOULD SOMEBODY THINK OF THE CHILDREN!!!
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Apr 30, 2003
24045 posts
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Toronto
Ilovejaneandfinch wrote: ^
you'll be seeing more of that because the cold spell coming is supposed to be severe and I just checked long range projections and the the warm spell coming is not supposed to last. It looks like we will be moving right back into the weather patter we are in now. So dress up warmly and buy those things pictured above!

Hey by the way, I have noticed an unusually large amount of Canada Goose on the subway also. The weather really is setting a new trend in T-dot!
really? I thought it's getting warmer a bit now and we don't need to dress so warmly? cold spell will last maybe 2-3 days (and only half the cold as it was yesterday) then it gets warm again.

also I personally wouldn't get a hat with a bigass CG logo on it, so I like Nobis one more.
[OP]
Deal Guru
Nov 7, 2012
11585 posts
146 upvotes
abercombie and finch
Fantaz wrote: really? I thought it's getting warmer a bit now and we don't need to dress so warmly? cold spell will last maybe 2-3 days then it gets warm again.

also I personally wouldn't get a hat with a bigass CG logo on it, so I like Nobis one more.
We are entering a warming trend after this cold wave, a warming trend that will start Jan 9. But now it looks like it won't make it to lasting 2 weeks before it ends again and we are back to the weather pattern we are in right now.

And yes, I also don't feel like having Canada Goose because I already see enough people walking around with this big logo on them!
[IMG]http://eurolau.files.wordpress.com/2010 ... _6_000.jpg[/IMG]
blahhh
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Apr 22, 2005
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I've been watching this storm ... Sounds like rain may ruin the party reducing our totals to 7 - 10 cm??
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Apr 22, 2005
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Premium wrote: I am debating if I should get one of these as it is becoming really cold lately and I could feel the frostbite on my ears already. I recommend people to dress up warmly.

[IMG]http://oi43.tinypic.com/r1khux.jpg[/IMG]


I have already seen a few people with these lately:

[IMG]http://oi42.tinypic.com/104qjk2.jpg[/IMG]
I have one of those ... They are excellent. I also wear a beanie like tuque underneath it if the temperature goes under -20 with windchill.

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