Real Estate

Ottawa Real Estate market discussion

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Sr. Member
Dec 4, 2016
921 posts
344 upvotes
William W wrote:
Jul 4th, 2018 7:53 pm
I think it is all relative.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-ap ... -1.4422568

Generally speaking, 3% vacancy rate is considered a balance market. 1.7% is well below that. Is it ultra tight like GVRD? No. But it is lower than other Ontario cities like Hamilton and London. And like you pointed out, and the redevelopment at Heron Gate.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/he ... -1.4727290

When the new apartments comes online, I bet you they will be charging higher than the current average rent, which in turn should pull up the city's average rents and a 10% increase in average rent in the next year or two may not be out of the question.

Given where the rental market is at, how the spring real estate market was, and interest rate is not going up as fast as experts predicted, those who wants to buy and can afford to do so may not want to time the market as it could be a busy fall market in Ottawa.
I agree that fall market would be a busy one in Ottawa. Price is just beginning to recover from the federal layoff years, and there's no obvious negative economic shock in the short to medium term. High desirable areas like westboro have seen significant price growth, and the next logical step would be cookie-cutter suburbs to follow suite, but perhaps not to the same extent. I do think the bad neighborhoods are some way away from gentrifying though. Ottawa is still pretty affordable and traffic is not really that bad.

For the Heron Gate redevelopment, I wish the developer best of luck. Tearing down old and dangerous rental stock is certainly a net plus for the city, and the community that replaces it would hopefully be safer.
Deal Addict
Nov 13, 2013
1494 posts
577 upvotes
Ottawa
BlueSolstice wrote:
Jul 4th, 2018 11:32 pm
I agree that fall market would be a busy one in Ottawa. Price is just beginning to recover from the federal layoff years, and there's no obvious negative economic shock in the short to medium term. High desirable areas like westboro have seen significant price growth, and the next logical step would be cookie-cutter suburbs to follow suite, but perhaps not to the same extent. I do think the bad neighborhoods are some way away from gentrifying though. Ottawa is still pretty affordable and traffic is not really that bad.

For the Heron Gate redevelopment, I wish the developer best of luck. Tearing down old and dangerous rental stock is certainly a net plus for the city, and the community that replaces it would hopefully be safer.
Actually in percentage terms haven't the "cookie cutter suburbs" gone up more in value. Basically the cheaper stuff having gone up more. Westboro and adjacent areas has done a bit better than the other two marquee areas The Glebe/Old Ottawa South and New Edinburgh/Linden Lea/ Rockcliffe. Likely the LRT could be a factor? They already have good Transitway connection to Centretown but a Train has much more cache and will be a bit faster and more reliable.
Newbie
Feb 13, 2008
46 posts
16 upvotes
News from Ottawa Real Estate Board:

Condo Sales Keep Market from Over Heating

July 5, 2018



Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 2,070 residential properties in June through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 2,163 in June 2017, a decrease of 4.3 per cent. The five-year average for June sales is 1,914. June’s sales included 455 in the condominium property class, an increase of 11.5 per cent from June 2017 and 1,615 in the residential property class, a decrease of 8 per cent from a year ago.

“The first half of 2018 has performed very well with the number of year to date residential sales almost identical to this time last year,” states Ralph Shaw, Ottawa Real Estate Board President. “Condo unit sales have led the way, increasing by 16.8 per cent over the same period.”

“The robust condo numbers are likely fueled by lack of inventory, particularly in the lower price points of the single-family resale market. For example, in the first half of the year there has been a decrease of 37 per cent in the number of single-family units sold at the $250-275K price point and a 41 per cent decrease for the $275-300K price range, whereas there is a corresponding increase in condo sales of 49 per cent and 22 per cent respectively for those same price points,” Shaw points out.

“This suggests that at the lower end of the single-family resale market, buyers are turning towards condominium units as a way of achieving ownership at a price they can afford. The oversupply in our condo market that once was an issue is now helping to ease our overall inventory shortage.”

“Further, with construction costs up (concrete is one example) as well as increasing development fees, and skilled labour at a premium which is extending build timelines, the price of purchasing a new build is simply out of reach for many entry-level buyers,” he adds. “The options then become to move further outside the urban boundary to less expensive markets in surrounding communities.”

The year to date average Days on Market (DOM) for residential homes has decreased 18 per cent from 46 days in 2017 to 37 days currently. For condos, the DOM has decreased from 71 days to 52 days, a 27 per cent decrease from June 2017.

“The decrease in DOMs indicates that inventory is turning over much more quickly, likely due to the lack of available inventory in certain areas of Ottawa. To increase the number of listings available, we need the right product availability to entice sellers to give up their homes, particularly boomers. Many have indicated they would happily list their homes if we could offer them a property that fits into the lifestyle that they want. The downtown apartment condo is not at the top of their list,” remarks Shaw.

The average sale price of a residential-class property sold in June in the Ottawa area was $449,200, an increase of 3.4 per cent over June 2017. The average sale price for a condominium-class property was $293,303, an increase of 1.2 per cent from June 2017. Year to date, residential properties have seen a 5.2 per cent increase in average price with a 1.1 per cent price increase for condominiums.*

“Ottawa’s real estate market continues to move forward at a reasonable pace. Undoubtedly, inventory remains low, but our property prices continue to be stable and affordable. We are very fortunate not to be experiencing the volatility of other markets in our country,” Shaw acknowledges.

In addition to residential and condominium sales, OREB Members assisted clients with renting 1,320 properties since the beginning of the year.
Newbie
Feb 13, 2008
46 posts
16 upvotes
The price is only up 3.4% (Year over Year) in Ottawa, while London Ontario is up 11% (Year over Year). Not to mention, London Ontario is up 33% since June 2016 and it is impacted by the buyer taxes.

Ottawa and London are both around 4hrs driving distance from GTA, and I don't see any good employments opportunities in London. Black Question Mark Ornament

https://lfpress.com/business/local-busi ... te-dilemma
Sr. Member
Feb 25, 2014
867 posts
287 upvotes
Ottawa
Uncledan wrote:
Jul 5th, 2018 9:34 am
The price is only up 3.4% (Year over Year) in Ottawa, while London Ontario is up 11% (Year over Year). Not to mention, London Ontario is up 33% since June 2016 and it is impacted by the buyer taxes.

Ottawa and London are both around 4hrs driving distance from GTA, and I don't see any good employments opportunities in London. Black Question Mark Ornament

https://lfpress.com/business/local-busi ... te-dilemma
London is less than 2 hrs from downtown Toronto. You must be thinking of Windsor.

My wife and I plan to retire to London in less than 10 years. Hopefully, this trend reverses.
Sr. Member
Dec 4, 2016
921 posts
344 upvotes
fogetmylogin wrote:
Jul 5th, 2018 2:35 am
Actually in percentage terms haven't the "cookie cutter suburbs" gone up more in value. Basically the cheaper stuff having gone up more. Westboro and adjacent areas has done a bit better than the other two marquee areas The Glebe/Old Ottawa South and New Edinburgh/Linden Lea/ Rockcliffe. Likely the LRT could be a factor? They already have good Transitway connection to Centretown but a Train has much more cache and will be a bit faster and more reliable.
I never thought about the Glebe and Rockcliffe. Living in Kanata for so long, I almost forgot there are houses east of downtown! When all areas are taken into account, suburban townhomes probably did best, with Kanata and Barrhaven towns being particularly strong. In particular, downtown condos don't seem to be doing all that well, in contrast to Toronto.
Member
Aug 6, 2011
383 posts
125 upvotes
I know some people in Ottawa who decided to jump into the Gatineau market because of high price in Ottawa. Condos, Gatineau, still plenty of lands for development in the area all put a break on price jump on freehold houses.
Member
Aug 6, 2011
383 posts
125 upvotes
My 1 bedroom rental unit in the west end was rented very fast, despite a substantial rent increase since last year. many quality tenants to choose from. So yeah, those numbers are true.

William W wrote:
Jul 4th, 2018 7:53 pm
I think it is all relative.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-ap ... -1.4422568

Generally speaking, 3% vacancy rate is considered a balance market. 1.7% is well below that. Is it ultra tight like GVRD? No. But it is lower than other Ontario cities like Hamilton and London. And like you pointed out, and the redevelopment at Heron Gate.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/he ... -1.4727290

When the new apartments comes online, I bet you they will be charging higher than the current average rent, which in turn should pull up the city's average rents and a 10% increase in average rent in the next year or two may not be out of the question.

Given where the rental market is at, how the spring real estate market was, and interest rate is not going up as fast as experts predicted, those who wants to buy and can afford to do so may not want to time the market as it could be a busy fall market in Ottawa.
Sr. Member
Feb 25, 2014
867 posts
287 upvotes
Ottawa
BlueSolstice wrote:
Jul 5th, 2018 9:43 am
I never thought about the Glebe and Rockcliffe. Living in Kanata for so long, I almost forgot there are houses east of downtown! When all areas are taken into account, suburban townhomes probably did best, with Kanata and Barrhaven towns being particularly strong. In particular, downtown condos don't seem to be doing all that well, in contrast to Toronto.
I live right beside Rockcliffe (in Manor Park). Houses stay on the market there for a looong time. There is one custom home on sale that I go past almost every day. It's a beautiful house in a great spot. But it's been on the market for over a year. I guess the demand for $2+ million homes in Ottawa is extremely small.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 26, 2004
2249 posts
331 upvotes
Uncledan wrote:
Jul 5th, 2018 9:34 am
The price is only up 3.4% (Year over Year) in Ottawa, while London Ontario is up 11% (Year over Year). Not to mention, London Ontario is up 33% since June 2016 and it is impacted by the buyer taxes.

Ottawa and London are both around 4hrs driving distance from GTA, and I don't see any good employments opportunities in London. Black Question Mark Ornament

https://lfpress.com/business/local-busi ... te-dilemma
And to add, Ottawa has a higher median income than London. Could it be because London is closer to Waterloo and the high tech sector there? Their property taxes are lower?

Though, I can see if NAFTA talks breakdown or the trade war between Canada and the US escalate, unfortunately, people who works there may get caught. There are certainly a lot more manufacturing and agriculture jobs in Southern Ontario as compare to Ottawa.
Last edited by William W on Jul 5th, 2018 12:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Member
Aug 14, 2007
380 posts
149 upvotes
Ottawa
yow2kvil wrote:
Jul 5th, 2018 10:00 am
I live right beside Rockcliffe (in Manor Park). Houses stay on the market there for a looong time. There is one custom home on sale that I go past almost every day. It's a beautiful house in a great spot. But it's been on the market for over a year. I guess the demand for $2+ million homes in Ottawa is extremely small.
Actually, anything over 1million is not easy to sell in Ottawa. That why I see many properties lower their price to 995k in Westboro area.
Sr. Member
Dec 4, 2016
921 posts
344 upvotes
William W wrote:
Jul 5th, 2018 11:36 am
And to add, Ottawa has a higher median income than London. Could it be because London is closer to Waterloo and the high tech sector there? Their property taxes are lower?

Though, I can see if NAFTA talks breakdown or the trade war between Canada and the US escalate, unfortunately, people who works there may get caught. There are certainly a lot more manufacturing and agriculture jobs in Southern Ontario as compare to Ottawa.
I do believe London RE is in a bubble. It's close to GTA, but definitely not in commuting distance. It's also surrounded by huge amount of available land, so it's just a matter of time before builders flood the market with infinite number of freehold towns. The upside for London, compared to Ottawa, is that it doesn't need to recover from the federal layoff and its effect on RE first. Household income is not all that relevant for RE prices, population density is.
Sr. Member
Feb 25, 2014
867 posts
287 upvotes
Ottawa
BlueSolstice wrote:
Jul 5th, 2018 1:00 pm
I do believe London RE is in a bubble. It's close to GTA, but definitely not in commuting distance.
It's definitely not a 5-days a week commute but I do know people who live in London but whose jobs are located in the GTA. They commute 1 or 2 days per week and work remotely the rest of the time. I believe around 20% of recent home purchases in London are by people from the GTA.

There is also talk of a high-speed train project in southern Ontario where the London to Toronto section would be the first one built. Although, I'll believe that when I see it - especially with the PCs now in power.
Sr. Member
Dec 4, 2016
921 posts
344 upvotes
yow2kvil wrote:
Jul 5th, 2018 1:57 pm
It's definitely not a 5-days a week commute but I do know people who live in London but whose jobs are located in the GTA. They commute 1 or 2 days per week and work remotely the rest of the time. I believe around 20% of recent home purchases in London are by people from the GTA.

There is also talk of a high-speed train project in southern Ontario where the London to Toronto section would be the first one built. Although, I'll believe that when I see it - especially with the PCs now in power.
London to downtown TO is like twice the distance from Guelph to downtown TO. I can see people doing such extreme commute if one person in a household works in London and another works in GTA.

I don't doubt people in GTA are buying in London. But I don't think it would prove to be a good investment. Too much available land and not enough population/jobs within the area.
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Jun 28, 2003
9811 posts
2955 upvotes
Ottawa
I have received a couple of recent emails from Minto saying there are still lots available for Riversbend Phase 1. I thought it was sold out, per audiorichard’s post a few pages back?

Perhaps some buyers walked away after securing lots? Perhaps Minto was playing games, if you will, only releasing a small set of lots to hype up demand and when they didn’t sell out, due to price hike and rising rates (BoC may increase again on Wed), more lots are now available all of a sudden?
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