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The Short-Term Trading Thread

  • Last Updated:
  • Oct 18th, 2019 8:34 am
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
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all4one4u wrote:
Jan 18th, 2019 5:37 pm
Btw.. i think option (2) will likely going to happen next.
this has been my presumption, expecting the test of 2100-2200 - that's where the rally started. 2340-2350 is below any meaningful retracement, they normally do 100%
then big rally starts that could last a year - still, no new highs should be posted, just a mirrow image of 2018. This could be ignited by China trade deal.
But we need to see inverted yeild curve first, followed by rally, then lights out
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
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Jun 28, 2016
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dlhunter wrote:
Jan 20th, 2019 11:29 pm
this has been my presumption, expecting the test of 2100-2200 - that's where the rally started. 2340-2350 is below any meaningful retracement, they normally do 100%
then big rally starts that could last a year - still, no new highs should be posted, just a mirrow image of 2018. This could be ignited by China trade deal.
This seems pretty close to what everyone in the trading community is expecting (bounce off the 200 day moving average or somewhere close to it and then down for a retest of the Dec bottom). There's some disagreement about whether that bottom holds, but, otherwise, this prediction is remarkably universal among the traders I follow. Just how many people expect it and are already starting to short is what concerns me.
dlhunter wrote:
Jan 20th, 2019 11:29 pm
But we need to see inverted yeild curve first, followed by rally, then lights out
I assume you're expecting this during the next leg up and not before we retest Dec lows. If so, sounds reasonable to me.
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Mar 22, 2010
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China economic growth came at 6.6% (for 2018) as slowest pace since 1990 and it's no news. Yet another boost from Chinese government to pump the market (more stimulus coming), Asian markets green now.
[OP]
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Nov 6, 2015
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Oakville
Forgot the markets are closed today :facepalm:

Happy MLK day!

MLK-Day.jpg
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Wavelet wrote:
Jan 21st, 2019 6:16 am
This seems pretty close to what everyone in the trading community is expecting (bounce off the 200 day moving average or somewhere close to it and then down for a retest of the Dec bottom). There's some disagreement about whether that bottom holds, but, otherwise, this prediction is remarkably universal among the traders I follow. Just how many people expect it and are already starting to short is what concerns me.

I assume you're expecting this during the next leg up and not before we retest Dec lows. If so, sounds reasonable to me.
I think we should get a re-test, lows were made on Christmas day - historically, low volume day when 50% of trading desks are closed.
Mnuchin made some calls and market panicked. Doesn't matter the reason, it was the last push to shake the last longs.
Now, Bonds sold off too on this market rally, but yield curve has not inverted yet. This always happens before the recession - 12-18 months prior.
I am anticipating weakness in stocks (re-test), strength in notes/bonds (but lower high) resulting in inverted curve and lower high in VIX.
How low stock market goes doesn't really matter.
As soon as these three things happen, we should get a trade deal that will immediately propel markets higher. This will be the strong rally lasting 12-18 months, and I think new highs WILL NOT be posted (but something close to 2800-2850).

This is similar to 2007-2008 path. Economy still strong, but fading. Fundamentals will deteriorate due to built-in excesses (debt, rising % rates, zombi companies, corporate debt to buy shares back, etc) and hence my view no new highs, recession in 2020.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
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Mar 22, 2010
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dlhunter wrote:
Jan 21st, 2019 10:22 am
This is similar to 2007-2008 path. Economy still strong, but fading. Fundamentals will deteriorate due to built-in excesses (debt, rising % rates, zombi companies, corporate debt to buy shares back, etc) and hence my view no new highs, recession in 2020.
IMF in similar view.
IMF 2019 World Economic Outlook
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h/t to Forexlive for reposting

Why ‘Risk On’ and ‘Risk Off’ Are How the Markets Roll
May 23, 2018, 9:49 AM EDT

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -quicktake

Ok article, but the value is at the end in the Reference material, especially the correlation "Multi Asset Heat Map." The only good research out of HSBC besides the work of Steve Major
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MrMom wrote:
Jan 22nd, 2019 7:20 am
h/t to Forexlive for reposting

Why ‘Risk On’ and ‘Risk Off’ Are How the Markets Roll
May 23, 2018, 9:49 AM EDT

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -quicktake

Ok article, but the value is at the end in the Reference material, especially the correlation "Multi Asset Heat Map." The only good research out of HSBC besides the work of Steve Major
Yes interesting. Precious metals and JPY/USD correlation only 17% (which dropped from near 70% back in 2018)
[OP]
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Nov 6, 2015
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Oakville
Good morning!
Long ES 2645, NQ 6714
Taking a shot against LOD

Edit: Stops set to 2641, 6703
Edit2: Out of ES at 2644, stopped out of NQ(-11)
Edit3: Trying again ES 2635, NQ 6683, stop LOD

> 2656 and the squeeze is on. Conversely, if LOD goes, we should see 2620.
imo there are too many bears looking for a breakdown, RUT is strong (relatively, no new low)

Capture.PNG
Last edited by margincall on Jan 22nd, 2019 12:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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gunpowder wrote:
Jan 22nd, 2019 11:50 am
Anybody buying GOOS?
ready your swim suite in the winter and sleds in the summer
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
Deal Addict
Jun 27, 2007
4633 posts
1344 upvotes
margincall wrote:
Jan 22nd, 2019 10:45 am
Edit3: Trying again ES 2635, NQ 6683, stop LOD
In @2635 too. That was high value node from Thur. Still, short term trade for me. MAs are turning south and we lost momentum support. Will be out at 2645

edit: lowered to 2641.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
1840 posts
1288 upvotes
Oakville
Very strange VIX action...new highs without new lows in indices
Who's lying? And where are all those FOMO buyers from Friday?

Edit: Long again 2625, 6655. Stopped out earlier.
Edit2: Stops set to entry. Now or never bulls...
Last edited by margincall on Jan 22nd, 2019 1:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Aug 4, 2014
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margincall wrote:
Jan 22nd, 2019 12:39 pm
And where are all those FOMO buyers from Friday?
I finally got CAD converted to USD, only 8K, need to add to VTI (US Total Market) and IEMG (Emerging) ETFs, "is it a good time to buy"? Face With Tears Of Joy
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update: trotting out the PPT

Last edited by MrMom on Jan 22nd, 2019 3:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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