Investing

The Short-Term Trading Thread

  • Last Updated:
  • Jan 21st, 2019 11:01 am
Sr. Member
Nov 10, 2018
812 posts
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Wow, futures are sustained 'green'. That's....not what I expected. I thought a minor pull back in the -0.3% was in order.

This seems to me a real possibility of a minor bull run, versus a dead flop.
For legal topics and discussions, the opinion, guidance, and thoughts provided are my own and are not considered to be legal advice, in any manner.
[OP]
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georvu wrote:
Jan 7th, 2019 8:45 pm
Nooooo, not THE GARTMAN!!
Been waiting for my favourite indicator Winking Face

NYMO in nosebleed territory. Waiting on a few more indicators to line up before shorting

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Last edited by margincall on Jan 7th, 2019 9:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Canada, Eh!!
So one of the talking heads on tv mentioned that this looks like crash, rally, crash revisit, rally new high seen several times before, think most recent being 2015-2016 [was busy at time so may have gotten dates wrong].

Anyways he expects mkt to head higher for a bit [S&P 2600-2660] and then within 1-2 months revisit Dec low and then head higher.

All those technically inclined... does that make any sense?

Wonder how tariffs and Fed play into this!!

***********************************************

Whatever mkt gives us gonna continue the SQQQ/TQQQ trades sort of like @alexcalvado with S&P hedged :)

Presently only holding SQQQ as sold TQQQ today.
[OP]
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Nov 6, 2015
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georvu wrote:
Jan 7th, 2019 9:05 pm
So one of the talking heads on tv mentioned that this looks like crash, rally, crash revisit, rally new high seen several times before, think most recent being 2015-2016 [was busy at time so may have gotten dates wrong].

Anyways he expects mkt to head higher for a bit [S&P 2600-2660] and then within 1-2 months revisit Dec low and then head higher.

All those technically inclined... does that make any sense?
That would be something like this?

Capture.PNG

That seems to be the consensus view atm. Definitely a possibility, all depends on if we hold support on the next pullback.
The market can take infinite paths to the same ultimate target, so I find it easier to focus on support and resistance levels.

For now, bulls are in control as long as above 2520, how far it stretches is anyone's guess lol
My crystal ball says: This move will top out below 2600 (ideally 2580) and we will head back to 2480-2450, reassess there
[OP]
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Nov 6, 2015
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What a wild couple of months in NG, and we're back where we started.
A decent base has formed over the last week, looking for gap fill ~3.30 next

Capture.PNG

@MrMom Wish I had held onto that 4.85 short :facepalm:
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margincall wrote:
Jan 7th, 2019 9:37 pm
What a wild couple of months in NG, and we're back where we started.
A decent base has formed over the last week, looking for gap fill ~3.30 next

@MrMom Wish I had held onto that 4.85 short :facepalm:
No kidding. But you had to accept A LOT of price volatility. It's one thing to be put in a situation like that due to OF, it's another when you choose to step into it.
Take a look at the 10 year history/chart. https://invst.ly/9pwsf That was a rare market squeeze because the short seller blew up and the ensuing clean up caused the NG spike.

IMO, NG doesn't go back there in the ST. We just had to blow off, https://invst.ly/9pwvf

https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-booming ... 1545906601

In Booming Oil Field, Natural Gas Can Be Free
Permian Basin producers have had to give away their gas as pipeline bottlenecks worsen

American energy companies have spent billions of dollars in the past decade exploring for natural gas. But in parts of Texas and New Mexico, there is now so much of it that it is sometimes worthless. Some companies have even had to pay buyers to take it away.

Shale drillers in the Permian Basin are producing vast amounts of gas as a byproduct of prospecting for oil. But there aren’t enough pipelines to take all the gas to market, causing some of it to become landlocked, and sending local prices into free fall.

Gas prices in parts of the prolific region hovered near zero last month and some trades went negative, to as low as a negative 25 cents per million British thermal units, according to S&P Global Platts. The price-reporting agency said it was the first time on record that gas traded for less than zero at the Waha hub in West Texas. While prices have since ticked up, averaging $1.68 per million British thermal units for the four weeks through Dec. 21, that is still 40% of the $4.20 per million British thermal units that gas has fetched in that time at the main U.S. benchmark, Henry Hub in Louisiana.

Energy companies say last month’s zero pricing could be a sign of things to come in the Permian area next year, as more oil pipelines get built and companies ramping up production of crude, a far more lucrative product, get stuck with more gas that has nowhere to go. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates December gas production will top 12 billion cubic feet a day in the region, up about 34% from a year earlier.

“You’ll see things get worse and worse and worse as oil production grows and gas production grows alongside it,” said J.R. Weston, an analyst for Raymond James & Associates Inc.

The situation in the Permian underscores just how plentiful natural gas has become in the U.S. since companies using hydraulic-fracturing and horizontal-drilling techniques began unlocking vast amounts of it from shale-rock formations. Natural gas now helps generate about one-third of U.S. electricity, and it has become a valuable export commodity as ships take liquefied natural gas to Asia and Europe. Still, Henry Hub prices have hovered below $5 a million British thermal units for almost all of the past decade, according to EIA data.

For those fortunate enough to be near the Permian, getting gas for nothing has been a boon.

Vistra Energy Corp. —an electricity company with a power plant in Odessa, Texas, in the heart of the Permian—got paid last month to take gas.

“We were buying from intermediaries that I think were caught with gas, and they needed to get rid of it,” Vistra Chief Executive Curt Morgan said. “As long as we’re getting a discount for the gas, our plant is in the money.”

Apache Corp. , which is developing a new gas field in the Permian, was among the producers that had to sell gas for pennies on the dollar. The company said it had protected itself using financial hedges, which can act as a form of insurance when prices drop.

“That insulated us from the pricing dislocation that occurred around the beginning of December,” an Apache spokesman said.

One option for Permian operators with too much gas is to light it on fire, a practice known as flaring. Flaring levels reached record highs in the Permian last quarter, when companies burned an average of 407 million cubic feet a day, according to analysis of public data compiled by Rystad Energy, an energy consulting firm.

That has serious environmental consequences. The resulting greenhouse-gas emissions are equivalent to the daily exhaust emitted by about 2.7 million cars, according to estimates from the World Bank and Environmental Protection Agency.

Texas has thus far allowed companies to flare freely. As of the end of November, state regulators hadn't denied a single permit request in more than five years, records show. But flaring isn’t always an option. Companies might not have the needed equipment set up in areas affected by pipeline outages. They also might have to pay landowners royalty payments for the gas they burn. And flaring gas on the spot means drillers miss out on more valuable products that come out of the ground with it, such as ethane, propane and butane, which are often processed out later.

Technically, the Permian has more than enough pipeline capacity to accommodate all the gas being produced. But some of those pipes lead to Mexico, where demand hasn’t grown as quickly as anticipated.

At least one new pipeline is expected to begin operating late next year, which should help ease bottlenecks. Built by Kinder Morgan Inc., it will carry gas from the Permian to the refining-and-export complex near Corpus Christi, Texas.

But drillers have been more reluctant to commit to space on new natural-gas pipelines than they have on new oil pipelines. Pipeline companies generally want to secure such commitments before investing in new conduits.

“Producers are going to be first interested in solving their crude-oil needs,” said Jeff Jorgensen, who leads energy-infrastructure research at Brookfield Asset Management Inc., which manages about $330 billion. “Signing up for a natural-gas pipeline is like going to the gym and stretching. You’re there to lift weights.”
Images
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  • NatGas2.JPG
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if trading NG isn't gambling I don't know what is.

trade some NG then glued to the weather channel.
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Sep 19, 2004
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margincall wrote:
Jan 8th, 2019 8:27 am
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LOL, sure, after a horrible 2018 due to his China tariff and Fed raising rates, which he conviently ignores

but wow, markets are now overbought after that Dow -660 pts drop (and +750 pts pop)
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jerryhung wrote:
Jan 8th, 2019 8:38 am

but wow, markets are now overbought after that Dow -660 pts drop (and +750 pts pop)
????
For legal topics and discussions, the opinion, guidance, and thoughts provided are my own and are not considered to be legal advice, in any manner.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
1460 posts
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Oakville
Good morning!
The grind up continues...ES bull train continues to make divergent highs as it rides 1HR 20EMA
Expecting a turn today/tomorrow, perhaps Fed minutes will be a catalyst?
Early warning sign of reversal is a break below 2550 upper support, confirmation under 2525
Watching VIX very closely today, must hold 20

Same story in CL, looking to short a divergent new high ~50

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Edit: Short ES 2574, stop HOD
Edit2: Stop tightened to 2575.25
Edit3: Order in to cover 2561 - Filled @ 10:18 (+13)
Edit4: Short CL 49.25, stop HOD
Edit5: Short ES 2563.5, half size
Edit6: Finger on the trigger, VIX not confirming new lows yet
Edit7: Covered 2557 (+6.5), will reshort higher
Edit8: Stop set to 2.96 on NG longs
Edit9: Covered CL short 49.06
Edit10: Long NQ 6472 for a bounce
Edit11: Stop set to LOD, NQ needs to get back over 6500
Edit12: Order to exit at 6523 - Out 6518(+46), close enough
Edit13: Gotta run, as long as LODs hold, we should get a retest of highs. GL all
Deal Addict
Feb 4, 2015
3928 posts
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Canada, Eh!!
Bought OTM Puts on FB and NFLX for play on earnings.

FB because hate mgmt... emotion might cause loss :( for me on this one but gonna try :)
NFLX because of runup and pending DIS and AAPL streaming [no current threat to NFLX however chatter could bring it down]

Bought OTM Calls on MSFT

Bought more SQQQ

Yes, MSFT trades not consistent with other trades... expecting good results from MSFT.
Sr. Member
Nov 10, 2018
812 posts
520 upvotes
Trump did well tonight. Futures tracking green. VIX continue to recede.

Great week so far!
For legal topics and discussions, the opinion, guidance, and thoughts provided are my own and are not considered to be legal advice, in any manner.
Deal Addict
Feb 4, 2015
3928 posts
1048 upvotes
Canada, Eh!!
angryaudifanatic wrote:
Jan 8th, 2019 10:10 pm
Trump did well tonight. Futures tracking green. VIX continue to recede.

Great week so far!
He should read from a script more often!!

Anyone else notice the breathing sounds every few seconds?

First heard it and then saw how his nostrils flared... probably age related?

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