Real Estate

Short Seller calls out Van and GTA markets ...

  • Last Updated:
  • Mar 21st, 2017 7:22 am
Sr. Member
Dec 30, 1969
562 posts
302 upvotes
Toronto, ON
Ziggy007 wrote:
Mar 17th, 2017 3:08 pm
You can short REITs, but those are mainly commercial buildings.

I supposed you could short the banks, but mortgages are just a portion of their business.
Banks are wayyy too diversified and risky non-cmhc backed mortgages are only a miniscule portion of their portfolio.
Newbie
Aug 17, 2006
52 posts
15 upvotes
Toronto
Ziggy007 wrote:
Mar 17th, 2017 3:08 pm
You can short REITs, but those are mainly commercial buildings.

I supposed you could short the banks, but mortgages are just a portion of their business.
Best bet is to short the Canadian taxpayer, because in the end they will be the ones holding the bag (via CMHC "insurance").

Banks have very little skin in the game, hence their willingness to throw money at anyone who could breathe (they have since reigned it in a bit, seeing as the writing is on the wall in regards to a massive overvaluation of housing). Good ol' Johnny and Jill Canuck will bail everyone out, as usual.
Deal Addict
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Sep 8, 2007
4030 posts
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Way Out of GTA
Toredge wrote:
Mar 17th, 2017 4:27 pm
Best bet is to short the Canadian taxpayer, because in the end they will be the ones holding the bag (via CMHC "insurance").

Banks have very little skin in the game, hence their willingness to throw money at anyone who could breathe (they have since reigned it in a bit, seeing as the writing is on the wall in regards to a massive overvaluation of housing). Good ol' Johnny and Jill Canuck will bail everyone out, as usual.
Quick fix would be to require the banks to keep skin in the game and a decent portion on their books. So a portion that has to be segregated and not able to simply be offset thru selling synthetics on the other side. Once they had to hold the bag of a portion of the volume they are originating I think the banks behaviour towards credit expansion would change. Without that....to the moon.
Newbie
Sep 30, 2013
52 posts
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DELTA
lol @ OP

just stop waiting for the crash and pull the trigger bud, you're going to die of old age.
Deal Addict
Nov 26, 2005
3064 posts
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TGoyel wrote:
Mar 17th, 2017 8:21 pm
lol @ OP

just stop waiting for the crash and pull the trigger bud, you're going to die of old age.
or short the landers like him to 'hedge' RE if you want to own a house without paying rent somehow.
[OP]
Member
Jul 3, 2007
226 posts
125 upvotes
TGoyel wrote:
Mar 17th, 2017 8:21 pm
lol @ OP

just stop waiting for the crash and pull the trigger bud, you're going to die of old age.
sold my house last month ;)
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Oct 17, 2012
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joepipe wrote:
Mar 18th, 2017 9:16 am
sold my house last month ;)
& that explains the frustration & panic....Smiling Face With Open Mouth

you are on RFD ranting about this since last 3-4 months....Timing the market is not everybody's cup of tea.

But keep on trying....
Deal Addict
Dec 6, 2006
3406 posts
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Toronto
joepipe wrote:
Mar 18th, 2017 9:16 am
sold my house last month ;)
Yeah well, that explains the emergence of yet another RE doomer I guess, trying to grab onto any tiny things to hopefully push RE down, like getting a $2 price error in Deals forum.

Not sure how big does RFD effect on RE market, it's not as easy as an Amazon price error or OOStaples deal.
Hope you can succeed.
Deal Fanatic
Dec 27, 2013
5403 posts
1428 upvotes
Toronto
joepipe wrote:
Mar 17th, 2017 9:40 am


Has the balls to call the 2 biggest markets what they really are , a foreign money speculation and washing tool..... unlike most media and politicians out there....

He's up a massive amount of money on his Home Capital (Hometrust) short sell too.... with Equitable not far behind....puts his money where his mouth is
another bear post..
yawn.
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Apr 9, 2006
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GT-EH
joepipe wrote:
Mar 18th, 2017 9:16 am
sold my house last month ;)
I hope you timed it right... good luck! :lol:
I just like to collect things! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Behold, true glory. #PCMasterRace!
Deal Addict
May 31, 2007
3413 posts
395 upvotes
Why does it have to be about timing the market? Maybe Joepipe is selling for:

Risk management
Taking gains to explore other options
Using the equity for something more productive.. etc
Supplimenting retirement/downsizing
Seeking value and other experiences

There is an excellent saying by couch potato Dan Bortolotti, it goes like this: If you don't need to have more money, why take on more risk? I'm sure the sale of 1-3 million dollar bungalow in willow dale is more than enough for Joepipe to start his dream and live in California.
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Mar 31, 2008
8755 posts
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Toronto
Reverse mortgages are also big in Canada. More conservative LTV but 5.5% compounded interest is pretty high.
Deal Addict
Nov 26, 2004
1906 posts
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I think it takes a lot of guts like the OP to truly short the market. Depending on how much the OP's house sold for, the realtor fees, lawyer's fees (x 2), land transfer tax (buy back in to the market), as well as the moving cost x2 could add up quickly. And that's just monetary, it doesn't include the intangible cost such as the stress for searching for a rental to house the family, the move itself, and waiting for the crash to happen to justify the decision made.

Personally, I have seen a friend of mine "shorted" the housing market in Vancouver 5 years ago by selling the home he was living in. Now, it looks like he is priced out of owning in Vancouver.
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