Investing

Recession incoming! (part 2)

  • Last Updated:
  • Oct 21st, 2019 4:57 am
Member
Aug 16, 2015
431 posts
81 upvotes
cartfan123 wrote:
Jan 10th, 2019 9:14 pm
Again, thanks for laying bare what your "axe to grind" is. There might be some on here that thought you were actually approaching this sub forum to make money, when in fact you've just wandered off from the "off topic" sub forum to push an obvious agenda.
I see you have riveting strategies such as "long TD" and "dumpster dive maxar". Anything else?
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Sep 8, 2007
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kilburn305 wrote:
Jan 10th, 2019 9:20 pm
I see you have riveting strategies such as "long TD" and "dumpster dive maxar". Anything else?
Good stuff! Lets hear some more of your thoughts. Are you the infamous BIL?
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Dec 27, 2013
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xgbsSS wrote:
Jan 10th, 2019 2:41 pm
Other than for the sheer entertainment that this OP has given us, there is no reason to upvote this forum. And I really highly doubt anyone cares whether they get upvotes or downvotes. Obviously he has his own (unpopular) opinion.
up-votes help pitch tents.
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kilburn305 wrote:
Jan 10th, 2019 9:20 pm
I see you have riveting strategies such as "long TD" and "dumpster dive maxar". Anything else?
What's wrong with being long TD?
Member
Aug 16, 2015
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treva84 wrote:
Jan 10th, 2019 10:49 pm
What's wrong with being long TD?
nothing. personally im a bit concerned that housing seems to be rolling over. I don't plan to buy the banks at the moment.
Member
Jul 6, 2018
332 posts
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Um...Interest rates are going up to cool an overheated economy. This will have negative consequences on the economy. THAT'S THE WHOLE POINT of raising rates. Obviously this will have an effect on the stock market as well. No capitalism isn't ending, but the permabulls are laughably insane.
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poopooplatter wrote:
Jan 10th, 2019 11:49 pm
Um...Interest rates are going up to cool an overheated economy. This will have negative consequences on the economy. THAT'S THE WHOLE POINT of raising rates. Obviously this will have an effect on the stock market as well. No capitalism isn't ending, but the permabulls are laughably insane.
Things don't look great with China and Europe. I could see this as being a tough year for the stock market. I'm not a believer in market timing though. I'm going to keep buying index funds and stocks this year as I do every year.
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SickBeast wrote:
Jan 10th, 2019 4:34 pm
I respectfully disagree with you. IMO what we are seeing is China's rise technologically. They have been replicating Japan's far more advanced technology and manufacturing for years now. China's products are never as good, but they are more than good enough for the mass market, and they make up for any weakness with much cheaper prices. There is going to reach a point in time when they overtake the USA, and Canada by extension. There are more gifted students in India and China than there are students in the USA and Canada combined. We are witnessing the slow fall and decline of the Holy Roman Empire AKA the United States of America. This has been happening for at least a couple of decades now. Trump's protectionism is only going to make matters worse.

The fact of the matter is that corporations will go for cheaper labor every time. Wherever it's cheapest. Perhaps Africa will be the next place they outsource to. We can't fight it. It's just reality. Globalization. It happened a long time ago.

We can blame Trump for this entire mess IMO. He has been an inept (and racist) president from day one. A complete moron intellectually and he shows signs of mental/emotional instability also. Just look at the guy and think to yourself, why did he go into politics? He was already rich. He's in it for the power and he is in all likelihood highly narcissistic. He is a dangerous man to have in power. Sadly we have a lot of these guys on the world stage. The Chinese president doesn't give his people freedom. Putin is ruthless and he clearly usurps his people's money based on his vast wealth. The leader of Russia should not be the richest man in the world. How much does Justin Trudeau make? $200,000? $300,000? He's a small fry and he always will be in all likelihood. The list of these corrupt leaders goes on and on. Look at the Middle East. North Korea. So many places.
Sure, but none of that is relevant to succeed at investing in the American or Canadian stock market. US (and many Canadian) companies will continue to grow their profits and remain great investments, and that's what matters here in the end. My point is that corporations will do whatever it takes to meet their first priority: shareholders (there's a reason to why shareholders are treated better than clients and staff).

Regardless of recessions or changes on the economy, management is well paid to figure out and continue to grow the partnership that we are tagging along. It's not our job to figure out how companies wil remain profitable. It's not in our control anyway. Most people worry way too much about, and since it's unknown to them, they perceive it as a risk. It's not, and it doesn't matter - operating results does. That's also true for crappy companies that couldn't even do well in the recent bull market.

It's the business that counts in the end. Our job is to screen for quality companies and don't overpay. As long as companies continue to demonstrate decent growth on earnings and cash flow, that's what matters, because that's what drive stock price - and that will happen in any economy and regardless of the facts you mention above. US and Canada market doesn't have to come down like Japan just because Japan did. Recessions come and go, but prosperity continues and good quality companies continue to grow.

If a company that I invested on starts to post negative operating results (it has nothing to do with their stock price), I will sell and buy another one. Buffett always said, investing is simple, but difficult. It means it's not complex, it doesn't require to predict how the economy will evolve and it doesn't matter if China continues to grow or not. But it's difficult, because temperament and discipline is not easy with such mis-information and unrelevant information to succeed at investing. American and many Canadian companies just fix problems, they always figure out how to grow earnings and cash flow in any economy. Japan doesn't and many European companies struggle with that.

Succeeding at investing has nothing to do with the economy or who is in the office and everything to do with discipline, temperament, buying quality businesses at a sound price. That's also why indexing work overtime, because one is always dollar-cost-averaging a basket formed by the highest market cap companies (and why TSX is a poor benchmark to index on). A diversified portfolio following this approach will always succeed, it has since 1871 and it will continue to do so.


Rod
Build a comprehensive portfolio based on Investing and Trading strategies. Check out these threads and join the discussion:

Investing strategy based on dividend growth

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A case for continued buying, especially when fearful - https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2019/ ... -buy-high/
We cannot control where the market goes and when, but if you set up a program that automatically invests whether the market is going up down or sideways, it systematically avoids the noise.
Author comments on how dollar cost averaging and continuing to buy when prices are depressed actually boosts total return.
But as you can see, eventually, those who endured the risk were rewarded. Over the past twenty years, the S&P 500 returned 5.6% a year. The investor who DCA’d earned 7.9% a year.
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treva84 wrote:
Jan 11th, 2019 10:36 am
A case for continued buying, especially when fearful - https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2019/ ... -buy-high/

Author comments on how dollar cost averaging and continuing to buy when prices are depressed actually boosts total return.
Yeah I'm curious to see if our work group plans (DCA-ing twice a month) beat our DIY portfolio last year.. and I'm definitely not checking them as often :)
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freilona wrote:
Jan 11th, 2019 10:58 am
Yeah I'm curious to see if our work group plans (DCA-ing twice a month) beat our DIY portfolio last year.. and I'm definitely not checking them as often :)
Probably won't as most work group plans have high fees.
Illegitimi non carborundum
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The outlook for the global economy in 2019 has darkened.

International trade and investment have softened. Trade tensions remain elevated. Several large emerging markets underwent substantial financial pressures last year.

Against this challenging backdrop, growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to remain flat in 2019. The pickup in economies that rely heavily on commodity exports is likely to be much slower than hoped for. Growth in many other economies is anticipated to decelerate.

In addition, risks are growing that growth could be even weaker than anticipated, the World Bank’s January 2019 Global Economic Prospects reports.
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/immer ... al-economy
'The rich get richer and the poor get - children.'
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ukrainiandude wrote:
Jan 13th, 2019 11:48 am
The outlook for the global economy in 2019 has darkened.

International trade and investment have softened. Trade tensions remain elevated. Several large emerging markets underwent substantial financial pressures last year.

Against this challenging backdrop, growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to remain flat in 2019. The pickup in economies that rely heavily on commodity exports is likely to be much slower than hoped for. Growth in many other economies is anticipated to decelerate.

In addition, risks are growing that growth could be even weaker than anticipated, the World Bank’s January 2019 Global Economic Prospects reports.
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/immer ... al-economy
Awesome, more sales ahead. The time to backup the truck and load is coming.

Meanwhile, a few companies already increased dividends this year and posted some decent results. Earnings season start this week, let's see if we can buy more quality companies at lower price.


Rod
Build a comprehensive portfolio based on Investing and Trading strategies. Check out these threads and join the discussion:

Investing strategy based on dividend growth

Trading strategy based on Graham principles.
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rodbarc wrote:
Jan 13th, 2019 12:47 pm
Awesome, more sales ahead. The time to backup the truck and load is coming.

Meanwhile, a few companies already increased dividends this year and posted some decent results. Earnings season start this week, let's see if we can buy more quality companies at lower price.


Rod
“Anyone who believes in indefinite growth in anything physical, on a physically finite planet, is either mad or an economist.”


― Kenneth Boulding
'The rich get richer and the poor get - children.'
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ukrainiandude wrote:
Jan 13th, 2019 1:48 pm

“Anyone who believes in indefinite growth in anything physical, on a physically finite planet, is either mad or an economist.”


― Kenneth Boulding
(random chart)

-- Ukrainiandude

""I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."
- Warren Buffett"

--Ukraniandude's former signature

And regardless if there is finite growth of this planet or not, the world will still have businesses that change with the times. Similar to how Japanese diaper manufacturers target other countries and adult diapers, or how Western Union went from telegraph services to money transfering. Times change and companies adapt. I would rather own the companies that make the world go round and take profit from owning these companies.

EDIT: changed it because you realized the hypocrisy?
Last edited by xgbsSS on Jan 13th, 2019 9:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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