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ONT ONLY - microFIT solar panel program: 10-14% return for 20 yrs * FAT LADY HAS SUNG

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Newbie
Jan 19, 2016
1 posts
Hamilton, ON
Hi All: Just found this informative thread. I am approved for a 10KW microfit and the application was completed by a local installer who has now given me a quote that seems a bit higher than what I am seeing in posts here. In summary, I am quoted a bit over $35,000 for 40 heliene 250 watt positive tolerance panels, 2 Power One 5 KW inverters on a Galaxy roof mounting extrusion system. This is being installed on a south facing one story barn. All costs/fees are included except HST which we will recoup. Engineering has been approved and paid. It's not out a lot, and perhaps these panels are better than others making the cost higher? Any opinions greatly appreciated. I realize that the contractor's help and time so far is certainly worth something in all this. Thanks!
Deal Guru
User avatar
Nov 18, 2005
11955 posts
3699 upvotes
Kingston
johnbeumer wrote: Hi All: Just found this informative thread. I am approved for a 10KW microfit and the application was completed by a local installer who has now given me a quote that seems a bit higher than what I am seeing in posts here. In summary, I am quoted a bit over $35,000 for 40 heliene 250 watt positive tolerance panels, 2 Power One 5 KW inverters on a Galaxy roof mounting extrusion system. This is being installed on a south facing one story barn. All costs/fees are included except HST which we will recoup. Engineering has been approved and paid. It's not out a lot, and perhaps these panels are better than others making the cost higher? Any opinions greatly appreciated. I realize that the contractor's help and time so far is certainly worth something in all this. Thanks!
If you haven't previously committed to that installer, get some more quotes. Then if you get a better quote you can ask him to match another quote (assuming you would like to go with him and show him "preference")
Newbie
Jan 16, 2014
68 posts
25 upvotes
Toronto
johnbeumer wrote: Hi All: Just found this informative thread. I am approved for a 10KW microfit and the application was completed by a local installer who has now given me a quote that seems a bit higher than what I am seeing in posts here. In summary, I am quoted a bit over $35,000 for 40 heliene 250 watt positive tolerance panels, 2 Power One 5 KW inverters on a Galaxy roof mounting extrusion system. This is being installed on a south facing one story barn. All costs/fees are included except HST which we will recoup. Engineering has been approved and paid. It's not out a lot, and perhaps these panels are better than others making the cost higher? Any opinions greatly appreciated. I realize that the contractor's help and time so far is certainly worth something in all this. Thanks!
If you want please send me your roof layout that they made for you or alternatively a google image of your roof with indication of direction or compass on it. I will be so happy to help you with that.
Toronto and GTA blackouts and ensued rise of hydro costs
-----We can do it but together----
https://vimeo.com/16061080
https://youtu.be/Yu_nhaLCw-s
Newbie
Jan 16, 2014
68 posts
25 upvotes
Toronto
johnbeumer wrote: Hi All: Just found this informative thread. I am approved for a 10KW microfit and the application was completed by a local installer who has now given me a quote that seems a bit higher than what I am seeing in posts here. In summary, I am quoted a bit over $35,000 for 40 heliene 250 watt positive tolerance panels, 2 Power One 5 KW inverters on a Galaxy roof mounting extrusion system. This is being installed on a south facing one story barn. All costs/fees are included except HST which we will recoup. Engineering has been approved and paid. It's not out a lot, and perhaps these panels are better than others making the cost higher? Any opinions greatly appreciated. I realize that the contractor's help and time so far is certainly worth something in all this. Thanks!
If you want please send me your roof layout that they made for you or alternatively a google image of your roof with indication of direction or compass on it. I will be so happy to help you with that.
Toronto and GTA blackouts and ensued rise of hydro costs
-----We can do it but together----
https://vimeo.com/16061080
https://youtu.be/Yu_nhaLCw-s
Member
Jun 23, 2010
377 posts
155 upvotes
My roof is 7 years old and my friend who looked at it said it has about 12 years left in them. I'm debating whether to upgrade the roof or do it down the road and also how much is a dismount and remount of the panels?

Any advice is much appreciated.

Tiberious
Newbie
Jan 16, 2014
68 posts
25 upvotes
Toronto
Tiberious wrote: My roof is 7 years old and my friend who looked at it said it has about 12 years left in them. I'm debating whether to upgrade the roof or do it down the road and also how much is a dismount and remount of the panels?

Any advice is much appreciated.

Tiberious
I would keep the roof as is. Check the shingles if they have another 3,4 years on them to go crumbly looking. if not, everything is good for up to 10 years after installations.
Installations vary by type of systems (string or micro), roof angles, and layout orientation.
Toronto and GTA blackouts and ensued rise of hydro costs
-----We can do it but together----
https://vimeo.com/16061080
https://youtu.be/Yu_nhaLCw-s
Jr. Member
User avatar
Dec 28, 2004
101 posts
4 upvotes
Toronto
feryuo wrote: I would keep the roof as is. Check the shingles if they have another 3,4 years on them to go crumbly looking. if not, everything is good for up to 10 years after installations.
Installations vary by type of systems (string or micro), roof angles, and layout orientation.

How about adding another layer of shingles on top of the existing layer? Less costly I assume and knowing the roof should last longer than the panels.
Newbie
Jan 16, 2014
68 posts
25 upvotes
Toronto
MagicWater wrote: How about adding another layer of shingles on top of the existing layer? Less costly I assume and knowing the roof should last longer than the panels.
Repairing shingles should always be performed from bottom up, meaning that when you have a flapping shingles it means that the glue, tar, asphalt, or etc. on the layer underneath the loose ones are not good any more. So, I say your suggestion doesn't work here.
This is the problem with "non coated" aluminum flashing that we used for mounting system back in 2009. They got loose, roofs were leaking, production problems due to disconnects in their wires after their displacements over time. That why I always recommend to find a project manager or installer for contracting your solar system and bypass salesman and those pretty promises backed by nothing. Local installers are there forever but salesman changes career from cosmetics to solar to clothing etc. Local installers offer lower prices (not crazy low) and keep the quality of work higher as they see themselves directly responsible for your satisfaction.
Toronto and GTA blackouts and ensued rise of hydro costs
-----We can do it but together----
https://vimeo.com/16061080
https://youtu.be/Yu_nhaLCw-s
Newbie
Jan 16, 2014
68 posts
25 upvotes
Toronto
What kind of portfolio are we talking about, can you expand on that. Also what are options in that portfolio, banks, institutions and stocks or bonds vary widely. Can you if you see this thread proper bring examples and support calculations by those examples? Also what are the implications for tax purposes? Micro fit tax implications dictate that if you register HST # for the system, you claim the tax you paid on the system and also you collect taxes when you are paid each month. However if you don't do the first, you will never be needed to collect HST and consequently file taxes for the system. It only goes to your personal (other ) income while filing taxes each year and that totally depends on your income for that year for how much you pay taxes for that income.
Thanks
Toronto and GTA blackouts and ensued rise of hydro costs
-----We can do it but together----
https://vimeo.com/16061080
https://youtu.be/Yu_nhaLCw-s
Deal Guru
User avatar
Nov 18, 2005
11955 posts
3699 upvotes
Kingston
[EDIT: The context of the comments below has disappeared as eonibm has deleted the calculations he'd posted as well as his defence of them. I'll leave it to the thread reader as to why the calculations and comments were deleted as no errors were acknowledged.]

In the course of looking at eonibm's work above I identified issues with both it and my own work. Cue the abusive comments from eonibm.

Issues with the work above:
1. Initial investment has been deducted from the microFIT side but not the stock side. Since the investment is the same with both (and becomes part of the stock portfolio amount but not the microFIT amount, which is OK) there is no need to deduct if from either. With this correction microFIT will be back to being the champ!
2. While I understand the logic of reinvesting the microFIT cashflows in stocks with the same return it significantly muddies the waters and reduces the actual gap between the two approaches in appropriately. Discounted cash flows is the clean approach to demonstrate the different investment opportunities.


Here is an updated summary of the total return after taxes of microFIT (@38.4 cents per kwh, 2015 rate) and a stock portfolio averaging 4% capital gain and 3% dividend (increasing at 4% capital gain) over 20 years. Stock returns are 0.5% higher than previously noted. First "column" is income, second is microFIT return, third is Stock return.

Income -- microFIT -- Stock
before ---- return ----- return
Inv
income

50,000 ---- 9.9% ------ 6.8%
75,000 ---- 9.8% ------ 6.7%
85,000 ---- 9.6% ------ 6.5%
95,000 ---- 8.8% ------ 5.9% (same tax rate up to $140K)

microFIT returns on the 2016 rates are well below the stock scenario (6.0% at $50K of income, 5.2% at $95K).
A stock return of 3% dividend + 7.0% annual capital gain would give the same return as microFIT (but of course have liquidity).
Expected power generation for years 21-30 would add 1.1% to microFIT returns but could be at least partly offset by maintenance costs (inverter replacement, panel removal for roofing).
Jr. Member
Nov 29, 2011
186 posts
39 upvotes
Toronto
On another note....yesterday was my best day in 2 months. Produced almost 48 KWHs in a really powerful sun.....Awesome!
Member
Sep 12, 2013
326 posts
192 upvotes
Mississauga
What are the cons of doing an installation during winter?

- Hindrance due to snow
- Not much revenue potential ...but Frankdee shows this winter is quite fruitful.
- Risk to shingles? More risk of bad installation? Risk due to Leakage?
Newbie
Jan 16, 2014
68 posts
25 upvotes
Toronto
Expect a bit of delay during winter time. If there's 1ft of snow you can't install the same with installation in freezing <-10 daily temperature.
Depending on age of shingles and racking type, if theres no flashing, some shingles may lose their cohesiveness to lower layer
March, May and April are amazing time of a year for production due to cooler weather and lots of sunshine.
Overall, this year's winter is the best to install.
Toronto and GTA blackouts and ensued rise of hydro costs
-----We can do it but together----
https://vimeo.com/16061080
https://youtu.be/Yu_nhaLCw-s
Jr. Member
Nov 29, 2011
186 posts
39 upvotes
Toronto
Im definitely not making what I was in the fall but Im making much more than last month. My first full month on line was Sept(1300+KWHs). My roof has an almost 9 12 pitch and faces south west so Im thinking that I make more than most installations in the winter simply because of the ability of catching the low sun angles as well as the snow sliding off the panels faster. I think I might make close to 1800 KWHs or more in the spring months if it doesn't get too warm.....we will see. The solar panels lose quite a bit when the days get hotter. That is why so many made good power last June and July....it stayed cooler than most summers.
Deal Guru
User avatar
Nov 18, 2005
11955 posts
3699 upvotes
Kingston
eonibm wrote: You are totally wrong. It should be self-explanatory to you but I will explain anyway:

The value of the portfolio value after tax is $95,806.

The value of the microFIT installation is the microFIT portfolio after tax which is $73,542 + the present value of the microFIT at year 20 that you paid $31,650 initially. Of course you have to deduct that $31,650 from the $105,102 value after tax of the portfolio because you had spend that money on an asset, ie the microFIT, in order to receive that income stream. It was an input, the income stream was an output. Inputs always have to be deducted from outputs. If that asset, ie the microFIT, is worth $23,353 at year 20 then the 2 scenarios are equal..

Anyone who understand the basics of accounting knows the you can't just ignore the $31,650 paid for the microFIT. The fact that you think it need not even be taken into account shows that any numbers you come up with cannot be trusted. I can't believe you are an accountant but your other incorrect answers to other financial questions (which I have corrected you on) sure raised my suspicions more than once.

As for discounted cash flows, that is not the way to compare the after-tax returns of a microFIT investment vs an investment portfolio and your incorrect statements have proven it.

Lastly, please stop with the constant comments that anyone who corrects your constant mistakes is being abusive. Leaving people to be misled by your statements is what is abusive.
You are totally wrong. It should be self-explanatory to you but I will explain anyway: In both cases you write a cheque for $31,650 and end up with a portfolio of $X at the end.

In your Scenario 1 you put $31,650 into the portfolio and end up with $95,806 (which includes the original $31.650).

In your microFIT scenario you put $31,650 into the portfolio and it is gone onto your roof. By your calculations you end up with $105,102 in your portfolio (which does not include the original $31,650) + 20 year old panels on your roof.

Discounted cash flows are the most clear way to compare investments, especially those that are different in nature.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Jan 14, 2012
1457 posts
685 upvotes
Woodbridge
Frankdee wrote: Im definitely not making what I was in the fall but Im making much more than last month. My first full month on line was Sept(1300+KWHs). My roof has an almost 9 12 pitch and faces south west so Im thinking that I make more than most installations in the winter simply because of the ability of catching the low sun angles as well as the snow sliding off the panels faster. I think I might make close to 1800 KWHs or more in the spring months if it doesn't get too warm.....we will see. The solar panels lose quite a bit when the days get hotter. That is why so many made good power last June and July....it stayed cooler than most summers.
Thanks for the answer, was going to ask. 48 kwhs in the winter is a great day just got over half of that yesterday!
Jr. Member
Nov 29, 2011
186 posts
39 upvotes
Toronto
I have 5 panels on the South south east side at the same pitch. It would be interesting to compare systems on the same day at various times of the year. Is your system a full 10kw system? Also what area of woodbridge are you in? Have a nice day.
Jr. Member
Nov 29, 2011
186 posts
39 upvotes
Toronto
As for the two of you comparing which is better. I for one have not played the market in years and many of my friends that have anywhere from 100gs to 10 million gs invested never seem to sleep well at night. I learned a long time ago that the markets are a game for the big boys and the big boys make their money from the little boys. Some of those big boys have solar on their homes with battery back up because they too know full well that we are in very unstable times and getting worse. They want to have power when the lights go out and they will one day. Solar is the way of the future. Your calculations above mean very little as the solar income is guaranteed but investments rarely are and again I have slept a lot better since the days I invested in the market. As for your calculations of future prices for hydro....I would start my calculations at the average or mid peak power which right now just went to about 12.5 cents a kph and when moving that up at a rate of 4 percent brings you to almost 30cents per kWh but you are forgetting to add the carbon taxes that will be added to our future billings as well along with the delivery charges and only god knows what else will be added to our hydro bills in the future. My solar panels are guaranteed to by churning at least 80% in 25 years and from what I've been told is that the manufactures are thinking closer to 90% efficiency but want to cover their asses with the 80% number. I like the thought of being off the grid one day and already know some that are off the grid up north living in their homes totally powered by solar and a back up diesel generator. To compare investments in solar to market investments does not make much sense really as they are two different things. I am wealthy enough to do both but only choose to do solar. I like the thought of that return on my money versus the unknown.
Deal Expert
User avatar
Aug 2, 2010
15196 posts
5016 upvotes
Here 'n There
Frankdee wrote: As for the two of you comparing which is better. I for one have not played the market in years and many of my friends that have anywhere from 100gs to 10 million gs invested never seem to sleep well at night. I learned a long time ago that the markets are a game for the big boys and the big boys make their money from the little boys. Some of those big boys have solar on their homes with battery back up because they too know full well that we are in very unstable times and getting worse. They want to have power when the lights go out and they will one day. Solar is the way of the future. Your calculations above mean very little as the solar income is guaranteed but investments rarely are and again I have slept a lot better since the days I invested in the market. As for your calculations of future prices for hydro....I would start my calculations at the average or mid peak power which right now just went to about 12.5 cents a kph and when moving that up at a rate of 4 percent brings you to almost 30cents per kWh but you are forgetting to add the carbon taxes that will be added to our future billings as well along with the delivery charges and only god knows what else will be added to our hydro bills in the future. My solar panels are guaranteed to by churning at least 80% in 25 years and from what I've been told is that the manufactures are thinking closer to 90% efficiency but want to cover their asses with the 80% number. I like the thought of being off the grid one day and already know some that are off the grid up north living in their homes totally powered by solar and a back up diesel generator. To compare investments in solar to market investments does not make much sense really as they are two different things. I am wealthy enough to do both but only choose to do solar. I like the thought of that return on my money versus the unknown.
Nah, the big boys don't make $ either. Just invest in index funds and you'll do 7% easy long term. That's beats 19 out of 20 of all the big boys. It's proven.

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