Investing

Recession incoming! (part 2)

  • Last Updated:
  • Jan 21st, 2019 6:28 pm
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Aug 16, 2015
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holy crap at the ridiculous pumpers in here. this is nothing but a deadcat bounce.

cant believe the perma bulls are claiming victory already? pretty sad really.
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kilburn305 wrote:
Jan 9th, 2019 8:08 pm
holy crap at the ridiculous pumpers in here. this is nothing but a deadcat bounce.

cant believe the perma bulls are claiming victory already? pretty sad really.
Very profitable deadcat bounce for many of us.

Do agree that those that missed it and do not have LT horizon should wait. Once get sense of earnings and trade. May miss upside but if all worked out then much more upside and at same time not exposed to another revisit of Dec low.

Don't need mkt to go up to profit... up, down, sideways... always opportunities.
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georvu wrote:
Jan 9th, 2019 8:36 pm
Very profitable deadcat bounce for many of us.

Do agree that those that missed it and do not have LT horizon should wait. Once get sense of earnings and trade. May miss upside but if all worked out then much more upside and at same time not exposed to another revisit of Dec low.

Don't need mkt to go up to profit... up, down, sideways... always opportunities.
unless you sell the "profits" you made are zero.

are you also going to tell us that you happened to time the bottom perfectly?
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kilburn305 wrote:
Jan 9th, 2019 8:39 pm
unless you sell the "profits" you made are zero.

are you also going to tell us that you happened to time the bottom perfectly?
Nope, bought bit early and sold bit early BUT at profit.

I never time bottom or top perfectly... I am not perfect.
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Aw the futures are red again - thank you, killjoy305 :(
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kilburn305 wrote:
Jan 9th, 2019 8:08 pm
holy crap at the ridiculous pumpers in here. this is nothing but a deadcat bounce.

cant believe the perma bulls are claiming victory already? pretty sad really.
I suppose I am a perma bull. The nice thing about being a perma bull is that it's pretty easy to declare victory as over time the market pretty much goes up. Of course we can argue what "over time" means but the longer you wait the higher the likelihood is that the market is up.

Even the chart you posted above shows that if you invested in 1999 you've basically made 3x your money in return over the last 19 years (assuming you bought and hold).
Last edited by treva84 on Jan 9th, 2019 9:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Aug 16, 2015
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freilona wrote:
Jan 9th, 2019 8:50 pm
Aw the futures are red again - thank you, killjoy305 :(
lol sorry. I just try to see both sides of the argument. im not bearish but it's a little too bias in here.

I did add to my short position today. I'm trying to manage my risk.
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kilburn305 wrote:
Jan 9th, 2019 8:26 pm
Image

yup. time to go long. what could go wrong?
kilburn305 wrote:
Jan 9th, 2019 9:14 pm

lol sorry. I just try to see both sides of the argument. im not bearish but it's a little too bias in here.

I did add to my short position today. I'm trying to manage my risk.
Just curious, not trying to flame. I know you previously said you do not stock pick. So do you buy and short indices as you see fit?

And I think most posters here are just pointing out the fact OP only comes out when we had larger corrective days, yet after the fact, there seems to be not a peep, except for the few posters that say markets can potentially crash. (But just like any possibility, anything can happen). Timing-wise, he pretty much called a short-term bottom for traders.

You are right, technically markets could still correct, but I believe the majority of us that have been here long, it either doesnt matter as our portfolios are either longer term still or have sufficient coverage for such events. In my case I've picked individual stocks. So far, Im more than holding up.
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kilburn305 wrote:
Jan 9th, 2019 9:14 pm
lol sorry. I just try to see both sides of the argument.
Me2 :D I did BTC VTI covered calls on Dec 24th (“at the bottom”) - and was waiting for more upside to sell them again.. and for more downside to add to existing positions in my accounts :)
The game plan if the market stays firm

Blah-blah-blah

The game plan if the market turns down

Blah-blah-blah
(c) The game plan
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xgbsSS wrote:
Jan 9th, 2019 9:33 pm
Just curious, not trying to flame. I know you previously said you do not stock pick. So do you buy and short indices as you see fit?

And I think most posters here are just pointing out the fact OP only comes out when we had larger corrective days, yet after the fact, there seems to be not a peep, except for the few posters that say markets can potentially crash. (But just like any possibility, anything can happen). Timing-wise, he pretty much called a short-term bottom for traders.

You are right, technically markets could still correct, but I believe the majority of us that have been here long, it either doesnt matter as our portfolios are either longer term still or have sufficient coverage for such events. In my case I've picked individual stocks. So far, Im more than holding up.
I have been stock picking. I did well in 2017 but so would have a monkey throwing darts.

I will use indexes from now on.

All I want from Canada is probably some banks and pipes. so instead of buying royal, cibc, td TransCanada Enbridge and spending 35 bucks on commission to buy them I could just buy VDY for 1 commission charge and have better diversification. I don't really see any reason to buy individual stocks, look at what's happened to wells, apple, goldman and facebook recently. And these are supposed to be safe investments.
Last edited by kilburn305 on Jan 9th, 2019 11:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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rodbarc wrote:
Jan 8th, 2019 5:28 am
Japan is not US. Japan's 30 year bear market is unique to that country specifically, a country with a different economy, and its different driving dynamics, because Japanese are savers, not spenders, so stimulating credit doesn't help them. Japan cannot be compared with North America.

Rod
xgbsSS wrote:
Jan 8th, 2019 11:27 am
Japan's situation is/was unique. As someone who's lIved in both countries and experienced the after-effects from the crash, Japan is completely different from Canada's situation.
One point that I haven't noticed in this thread is that Japan is a very homogeneous and insular society. While most western societies have encouraged immigration, until recently, that isn't the case in Japan. Also have a look at the attached Birth vs Deaths and Marriages charts from todays WSJ.
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kilburn305 wrote:
Jan 9th, 2019 10:19 pm
I have been stock picking. I did well in 2017 but so would have a monkey throwing darts.

I will use indexes from now on.

All I want from Canada is probably some banks and pipes. so instead of buying royal, cibc, td TransCanada Enbridge and spending 35 bucks on commission to buy them I could just buy VDY for 1 commission charge and have better diversification. I don't really see any reason to buy individual stocks, look at what's happened to wells, apple, goldman and facebook recently. And these are supposed to be safe investments.
I think that is more at specifically what you are buying and how you are targeting them. I still see some compelling plays and all more at the moment because of the sell down. And for every one of those plays that went down, there are also some that went up. BAD for me hit a 52 week high today. My other shares in other companies are doing well too.
Keep also in mind "safe" stocks dont really exist. People just have a warped perception over the last few years that safe means it never goes down. Equity markets go down periodically and even good companies fall with the market. That is normal. I mitigate this with investing in companies I like based on using metrics such as margIns, profitability and earnings to pick shares that I deem undervalued at the price presented to me and that I am comfortable with holding long term. Im not perfect, but so far have done well.

For myself I have been grandfathered to VB's old commission structure so it is very easy for me to diversify to individual. Im assumIng you are not working with much capital to begIn with, if so going index might be the right way for you. I also index/passive invest a portion of my portfolio. The plan is to increase this overtime as well.

You mentioned shorting . What are you shortIng at the moment?
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MrMom wrote:
Jan 9th, 2019 11:12 pm



One point that I haven't noticed in this thread is that Japan is a very homogeneous and insular society. While most western societies have encouraged immigration, until recently, that isn't the case in Japan. Also have a look at the attached Birth vs Deaths and Marriages charts from todays WSJ.
While this is true, I think it is simplistic to look at this as an issue purely based on allowing immigration vs not.

Yes increasing immigration even a little in Japan would help tremendously as we lack the labour and tax base in addition to domestic demand. Japan has a strong soft power base that attracts many foreigners to want to come so there definitely is a demand. However, Japan could easily do things withIn it's own borders to dramatically improve the system. Increasing female labour participation for one could effectively increase the labour force by 20-30%. With a highly educated female population that gives up their career to start families or gives up on having a family to be able to have a career, both options result in a lower birth rate and reduced labour participation. Reducing cultural barriers and providing services such as accessible daycare could easily change this. They keep saying well Japan is a male dominated society, but many Western societies had similar situations. It was still common for women to be at home until the 1970s. To say Japan can't change is wrong,although it is a big challenge.

Additionally Japan has a really inefficient services sector. You can see this whenever visiting the country. Elevator girls in department stores, large amounts invested in custoner service, insistance on cash payment, bank ATMs are more often not 24/7 and requires your bank book etc. . These are nice and all, however at a time when labour is short, these people working in these sectors could likely be more effective in more productive jobs.

Although the lack of labour is causing problems, perhaps Japan may be early in a sweet spot in terms of human labour. There has been discussion by economists saying how robots and AI could takeover all the labour that is required. At that point, a large population may actually be a liability. We are not close to this point, however many jobs in factories are being replaced by industrial robots. Perhaps then with Japan being short workers, making meanIngful investments in these areas will keep the country ahead. Companies such as Fanuc are leaders in this area.

It will be interesting to see how things progress. Japan's problems are not unique. Western countries are all suffering the same low birth rate issues, however use immigration as a means to increase population. Some countries like S. Korea and Taiwan are in fact may become worse than Japan as their birth rates are even lower, however the population at the moment is younger. At some point however, this may not continue so it will be interesting to see how this unfolds.
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What is the OP's BIL's prediction for 2019 besides a recession?

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