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The Short-Term Trading Thread

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  • Feb 15th, 2019 4:33 pm
[OP]
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LongLiveRFD wrote:
Jun 21st, 2018 3:04 pm
Or the evil 5th wave up.
So trend is your friend explains BTFD?
Yep, expecting a ripper of a summer rally once we bottom this month. Structure seems incomplete to the upside.
I have 2748 as a strong pivot, the market just refuses to close below it.
Tomorrow/Monday should give us a tradeable low, if today wasn't it (we did bottom right at the .764 retracement)
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arvind84 wrote:
Jun 21st, 2018 5:22 pm
Yep, expecting a ripper of a summer rally once we bottom this month. Structure seems incomplete to the upside.
I have 2748 as a strong pivot, the market just refuses to close below it.
Tomorrow/Monday should give us a tradeable low, if today wasn't it (we did bottom right at the .764 retracement)
My guess is SPX 3100, at least. The '16 downturn was were smart money decided to ditch stocks that's deflating. Given other assets and FXs are unsafe and bubbled, they rotated to future proofing.

2016 SPX @ 2100
2018 retraced to 2600
Being the strongest mkts and USD surge, SPX must show it can do 3100.

Then silently, invisibly, a crisis came by and took her with a v-shape reversal...
[OP]
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LongLiveRFD wrote:
Jun 21st, 2018 5:41 pm
My guess is SPX 3100, at least. The '16 downturn was were smart money decided to ditch stocks that's deflating. Given other assets and FXs are unsafe and bubbled, they rotated to future proofing.

2016 SPX @ 2100
2018 retraced to 2600
Being the strongest mkts and USD surge, SPX must show it can do 3100.

Then silently, invisibly, a crisis came by and took her with a v-shape reversal...
Spot on, I have a similar target region 2950-3150. Bring on the wall of worry Winking Face
5th wave should show divergences on the weekly chart.
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rickytse0826 wrote:
Jun 21st, 2018 11:24 am
Good Morning, could someone help me to analysis NFLX, I short at $387 last week. Should I take the loss or wait until back to $390 level? Thanks!
Put a stop at 423 and relax. This money you already lost, don't lose more. Risk to the downside, NFLX crazy expensive and just riding a wave of FOX betting. DONT cover at 390. When it turns, decline will be spectacular. At least 330-340 will be tested.

EDIT: and, to enhance your chances with NFLX, sell naked puts. Starts with 1-1 (for each 100 lot NFLX sell 1 put), and scale to 2-1 when NFLX at support or puts reversal (higher low, higher high pattern on 15min).

I would do this: stop at ATH, do nothing if it drops below 400. As it approaches 50DMA (in the past, it was support), sell 30 delta option (it should be at least $15-17 per contract). Keep short shares until reversal in place (higher low). Then cover short stock and keep short put, maybe add more puts.
Last edited by dlhunter on Jun 22nd, 2018 9:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
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CL/BZ up on purported OPEC compliance agreement at "100%" vs current 147% (some countries pumping at < compliant capacity) => an increase of 600k bpd or theoretical 1mm bpd. All on #OOTT. BTW, these #'s were talked about all week.

Press conf was scheduled for 7am ET/1pm in Vienna, but these are never on time. Watch here if you are that bored. http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/multimedia/349.htm
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dlhunter wrote:
Jun 21st, 2018 9:14 pm
Put a stop at 423 and relax. This money you already lost, don't lose more. Risk to the downside, NFLX crazy expensive and just riding a wave of FOX betting. DONT cover at 390. When it turns, decline will be spectacular. At least 330-340 will be tested.
I am on board with trend reversal. Heavy trees fall pretty hard.
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MrMom wrote:
Jun 22nd, 2018 8:49 am
CL/BZ up on purported OPEC compliance agreement at "100%" vs current 147% (some countries pumping at < compliant capacity) => an increase of 600k bpd or theoretical 1mm bpd. All on #OOTT. BTW, these #'s were talked about all week.

Press conf was scheduled for 7am ET/1pm in Vienna, but these are never on time. Watch here if you are that bored. http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/multimedia/349.htm
shorted CL/AUG and will be buying CL/SEP - spread has widened to 70c and I bet it will come back to within 10c. Sold Sep 65P as well.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
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Jun 27, 2007
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arvind84 wrote:
Jun 21st, 2018 6:12 pm
Spot on, I have a similar target region 2950-3150. Bring on the wall of worry Winking Face
5th wave should show divergences on the weekly chart.
I don't agree on your expectation of melt up rally. What would be a catalyst? Who is going to lead? FAANGs, small caps already extended beyond reason. Financials rolling over, same with XLI, XLP, XLU, XLB.
XLE turning bearish, and XLK putting divergences on MACD weekly (higher high on chart, lower high on MACD, RSI).
The only leader is XLY, but this can't last or lead. Typical late bull cycle when all garbage floats higher.

Look at this: we are at trendline support, if we lose 2735, next target could be 200MA, again. And why would I buy it again?
Image
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
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TSLA melt down, nice. If it continues down, my deltas will turn positive.
FB below 200, good too. Short enough and no downside can hurt.

ES bounced off 20MA/15min - 2757. I am looking for gap fill - 2752-2753
Last edited by dlhunter on Jun 22nd, 2018 10:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
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Aug 17, 2008
1895 posts
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MrMom wrote:
Apr 10th, 2018 11:33 pm
"50 Cents" Not the original one, Curtis Jackson III nor former BCE head Michael Sabia. More for interest sake as I didn't know who this trader/PM was before this article came out in the FT.

Volatility trader ‘50 Cent’ predicts market turmoil to come
London-based fund manager Ruffer says assets are riskier than they look

Image
Jonathan Ruffer

Joe Rennison in New York 4 HOURS AGO Print this page1
The fund manager dubbed “50 Cent” for its bets on a surge in volatility has warned that February’s market turmoil was only a “frightening pre-earthquake tremor”, with worse to come within months.

Ruffer, a London-based money manager whose clients include the Church of England, says that measures of historic volatility dramatically underestimate the risk building in investors’ portfolios.

Ruffer attracted attention last year after spending an estimated $200m on derivatives contracts protecting its stock portfolio against a rise in volatility. Those contracts cost just half a dollar each and the buyer was nicknamed 50 Cent, after the US rapper, by traders until the FT revealed its identity.

The derivatives positions reduced but did not eliminate its losses over the first three months of the year, according to Ruffer’s quarterly investment review. The “not inconsiderable amount” made on its volatility trades was offset by losses in other investments. 

The positions came into their own when US stock markets fell from their highs earlier this year, as the S&P 500 suffered its worst one-day move in six years on February 5. Fears of a trade war between the US and China and concerns of heightened regulation of big technology companies have kept markets volatile since then.

Jonathan Ruffer, the asset manager’s co-founder, said in the quarterly review that the recent bout of turmoil was just a tremor.

“We are confident that the earthquake will happen, more confident than we have been that it will happen in months, not years, and as confident as one can be that our disposition of assets will, as in previous crises, serve to protect clients,” he said.

Assets that fund managers hold are more risky than traditional measures of volatility make them appear, Mr Ruffer said, precisely because managers have preferred low-volatility assets.

“A systematic preference for an asset class with low volatility ensures that, while buyers keep buying, volatility will stay attractively low,” he said. “This has meant that investors, either explicitly or implicitly, have come to believe the assets they own are safer than they actually are.” 

This is why volatility is a “central theme” in the investment manager’s thinking and asset managers will be the “centre of the problem”, he said, adding that Ruffer’s portfolios are positioned for “danger ahead”.
"Return of ‘50 Cent’ Prompts Remix of Notorious VIX Trade"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -vix-trade
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Man oh man, what a bloody day for Tech names. Spent whole day doing damage control and I have a feeling that selling off not done yet. UVXY still pretty strong.
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shorted ES 2767 earlier today. Bulls had so many chances to rally - obviously, no buyers left. Bring auto tariffs, Trumpster! And tax NFLX, AMZN, FB... want some blood.

edit: don't know what happened. going to cover at 2753. Dang, stopped at 55.25.
RUT/NQ red, SPX up 0.3%, and DOW strong - after 3 sessions of under performing. Like that! Have a super weekend, all ;-)
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
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Mar 22, 2010
1971 posts
324 upvotes
Big red candle on NQ daily breaking below mid BB.

Auto tariffs... obviously hurting TSLA (US auto) but I am holding AKS (US steel). Worst case scenario is them tanking at the same time lol.

For ES, I am watching this 4 hour movement for which higher low and higher high was made. I am thinking we are in tightening range so I am not making any full commitment yet until it breaks to either side...
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rapashoo wrote:
Jun 25th, 2018 8:11 am
For ES, I am watching this 4 hour movement for which higher low and higher high was made. I am thinking we are in tightening range so I am not making any full commitment yet until it breaks to either side...
stay thirsty, my friend.
ES 2733 and falling. Not picking up any and still have short from Friday 2767

edit: TSLA strong. Picked up a little stock at 332. Meh, sold 335. Market weak, expecting TSLA to break

edit2: ES now firmly below 2735. This is bearish, and I am expecting much lower prices. 2712 to start, and if 2700 doesn't hold, 2680 and 2660 (200DMA). But lets focus on near term

edit3: will cover ES 2718 (if it gets that low).
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃

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