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Ottawa Real Estate market discussion

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[OP]
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Nov 26, 2004
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Ottawa Real Estate market discussion

With the most recent news about the federal government actually laying off people instead of their election promise of elimination by attriction,

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/pol ... le2067855/

Is this going to put a chill in Ottawa's real estate market? I'm sure this type of news is going to get the Civil Servants to think twice before they enter the Real Estate market. In fact, the entire economy in Ottawa may slow as we see more news like this one, as this is pretty much a one industry town.
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Ottawa's market doesn't chill, if anything it remains steady even when other citys are tanking....Also depends on the area, the area I'm in, all I need to do is open my door and whisper that my house is for sale and people will lineup to buy...I have personally sold 3 homes in this area over the last 2 years, some investment properties.
"Sometimes I dig the dirty yet sweet oriental pong of this frag, but I wonder if it really makes sense to smell like I've hidden spice bags in all of my pockets?" ~basenotes.net
[OP]
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Diamondog wrote:
Jun 21st, 2011 8:17 am
Ottawa's market doesn't chill, if anything it remains steady even when other citys are tanking....Also depends on the area, the area I'm in, all I need to do is open my door and whisper that my house is for sale and people will lineup to buy...I have personally sold 3 homes in this area over the last 2 years, some investment properties.

I don't know, what you're saying may be true during the good times, but not with the latest announcements. In fact, I would think this is going to be a case where other cities in this country remain steady and Ottawa tanks.

In the 90s, when the Liberal was cutting down the size of the government, real estate market definitely took a chill. Like I said, this is an one industry town, and that is the government and everything in this city revolves around it. Simply, from a civil servant perspective, will you be upgrading or buying new homes when your job is insecure? Also, because of the hiring freeze, how many more people will move in to this city?

Fundamentally speaking, a slower population growth + job uncertainty (possibly increase unemployment) + low income growth(no promotion, low salary increase) = depressed real estate prices, no?
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Nah....I believe Ottawa holds steady, just a couple years ago the gov't did the same thing, cut a bunch of jobs etc.....I believe these cuts, non replacements will have little to no impact...just my thoughts...
"Sometimes I dig the dirty yet sweet oriental pong of this frag, but I wonder if it really makes sense to smell like I've hidden spice bags in all of my pockets?" ~basenotes.net
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William W wrote:
Jun 21st, 2011 9:07 am
I don't know, what you're saying may be true during the good times, but not with the latest announcements. In fact, I would think this is going to be a case where other cities in this country remain steady and Ottawa tanks.

In the 90s, when the Liberal was cutting down the size of the government, real estate market definitely took a chill. Like I said, this is an one industry town, and that is the government and everything in this city revolves around it. Simply, from a civil servant perspective, will you be upgrading or buying new homes when your job is insecure? Also, because of the hiring freeze, how many more people will move in to this city?

Fundamentally speaking, a slower population growth + job uncertainty (possibly increase unemployment) + low income growth(no promotion, low salary increase) = depressed real estate prices, no?

Liberal media is making a big deal out of nothing to make the Tories look bad. 700 jobs at PWGSC in the next 2 years? Most of them being retiring baby boomers not being replaced. How big is that to the 1500+ homes/month selling in Ottawa (this number is when things are considered 'slow' for Ottawa)

11 000 people leave GOC every year...now they're saying many won't be replaced. They still need to be living somewhere...sure many may migrate elsewhere but many more will migrate here.

The federal government is still pushing towards 3 million employees accross the country...let's not make a mountain out of a mole hill.
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Cas77 wrote:
Jun 21st, 2011 11:45 am
The federal government is still pushing towards 3 million employees accross the country...let's not make a mountain out of a mole hill.
Do you have link to verifiable source. This way we can easily check if they are trimming the fat or it is just "smoke and mirrors".
[OP]
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Cas77 wrote:
Jun 21st, 2011 11:45 am
Liberal media is making a big deal out of nothing to make the Tories look bad. 700 jobs at PWGSC in the next 2 years? Most of them being retiring baby boomers not being replaced. How big is that to the 1500+ homes/month selling in Ottawa (this number is when things are considered 'slow' for Ottawa)

It's all psychological and the surrounding uncertainties surrounding everyone jobs that makes the economy go down. Just like the Financial Crisis, in reality, as compare to the overall population, there aren't that many people who lost their job, but you're right, after the media spun it, it affected everyone psychology and people stop spending because they are afraid they will be next.

I can see the same thing happening, PWGSC is the first one, or the tip of the ice berg, when other big departments like Health Canada, HRSDC, National Defence comes out with their figures, this will probably sink in more. And by budget time next year, there is always a possibility of a second round of cut after this initial one. I think it is also the tone that is being said here by the government, which is "consider yourself lucky that you have a job, don't bother coming to us and ask for a wage increase." I don't know, but I would think Civil Servants will be tightening their wallets in Ottawa soon.
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Ottawa, like most other areas of the country, has serious economic problems. Much of Ottawa's high value tech industry has been wiped out, and what has remained has survived on big government. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that Ottawa, like most other places in Canada, is now experiencing a real estate decline.

Actually, pretty much all of Canada is in a decline if you exclude Toronto and Vancouver.
TodayHello wrote:
Oct 16th, 2012 9:06 pm
...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
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May 24, 2007
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Let's put it into perspective. According to CMHC, Ottawa has 110,000 government employees. It has two universities and there are many companies and sections.

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/co/buho/s ... ot_003.cfm

Ottawa has a steady immigration to make up a population of 917,550 in 2010. Also, household income is relatively high at 1,019/weekly. Real estate market in Ottawa should remain strong and steady!
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Mark77 wrote:
Jun 21st, 2011 12:52 pm
Actually, pretty much all of Canada is in a decline if you exclude Toronto and Vancouver.
How do you support this statement? Any stats?
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peter_ross wrote:
Jun 21st, 2011 12:55 pm
How do you support this statement? Any stats?

He likes to make up stuff - just look at his posts in the real estate thread - so I'm guessing all you'll get from him is alot of verbiage but no stats.

RE: Ottawa's housing market - I haven't seen any stats that suggest its "grinding to halt" As someone else pointed out, much of the gov't cutbacks are attrition of older workers/early retirement etc. That is unlikely to have a material impact on the residential market. But gov't cutbacks will have a bigger impact on the commercial side, particularly as gov't services are relocated from the more expensive downtown to the cheaper suburban areas. I bet commercial vacancy rates in downtown Ottawa will rise to their highest levels since the 95/96 era of cutbacks over the next while.
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bcbgboy13 wrote:
Jun 21st, 2011 11:57 am
Do you have link to verifiable source. This way we can easily check if they are trimming the fat or it is just "smoke and mirrors".

Sorry my bad. This is for all levels of government (fed, prov, mun). These stats are from 2005...but there haven't been any major changes until now.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/68-213-s/2 ... 15-eng.htm

Employment in the government sector reached an historical peak in 1992 with 2,724,781 employees. Government employment then declined to a low of 2,509,106 employees in 1999, before starting to climb again. Namely, 2005 was the sixth consecutive year posting an increase. However, the number of government employees was 0.3% lower than its 1992 level.

At its peak level in 1992, government employment represented 21.4% of total employment.2 From this moment on, this proportion has continuously declined to reach 16.8% in 2005
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Cas77 wrote:
Jun 21st, 2011 1:24 pm
Sorry my bad. This is for all levels of government (fed, prov, mun). These stats are from 2005...but there haven't been any major changes until now.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/68-213-s/2 ... 15-eng.htm

Employment in the government sector reached an historical peak in 1992 with 2,724,781 employees. Government employment then declined to a low of 2,509,106 employees in 1999, before starting to climb again. Namely, 2005 was the sixth consecutive year posting an increase. However, the number of government employees was 0.3% lower than its 1992 level.

At its peak level in 1992, government employment represented 21.4% of total employment.2 From this moment on, this proportion has continuously declined to reach 16.8% in 2005
If you are only going to use Stats Canada you can at least provide the most recent data (the one from 1992 or even 2005 is very old) - and these are released every month.
The latest one is here - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/subjects-sujet ... a2-eng.htm

According to this for May 2011 the "public sector" employs 3,539,600 and the private one - 11,054,300

And the "declining" in the public service - if you consider the employment In Jan. 2007 for 100, the "public" sector has grown to 112 by Dec. 2010 - 12%


Nice picture:
[IMG]http://beta.images.theglobeandmail.com/ ... 47651a.jpg[/IMG]


The OP talks strictly about the federal employment only.
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My understanding is that compared to other cities, the Ottawa real estate board is very stingy in releasing statistics on the health of the local RE market -- so it may be difficult to get a good sense of what's going on in terms of new listings, active inventory, median price, etc.
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May 16, 2011
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I'm not sure if this helps the discussions here but here is a break down of where, among different ministries, the conservatives are planning to cut public sector jobs...

While public sector as a whole will see cutbacks, a lot of the more important ministries (no pun intended) will actually see gains...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/pol ... om=2067855


[IMG]http://beta.images.theglobeandmail.com/ ... 86425a.jpg[/IMG]

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