Investing

The Short-Term Trading Thread

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  • Mar 20th, 2024 3:41 pm
Deal Guru
Feb 9, 2009
12381 posts
11307 upvotes
angryaudifanatic wrote: Buffett should have long invested with MSFT and with his good friend Gates.

He messed up with IBM and now AAPL. If he had kept with MSFT he would have had a much better ride.
THats the head scratcher... his best friend is Gates and he didnt invest in MSFT? Maybe he felt it would be a conflict of interest somewhat since they are best friends.
Last edited by Sanyo on Jan 2nd, 2019 10:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Deal Addict
Nov 10, 2018
4735 posts
5331 upvotes
Sanyo wrote: THats the head scratcher... his best friend is Gates and he didnt invest in MSFT? Maybe he felt it would be a conflict of interest somewhat since they are best friends..
Yes, that is what Buffett said once in an interview.
For legal topics and discussions, the opinion, guidance, and thoughts provided are my own and are not considered to be legal advice, in any manner.
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
3026 posts
2227 upvotes
Calgary
Good morning!
Strange overnight action...we sold off post-AAPL and just sat there all night
Higher low so far vs yesterday.
Bears are on the offensive but must do much more (under ONL and 2450 for starters)
We've knocked on 2520 so many times now, doubt it holds again -> squeeze potential
Waiting patiently for a setup

Edit: Long ES 2484, stop 2480, target 2492
Edit2: Stop tightened 2482
Edit3: Out 2489(+5), stalling
Edit4: Let's see if we can get a pullback to 2475
Edit5: Long CL 47.21, stop 47
Edit6: Out at 47.1(-0.11). Will try again around 46.5
Edit7: Long ES 2482
Edit8: Got the pullback, hold here and we should head higher, key time
Edit9: Added ES 2477, stop 75.5 on the whole lot
Edit10: Removed stop, watching
Edit11: Out 2473 (-7)
Last edited by margincall on Jan 3rd, 2019 10:03 am, edited 6 times in total.
Deal Addict
Nov 10, 2018
4735 posts
5331 upvotes
margincall wrote: Good morning!
Strange overnight action...we sold off post-AAPL and just sat there all night
Higher low so far vs yesterday.
Bears are on the offensive but must do much more (under ONL and 2450 for starters)
We've knocked on 2520 so many times now, doubt it holds again -> squeeze potential
Waiting patiently for a setup

Edit: Long ES 2484, stop 2480, target 2492
Edit2: Stop tightened 2482
Edit3: Out 2489(+5), stalling
Edit : Let's see if we can get a pullback to 2475
Futures now all look sane.

Reiterating my same forecast as yesterday.

Starting off the trading day red and slowly climbing green.

No big deal.
For legal topics and discussions, the opinion, guidance, and thoughts provided are my own and are not considered to be legal advice, in any manner.
Deal Fanatic
Jun 27, 2007
5507 posts
1956 upvotes
margincall wrote: Good morning!
Strange overnight action...we sold off post-AAPL and just sat there all night
Higher low so far vs yesterday.
Bears are on the offensive but must do much more (under ONL and 2450 for starters)
We've knocked on 2520 so many times now, doubt it holds again -> squeeze potential
Waiting patiently for a setup
no fear in AAPL. just look at puts... they are dumping puts like it's dirt. 140 is support, but we just put lower low.
I don't see much support until 125.
AAPL will hold around 145 till the earnings, then will be huge dump based on miss/guidance
(why I say miss? didn't AAPL pre-announce? they did, but Cook said they don't have Dec sales numbers in yet. And those could be ugly)
In a nutshell, AAPL expects 84B sales, but what if the number comes in at 78B? And guide much lower for Q2?

p.s. out of ES 2477

edit: dang, they got me. Tried to go back in short at 75.5, but no luck

edit: sold AAPL Feb 155C for 3.6 and 135P for 4.9
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
In Fed We Trust - Make ES Limit Down Great Again!
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
3026 posts
2227 upvotes
Calgary
Shorted 2469, stop 2475, half size
Ok bears show us what you've got

Edit: Stop moved to 2469. Under 2450 and we may have something
Edit2: Covered 2660. Double bottom vs yesterday, bounce should fail. will try to reshort 2668-2670

So far all we had is a stop run under yesterday's low, bears must keep pushing or it's going to rip hard the other way

Edit3: Long ES 2459, stop LOD
Edit4: Long CL 46.05, stop LOD
Edit5: Sold ES 2472, CL 46.75
Last edited by margincall on Jan 3rd, 2019 1:10 pm, edited 6 times in total.
Deal Addict
Nov 10, 2018
4735 posts
5331 upvotes
As long as this point isn't breached, no one should really care.
Untitled.png
For legal topics and discussions, the opinion, guidance, and thoughts provided are my own and are not considered to be legal advice, in any manner.
Deal Fanatic
Jun 27, 2007
5507 posts
1956 upvotes
Shorted ES 2471
Above 75 and I will re-evaluate. I think it's dead cat bounce... hard market to trade. But now we must trade below 47. Target 2440

p.s. Dallas FED - central bank should pause hiking rates. duh

edit: watching for now. short squeeze on. If the FED must pause, what does it say about economy prospects?

edit: covered ES 2471 and went long, small size. TICKs never went below -500, bullish

edit: now, if we trade above 90, gap fill is next - 2510.
So the FED is not going to hike rates, and markets cheered. Inline with still bullish conditions (although I was a bit shaken by the action last two days). Nevertheless, action speaks louder - 2450-2460 level being rejected. AAPL was a surprise that brought latest weakness. If not for AAPL, we would be trading 2530+ now

edit: and OUT 75. Dang, too much volatility and indecision. Staying aside
my crystal ball got muddy, need to clean up

edit: break of 2470 - and we go lower, above 2480 - higher. Last two candles same bodies, indecision.

edit: knock-knock! who is there? PPT! Run for cover!

edit: when it looked like we are ripping higher, they pulled the carpet right under. Glad I am out, no point to chop ones arm.
Heck, it's not clear where we are headed even now. TICKS hit new lows, but price has not come close.
Bonds are ripping, yet VIX subdued. Something is not right, Bonds are way overbought
Last edited by dlhunter on Jan 3rd, 2019 1:26 pm, edited 8 times in total.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
In Fed We Trust - Make ES Limit Down Great Again!
Deal Addict
Mar 22, 2010
4133 posts
2172 upvotes
/NQ 6300 is key level IMO. 15min/1hour still lower high so bearish trend intact as of yet. only 2 min and 5 min printing HL/HH - could be dead cat bounce. Let's see.
Deal Addict
Nov 10, 2018
4735 posts
5331 upvotes
rapashoo wrote: /NQ 6300 is key resistance IMO. 5min/15min/1hour still lower high so bearish trend intact as of yet. only 2 min printing HL/HH - could be dead cat bounce. Let's see.
A lot of people talk about this dead cat bounce, but it's rare for people to talk about how quick that dead cat bounces. What is very telling to me is how quickly the US markets bounced after the AAPL news. It bodes well and is a sign, to me, of the bulls at play here and adds to my optimism.
For legal topics and discussions, the opinion, guidance, and thoughts provided are my own and are not considered to be legal advice, in any manner.
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
3026 posts
2227 upvotes
Calgary
Had to step out for a bit, wow what a battle today!
VIX not interested in this selloff, long ES again 2459, stop 2456
Held .786 retracement

Edit: Stop moved to entry
Edit2: 2459 low but no fill, got lucky
Edit3: Out 2469 (+10)
Edit4: Bidding NQ @ 6169
Edit5: Nope, bounced. Canceled bid.

What a complete mess...
hourly candles today - big red bear, bullish engulfing, doji, bearish engulfing. Market is directionless
Last edited by margincall on Jan 3rd, 2019 2:10 pm, edited 7 times in total.
Deal Addict
Nov 10, 2018
4735 posts
5331 upvotes
margincall wrote: Had to step out for a bit, wow what a battle today!
VIX not interested in this selloff, long ES again 2459, stop 2456
Held .786 retracement
Glad that VIX is still a hair under 25, but disheartened to see the bulls start to lose steam this PM.
For legal topics and discussions, the opinion, guidance, and thoughts provided are my own and are not considered to be legal advice, in any manner.
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
3026 posts
2227 upvotes
Calgary
Gold update: Poking into the resistance box on declining volume and overbought techs, pullback is coming

Capture.PNG
Last edited by margincall on Jan 3rd, 2019 3:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
3026 posts
2227 upvotes
Calgary
Long NQ 6175, stop 6160

Edit: Stop moved up to 6170, order to exit at 6225
Edit2: Out 6185, falling apart again
Edit3: Long RTY 1330.1, stop 1326.4
Edit4: Long again 1331.5, stop 1325.3
Last edited by margincall on Jan 3rd, 2019 9:01 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Deal Fanatic
Oct 22, 2014
5443 posts
3920 upvotes
Richmond Hill
margincall wrote: hourly candles today - big red bear, bullish engulfing, doji, bearish engulfing. Market is directionless
With all major indices -2.5% to -3% today, I believe that is direction down.
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
3026 posts
2227 upvotes
Calgary
Elfwood wrote: With all major indices -2.5% to -3% today, I believe that is direction down.
LOL yes, that post referred to intraday action since the open
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
3026 posts
2227 upvotes
Calgary
Good morning!
Futures bounced overnight as expected and we're back to the chop zone of death 2485-2520
CL breaking out above 48 -> target is 50.5-53 if it can close above 47.8
A bunch of catalysts today:
0830 - NFP
1015 - The Three Stooges
1100 - Crude Oil Inventories

ST we should get a pullback, it's the 11th consecutive green hourly candle in progress.
Last edited by margincall on Jan 4th, 2019 8:14 am, edited 2 times in total.
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
10990 posts
13540 upvotes
@margincall you may want to reschedule your morning. I see EIA release at 11am. GL
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
3026 posts
2227 upvotes
Calgary
MrMom wrote: @margincall you may want to reschedule your morning. I see EIA release at 11am. GL
Thank you :) Forgot about the delayed release today.

Edit: Long CL 47.75

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