Investing

Recession incoming! (part 2)

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  • Oct 10th, 2019 10:25 am
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Dec 14, 2010
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ukrainiandude wrote:
Jan 8th, 2019 1:28 pm
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The first chart is a famous one from Bitcoin about "how bubbles look like". The 2nd one is from the stock market, suggesting that it will drop hard as the left one.

Because past prices predict futures ones. Because at a P/E of 14, the market is presently on a huge bubble. Because corporations didn't grow and made profits - including the ones with no debt, so current prices are artificially inflated.

It has to come down, right?


Rod
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rodbarc wrote:
Jan 8th, 2019 1:50 pm

The first chart is a famous one from Bitcoin about "how bubbles look like". The 2nd one is from the stock market, suggesting that it will drop hard as the left one.

Because past prices predict futures ones. Because at a P/E of 14, the market is presently on a huge bubble. Because corporations didn't grow and made profits - including the ones with no debt, so current prices are artificially inflated.

It has to come down, right?


Rod
Also interesting how the drop off at 2008 cuts off after and doesnt show the recovery that came after the fact. The scales of the axis of the two charys I am assuming S&P 500 dont even match.

There are differing opinions in regards to investing and the economy, but I really wonder what the intent of some of the posters are in regards to this?
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Oh no - Garth reads this thread! lol
Living through big crashes in the past – like 1987 or 2008 or 2011 – gives perspective. You learn that over 70% of the time markets go up. That corrections are scary but normal. That bear markets last a couple of years and show up about once a decade. That it always ends. Always followed by a surge. And that people who sell into a storm are fools while those why buy are usually geniuses.

The odds are – virtually 100% – that novice investors will fold in the first crisis that hits them.

Second, gambling isn’t investing. Buying individual stocks is rolling the dice, especially if you can only afford a few of them, have little diversification and got them because some anon Internet dude told you it was a good idea. Or, worse, your BIL.
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daivey wrote:
Jan 8th, 2019 8:39 pm
lol bil
LOL, You referring to this post here: recession-incoming-part-2-2228844/43/#p30323550

This thread here is one of the best contrarian indicators going in this forum. Check out some of the discussions around Dec. 24 and you will realize that was the best time to deploy cash.
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I am still waiting to buy stuff on sale.....I thought the recession was "incoming"??
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favelle75 wrote:
Jan 9th, 2019 3:17 pm
I am still waiting to buy stuff on sale.....I thought the recession was "incoming"??
That train already took off on Dec 26
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ak-47 wrote:
Jan 9th, 2019 3:26 pm
That train already took off on Dec 26
Damn, now will have to wait for "Recession incoming (part 3)" or 50% crash, whichever comes first.. :)

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Jun 28, 2016
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ak-47 wrote:
Jan 9th, 2019 3:26 pm
That train already took off on Dec 26
I'm not convinced. There is something seriously wrong with China.

"In December, retail sales of sedans, multipurpose vehicles and sport utility vehicles plummeted 19 percent -- the seventh straight monthly drop."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ntent=asia

And then there's this:

"Most export manufacturers in China have already moved or plan to shift some production outside the Chinese mainland, as the Sino-U.S. trade dispute adds to existing headwinds for businesses, a survey by Swiss investment bank UBS has showed.

Thirty-seven percent of the respondents said they have moved some production out of the mainland in the past year, the bank said in a report released on Friday about the poll. Another 33% of respondents said they plan to do so in the next six to 12 months."

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-01-08 ... 67788.html

And note that the declining sales started well before the trade war (Trump just exacerbated it). The collapse in German manufacturing activity is another worrying sign. We may get that global recession yet, and this could be a bull trap just as easily as it could be a V-shaped recovery. There are signs for both (as is often the case).

I'm not selling my gains since Dec 24th at the moment, but I also don't think that this is the moment to back up the truck.
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ak-47 wrote:
Jan 9th, 2019 3:26 pm
That train already took off on Dec 26
Now it’s “oh it bounced too much already, I’ll wait until it falls to the Dec 24th lows” and then for sure buy.
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Nov 9, 2013
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cartfan123 wrote:
Jan 9th, 2019 4:27 pm
Now it’s “oh it bounced too much already, I’ll wait until it falls to the Dec 24th lows” and then for sure buy.
It all hinges on what BIL is doing.
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freilona wrote:
Jan 9th, 2019 4:09 pm
Damn, now will have to wait for "Recession incoming (part 3)" or 50% crash, whichever comes first.. :)

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The OP started this thread Oct. 11. Maybe BIL meant pumpkin futures

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