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Official Weather Thread: Rest of September now looking BLAZING HOT in the TDOT!

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  • Sep 22nd, 2017 11:14 am
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Ilovejaneandfinch wrote:
Aug 28th, 2017 2:17 pm
Determining general hot or cold trends is very easy once you get used to weather data. I know what a cold front looks like on this more 'raw' info. And high pressure systems and low pressure systems appear at certain strengths, located in certain locations and moving in certain directions, I can observe if it is cold. When the lines are tight around the low pressure system located east of you and a high pressure system is moving toward you from the arctic, I know it is a cold pattern.
Stuff like that.

For temperature I don't look at precip much. Those lines and high/low pressure indicate most of it.
Thanks.

I can see approaching cold/warm fronts, both from the precip colours and the density of isobars on the map, but I don't get the connection between that and prolonged cooler or warmer trends... as opposed to temporary (hours/days) cooling or warming.

I guess that's the art portion of the process, as opposed to my very basic understanding of the science... ;)
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scarobough
CenturyBreak wrote:
Aug 28th, 2017 4:14 pm
Thanks.

I can see approaching cold/warm fronts, both from the precip colours and the density of isobars on the map, but I don't get the connection between that and prolonged cooler or warmer trends... as opposed to temporary (hours/days) cooling or warming.

I guess that's the art portion of the process, as opposed to my very basic understanding of the science... ;)
That's why I said you have to get used to weather data. It happened with me over the years up until the weather thread became a long thread. It won't happen in 15 minutes lol

Of course a long period of cold would mean we are seeing ideal conditions for cold show up in many frames out of the total 52 frames in this GFS.
Ok so kitchen is full of spideyz.
Spiders are like, ew.
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Apr 8, 2007
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If we have a houston type of situation here in the gta, will we get the same level of flooding?
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scarobough
bluetea wrote:
Aug 31st, 2017 11:07 am
If we have a houston type of situation here in the gta, will we get the same level of flooding?
No. The GTA does not have many low lying areas and it is hilly in much of it. Water can't go uphill so nothing will happen. Just floods in Union station and stuff.
Ok so kitchen is full of spideyz.
Spiders are like, ew.
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Feb 7, 2017
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bluetea wrote:
Aug 31st, 2017 11:07 am
If we have a houston type of situation here in the gta, will we get the same level of flooding?
Ilovejaneandfinch wrote:
Aug 31st, 2017 2:37 pm
No. The GTA does not have many low lying areas and it is hilly in much of it. Water can't go uphill so nothing will happen. Just floods in Union station and stuff.
First, this is a Hurricane, coming ashore straight off the ocean... So when Central North America sees any fall out from a Hurricane it is long after its made landfall (so lost a lt of its energy, as well as rain)

Second, as noted... This happened basically AT SEA LEVEL... So low lying wet / marshy lands to begin with (does not take a whole lot to get them to flood)

On the other hand we are talking somewhere in the range of 40 to 50 INCHES (and counting) in a 3 to 4 day period

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2017 ... story.html

For comparison, a typical month in Ontario is around 40 CENTIMETRES rainfall ... Or about 15.75 nches over 30 Days

With just that shear volume, it would not matter a whole hill of beans whether the land was flat or rugged
(witness the severe flooding & destruction that Hurricane Irene brought to Vermont in 2011 ... They are still rebuilding roads & bridges)

In fact, all that pavement in Toronto, would act similarly to the Granite in Vermont... Massive run off (no ground for the water absorb into)
One giant funnel for the water to gush along ... Flooding out Rivers, Creeks & low lying areas

So even a smaller quantity of rain, but in a short time span could wreck havoc

History shows a bit what this could look like:

The affects of Hurricane Hazel of 1954 washed away a chunk of Toronto Lakeshore & Surrounding Area, accounting for 35 fatalities of the 81 that this Super Hurricane brought to Canada in October of that year (rainfall was about 1 inch per hour, for several hours)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects ... _in_Canada
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Image

Hurricane Irma: GFS Simulation shows a Force 9 extra-tropical storm heading over the Great Lakes.
Although it is worth noting the GFS is usually inaccurate this far out.


OP, any input?
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scarobough
therollin wrote:
Sep 2nd, 2017 7:22 pm
Image

Hurricane Irma: GFS Simulation shows a Force 9 extra-tropical storm heading over the Great Lakes.
Although it is worth noting the GFS is usually inaccurate this far out.

OP, any input?

GFS is not exactly inaccurate. It has been predicting stuff quite well. ECMWF model only beats it by a hair. Keep in mind that the 12z (mid day) and 00z (mid night) runs are the most accurate. Remember that. The other 2 GFS runs for the day are CRAP.
That's why the other model does not even release those times.

12 and 00 z GFS are accurate enough when compared to what other models we have.

What I see is a very 'watered down' version of the storm by the time it reaches us. Nothing impressive at all.

To get an idea of how much weaker just look at it.
This is how tight and strong it is when still down there:
Image
And this is how it looks when it is enters Ontario:
Image

A lot weaker for us.
Ok so kitchen is full of spideyz.
Spiders are like, ew.
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I have a week of vacation I have to use up in the next few months, Any predictions on which week will have the least amount of rain?
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Evil Baby wrote:
Sep 6th, 2017 11:08 am
I have a week of vacation I have to use up in the next few months, Any predictions on which week will have the least amount of rain?
December 24 - 30. If the past is any indication, there may not be a white Christmas.
A life spent making mistakes is not only more memorable, but more useful than a life spent doing nothing.
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scarobough
How about asking about snow. This is Canada lol
Precip is hard to predict.
I can only say that September is now looking average with an overall lack of significant cold and not on the cold side as it was looking before.
Ok so kitchen is full of spideyz.
Spiders are like, ew.
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Aug 17, 2008
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Sask.
29 today and tomorrow, then 31 and 30 degree days into the weekend
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Ilovejaneandfinch wrote:
Sep 6th, 2017 1:25 pm
How about asking about snow. This is Canada lol
Precip is hard to predict.
I can only say that September is now looking average with an overall lack of significant cold and not on the cold side as it was looking before.
Then ya gotta change that thread title again, son! :D

After tomorrow, it's back to warm - 20s every day; normal to above normal temps - for the next two weeks! So: warm, not "quite chilly"! Smiling Face With Open Mouth
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scarobough
CenturyBreak wrote:
Sep 7th, 2017 10:22 am
Then ya gotta change that thread title again, son! :D

After tomorrow, it's back to warm - 20s every day; normal to above normal temps - for the next two weeks! So: warm, not "quite chilly"! Smiling Face With Open Mouth
There done.
Lol
Nice to see we are now done with that cold regime.
Ok so kitchen is full of spideyz.
Spiders are like, ew.
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Aug 17, 2008
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Sask.
So, so very glad the heat wave is over - just in the 20s now. Yay!

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