Investing

The Short-Term Trading Thread

  • Last Updated:
  • Jan 15th, 2019 4:22 pm
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
1439 posts
1003 upvotes
Oakville
CL hit posted upside targets and reversed
Now at support, a sustained break of 51.5 targets 48
Above 53.5 -> 56
Note that CL and equities have been trading together since they both bottomed on Christmas Eve.

Capture.PNG

Edit: Poke below and reversal, long CL 51.40, stop 51.18. Long ES 2580, stop LOD
Edit2: Tightened up stops CL 51.41, ES 2580.25. Freebie Friday
Edit3: Guess nothing's free, still holding long ES
Edit4: CL popping, expect ES to follow. HL setup, 2577 stop
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
1439 posts
1003 upvotes
Oakville
Bulls have lit the fuse, just need to capitalize
Tightened stops ES 2581, CL 51.58

Edit: Stopped out CL, re-long 51.75, stop 51.50. They came just to get me Smiling Face With Horns
Edit2: Out ES 2591(+11), CL at BE. Friday afternoons are usually triangles designed to chop up both sides, best to avoid.

Have a great weekend all!
Deal Addict
Aug 17, 2008
1741 posts
902 upvotes
Just looked at NG. WTH? A little cold weather.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
1439 posts
1003 upvotes
Oakville
MrMom wrote:
Jan 13th, 2019 4:53 pm
Just looked at NG. WTH? A little cold weather.
margincall wrote:
Jan 7th, 2019 9:37 pm
What a wild couple of months in NG, and we're back where we started.
A decent base has formed over the last week, looking for gap fill ~3.30 next
Target hit
Deal Addict
Aug 17, 2008
1741 posts
902 upvotes
MrMom wrote:
Dec 7th, 2018 8:58 am
The data set is notoriously unreliable and subject to wild swings. Have a look at this months release. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-q ... 2&indgeo=0

Job growth in Que I believe, 5.7K new jobs in Ont cannabis I believe. MEG in Alberta just averted layoffs, so the Alberta number looks suspect. Oshawa going down, oil industry prospects with quotas lower for now. Maybe not today, but you'll get a shot at 1.34 again.
Follow up to post 2758, @margincall & @georvu re: USDCAD. Financial markets have recovered for now, but everyone knows 2900 jobs+ are leaving Oshawa.

"In the mystery of Canada's missing wages, all clues lead to Alberta" https://business.financialpost.com/news ... to-alberta

Markets are pricing out FOMC hikes in 2019 (ED crv) for now and at the least, pushing out BOC hikes. Powell gets another at bat tomorrow and Cdn CPI on Friday. Think we'll get another crack at going long USDCAD.
Images
  • 11Jan19 Cda Curve.JPG
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
1439 posts
1003 upvotes
Oakville
Good morning!
Gap down but holding above 2670, still in the range.
January OPEX week seasonality favours bears

Image

CL resetting after a big run, looking for a long entry for the next leg up as long as 49.5 holds.
Edit: 1HR 20 EMA rejection on CL, setting buy stop @ 51.29, 50c stop if filled.
Edit2: Filled, stop 50.70
Edit3: Long NQ 6538, stop LOD. Will tighten up once above 6560
Edit4: Looking good so far, tightened stops NQ 6539, CL 51.1

cldjan14.PNG
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
4139 posts
996 upvotes
Hola-Hola!
I am back and looking at market that just doesn't want to break.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
1439 posts
1003 upvotes
Oakville
dlhunter wrote:
Jan 14th, 2019 10:55 am
Hola-Hola!
I am back and looking at market that just doesn't want to break.
Welcome back Smiling Face With Open Mouth

Edit: Closed NQ longs @ 6564(+26). Not liking RTY weakness
Edit2: Out of CL at 51.35, will look for a better entry
Edit3: Back in CL 51.40, stop 51.15
Edit4: Whipsaw city...still in CL, hard stop 51.03. Long RTY 1435, stop LOD
Edit5: RTY stop moved up 1435.1
Edit6: Out RTY 1342.5 (+7.5)
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
4139 posts
996 upvotes
Sold pretty much all longs I bought during Xmas sale
SPYG 33.5..33.6
FDX (40%) at 172
UTX 111

Could be early and market might still run above 2600 (2612-2620) before it gives up a ghost. But I might not be around to trigger sale.
My opinion is we should retest the lows. Not necessary break below (but it's likely), similar to Feb 2018 action. There is a lot of supply above 2600, and companies are missing on revenues left and right. So this could end up fundamental selling in addition to technical.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
Deal Addict
Mar 22, 2010
1949 posts
323 upvotes
Ugh. JPM earnings miss. Brexit Vote result today.
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
4139 posts
996 upvotes
rapashoo wrote:
Jan 15th, 2019 8:02 am
Ugh. JPM earnings miss. Brexit Vote result today.
and yet, buyers show up on every dip, which means action to the upside is not over yet.
I don't think it will last, but short term it's up and away.

(if I remember correctly, bounce from the lows normally lasts 4-6 weeks - meaning the high of this move up should arrive around Jan 24-Feb7 time frame)
2600 is the level bulls want to take out, but it's really just a number, real resistance slightly above - so going a little above 2600 DOESN'T mean it's all good to the upside.
head fake, this is what I think will happen - suck in as many bulls as possible, then pull the rug.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
Deal Addict
Mar 22, 2010
1949 posts
323 upvotes
dlhunter wrote:
Jan 15th, 2019 9:49 am
head fake, this is what I think will happen - suck in as many bulls as possible, then pull the rug.
Head fake, that would be the signal. Agreed.
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
4139 posts
996 upvotes
rapashoo wrote:
Jan 15th, 2019 9:50 am
Head fake, that would be the signal. Agreed.
RUT almost UNCH. So this one I would buy to play the upside. Not Nasdaq

edit: long RTY 1436.6 - lets see how high they can go. Stop to 1436.3 - and out.

edit: look at that beautiful rounded top on all indices (1-2 hours chart).

edit: small/med caps UNCH. Dow is the weakest among big 3
Last edited by dlhunter on Jan 15th, 2019 10:15 am, edited 2 times in total.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃

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