Investing

The Short-Term Trading Thread

  • Last Updated:
  • Oct 18th, 2019 8:34 am
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Oct 9, 2008
5481 posts
1980 upvotes
Thornhill
Not sure exactly what will be attributed to today's decline (for now at least) but the Stormy Daniels fiasco is starting to accelerate at a faster clip than previous imo...

Her suit asks the court to decide whether a contract requiring her silence is valid. The contract is anonymized - Stormy is PP and Trump is allegedly DD.

This leaves Trump's lawyers with two options:

1. ) Deny that he is DD. This means that Stormy is fully within her rights to release all of the photos and text messages that Trump denied the existence of. These were apparently damning enough to merit $130,000 in hush money from Trump's lawyer .

2.) Assert that Trump is DD and is entitled to all the protections in the contract. While this might prevent her from releasing the material, it will essentially confirm (a) that he and/or Michael Cohen committed campaign finance violations and (b) that they set up LLCs to conceal crimes.

60 Minutes interview with Stormy Daniels has been completed is reportedly ontrack for release.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/11/busi ... niels.html
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
1840 posts
1288 upvotes
Oakville
DOW leading down, NQ trying to hold the market up.
VIX strong, bonds up.

We got the expected pullback, now what?

No edge here, doing nothing.

CL breaking down according to plan, stop set to 61.80, free ride.
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
4633 posts
1344 upvotes
dlhunter wrote:
Mar 9th, 2018 2:38 pm
other than that, there is no short play. VIX falling, confirming bullish action. I bet Feb 27 high will not hold and we test 2800
then we could back trace to 2760-2750 to test downtrend line. Find support and off we go to 2825-2840 at least.
today's move down was expected and by the tempo of the action one could deduce this is bullish action. Bulls retreating slowly, but tactically to the levels above. I would throw one more number in the mix - 2775. This is 50% from Friday's move.

In a nutshell:
2775 - 50%
2750-2760 - test of gap.

Upside targets
2825
2872

But (and there is always a but): I still expect big correction after this rise.
At this point I am playing with bullish bias.

Bot ES 2785. Dow is very weak (BA/CAT/INTC/DWDP/UTX/HD), NAS very strong - again, investors keep betting on tech and it would be interesting to see how they meet their numbers in Apr (I bet they won't)
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
Deal Addict
Mar 22, 2010
2236 posts
429 upvotes
Pretty frustrating day for me. The bull move is too strong and it's not losing its steam. On the other hand, the ones that got pounded are not recovering.

Meant to exit by EOD but I may have to hold today's entries for few more days.

AMZN - bear call 1620/1630,
NFLX - bull call 330/335
OSTK - bought naked call 62 (not 62.5)
(Eyeing on Boeing)

still holding UVXY weekly calls for potential flash crash
Last edited by rapashoo on Mar 12th, 2018 2:05 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Oct 9, 2008
5481 posts
1980 upvotes
Thornhill
rapashoo wrote:
Mar 12th, 2018 2:05 pm
Pretty frustrating day for me. The bull move is too strong and it's not losing its steam. On the other hand, the ones that got pounded are not recovering.

Meant to exit by EOD but I may have to hold today's entries for few more days.

AMZN - bear call 1620/1630,
NFLX - bull call 330/335
OSTK - naked call 62.5
(Eyeing on Boeing)

still holding UVXY weekly calls for potential flash crash
Did you write the naked call on OSTK? If so when is expiry on it?
Deal Addict
Mar 22, 2010
2236 posts
429 upvotes
Jeenyus1 wrote:
Mar 12th, 2018 2:09 pm
Did you write the naked call on OSTK? If so when is expiry on it?
no I bought the call. 62 exp this Friday. (earning bet, I think it's 50/50 shot)
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
4633 posts
1344 upvotes
exited ES @2790
Bonds on the move, my IC working nice. VIX getting bid, maybe it could touch 17 again.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
Newbie
Sep 1, 2007
41 posts
14 upvotes
Toronto
Awesome thread.
CPI reading out 8:30 tomorrow.
Any strategy for that play?
Member
Dec 23, 2005
235 posts
33 upvotes
Scarborough
CPI reading out 8:30 tomorrow.
Any strategy for that play?
[/quote]

I don't know about others but I have no strategy for CPI numbers, to me lot could happen from now till 8:30 am tomorrow. Talking about Emini 500 futures.
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
4633 posts
1344 upvotes
got back in @2786.5

testing down trend line for today. 2791 should see higher prices

edit: 3:30 - right at 2791. cannot clear, we can go either way
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
4633 posts
1344 upvotes
2chaos2 wrote:
Mar 12th, 2018 2:49 pm
Awesome thread.
CPI reading out 8:30 tomorrow.
Any strategy for that play?
it's binary event. CPI can exceed expectation, negating Friday's muted wage growth, or be in line or worse, putting inflation fears to rest.
you'll have to pick a side and then think about your red lines to be bearish or bullish

personally, my barometer would be Bonds. If they rally, then investors bet there would be 3 or less hikes this year.
and, stocks would follow bonds, just like they did on Friday. One caveat: Bonds can also be considered safety trade.

watch 3 things: VIX, Bonds and SPX. If they all confirm the move in SPX, then assume bias in the direction of the move.

1. Bonds up, Stocks up, VIX down - easy path, CPI in line, bullish
2. Bonds up, Stocks down, VIX up - something unexpected, bearish
3. Bonds up, Stocks up, VIX up - unsustainable, bearish
4. Bonds down, Stocks down, VIX up - CPI exceeded, bearish
5. Bonds down, Stocks up, VIX down - because they like stocks, bullish
6. Bonds down, Stocks up, VIX up - unsustainable, bearish
7. Bonds down, Stocks down, VIX down - rare, bullish
8. Bonds up, Stocks down, VIX down - unlikely, bullish
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
Newbie
Sep 1, 2007
41 posts
14 upvotes
Toronto
dlhunter wrote:
Mar 12th, 2018 4:33 pm
it's binary event. CPI can exceed expectation, negating Friday's muted wage growth, or be in line or worse, putting inflation fears to rest.
you'll have to pick a side and then think about your red lines to be bearish or bullish

personally, my barometer would be Bonds. If they rally, then investors bet there would be 3 or less hikes this year.
and, stocks would follow bonds, just like they did on Friday. One caveat: Bonds can also be considered safety trade.

watch 3 things: VIX, Bonds and SPX. If they all confirm the move in SPX, then assume bias in the direction of the move.

1. Bonds up, Stocks up, VIX down - easy path, CPI in line, bullish
2. Bonds up, Stocks down, VIX up - something unexpected, bearish
3. Bonds up, Stocks up, VIX up - unsustainable, bearish
4. Bonds down, Stocks down, VIX up - CPI exceeded, bearish
5. Bonds down, Stocks up, VIX down - because they like stocks, bullish
6. Bonds down, Stocks up, VIX up - unsustainable, bearish
7. Bonds down, Stocks down, VIX down - rare, bullish
8. Bonds up, Stocks down, VIX down - unlikely, bullish
Much appreciated dlhunter for your valuable insight.
I have purchased some monthly April SPY 275p to hedge my portfolio last week and it's not doing so well haha.
Hopefully, there is some surprise tomorrow to breakeven the trade.

Are there any free websited like stockchart that offer 60/30 mins charts?
Any preferences on charts overlays/indicators to look for short/long term trends?
Much appreciated RFDs OP =)
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
1840 posts
1288 upvotes
Oakville
2chaos2 wrote:
Mar 12th, 2018 8:38 pm
Much appreciated dlhunter for your valuable insight.
I have purchased some monthly April SPY 275p to hedge my portfolio last week and it's not doing so well haha.
Hopefully, there is some surprise tomorrow to breakeven the trade.

Are there any free websited like stockchart that offer 60/30 mins charts?
Any preferences on charts overlays/indicators to look for short/long term trends?
Much appreciated RFDs OP =)
You can use investing.com or tradingview.com for free 60/30min charts (tradingview limits you to 3 indicators on a chart in the free version)

Regarding indicators, here's a copy of The Visual Investor by John Murphy, look at section 2: http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/584473362.pdf
Newbie
Sep 1, 2007
41 posts
14 upvotes
Toronto
arvind84 wrote:
Mar 12th, 2018 10:03 pm
You can use investing.com or tradingview.com for free 60/30min charts (tradingview limits you to 3 indicators on a chart in the free version)

Regarding indicators, here's a copy of The Visual Investor by John Murphy, look at section 2: http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/584473362.pdf
Thanks arvind84.
Deal Addict
Mar 22, 2010
2236 posts
429 upvotes
CPI 0.2% as expected, looks like market's liking it.

Top