Yep, expecting a ripper of a summer rally once we bottom this month. Structure seems incomplete to the upside.LongLiveRFD wrote: ↑Jun 21st, 2018 3:04 pmOr the evil 5th wave up.
So trend is your friend explains BTFD?
My guess is SPX 3100, at least. The '16 downturn was were smart money decided to ditch stocks that's deflating. Given other assets and FXs are unsafe and bubbled, they rotated to future proofing.arvind84 wrote: ↑Jun 21st, 2018 5:22 pmYep, expecting a ripper of a summer rally once we bottom this month. Structure seems incomplete to the upside.
I have 2748 as a strong pivot, the market just refuses to close below it.
Tomorrow/Monday should give us a tradeable low, if today wasn't it (we did bottom right at the .764 retracement)
Spot on, I have a similar target region 2950-3150. Bring on the wall of worryLongLiveRFD wrote: ↑Jun 21st, 2018 5:41 pmMy guess is SPX 3100, at least. The '16 downturn was were smart money decided to ditch stocks that's deflating. Given other assets and FXs are unsafe and bubbled, they rotated to future proofing.
2016 SPX @ 2100
2018 retraced to 2600
Being the strongest mkts and USD surge, SPX must show it can do 3100.
Then silently, invisibly, a crisis came by and took her with a v-shape reversal...
Put a stop at 423 and relax. This money you already lost, don't lose more. Risk to the downside, NFLX crazy expensive and just riding a wave of FOX betting. DONT cover at 390. When it turns, decline will be spectacular. At least 330-340 will be tested.rickytse0826 wrote: ↑Jun 21st, 2018 11:24 amGood Morning, could someone help me to analysis NFLX, I short at $387 last week. Should I take the loss or wait until back to $390 level? Thanks!
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat
I am on board with trend reversal. Heavy trees fall pretty hard.
shorted CL/AUG and will be buying CL/SEP - spread has widened to 70c and I bet it will come back to within 10c. Sold Sep 65P as well.MrMom wrote: ↑Jun 22nd, 2018 8:49 amCL/BZ up on purported OPEC compliance agreement at "100%" vs current 147% (some countries pumping at < compliant capacity) => an increase of 600k bpd or theoretical 1mm bpd. All on #OOTT. BTW, these #'s were talked about all week.
Press conf was scheduled for 7am ET/1pm in Vienna, but these are never on time. Watch here if you are that bored. http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/multimedia/349.htm
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat
I don't agree on your expectation of melt up rally. What would be a catalyst? Who is going to lead? FAANGs, small caps already extended beyond reason. Financials rolling over, same with XLI, XLP, XLU, XLB.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat
"Return of ‘50 Cent’ Prompts Remix of Notorious VIX Trade"MrMom wrote: ↑Apr 10th, 2018 11:33 pm"50 Cents" Not the original one, Curtis Jackson III nor former BCE head Michael Sabia. More for interest sake as I didn't know who this trader/PM was before this article came out in the FT.
Volatility trader ‘50 Cent’ predicts market turmoil to come
London-based fund manager Ruffer says assets are riskier than they look
Jonathan Ruffer
Joe Rennison in New York 4 HOURS AGO Print this page1
The fund manager dubbed “50 Cent” for its bets on a surge in volatility has warned that February’s market turmoil was only a “frightening pre-earthquake tremor”, with worse to come within months.
Ruffer, a London-based money manager whose clients include the Church of England, says that measures of historic volatility dramatically underestimate the risk building in investors’ portfolios.
Ruffer attracted attention last year after spending an estimated $200m on derivatives contracts protecting its stock portfolio against a rise in volatility. Those contracts cost just half a dollar each and the buyer was nicknamed 50 Cent, after the US rapper, by traders until the FT revealed its identity.
The derivatives positions reduced but did not eliminate its losses over the first three months of the year, according to Ruffer’s quarterly investment review. The “not inconsiderable amount” made on its volatility trades was offset by losses in other investments.
The positions came into their own when US stock markets fell from their highs earlier this year, as the S&P 500 suffered its worst one-day move in six years on February 5. Fears of a trade war between the US and China and concerns of heightened regulation of big technology companies have kept markets volatile since then.
Jonathan Ruffer, the asset manager’s co-founder, said in the quarterly review that the recent bout of turmoil was just a tremor.
“We are confident that the earthquake will happen, more confident than we have been that it will happen in months, not years, and as confident as one can be that our disposition of assets will, as in previous crises, serve to protect clients,” he said.
Assets that fund managers hold are more risky than traditional measures of volatility make them appear, Mr Ruffer said, precisely because managers have preferred low-volatility assets.
“A systematic preference for an asset class with low volatility ensures that, while buyers keep buying, volatility will stay attractively low,” he said. “This has meant that investors, either explicitly or implicitly, have come to believe the assets they own are safer than they actually are.”
This is why volatility is a “central theme” in the investment manager’s thinking and asset managers will be the “centre of the problem”, he said, adding that Ruffer’s portfolios are positioned for “danger ahead”.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat
stay thirsty, my friend.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat
