Investing

The Short-Term Trading Thread

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  • Mar 20th, 2024 3:41 pm
Deal Fanatic
Oct 22, 2014
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Richmond Hill
Windseek3r wrote: No deal this year. Same old trick by China and DT. These "news" are just so well timed.
Just before FOMC Minutes show rates are on hold, bad news breaks out about US-China trade deal. The WH is basically holding FED hostage. How is this legal?
Sr. Member
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Nov 15, 2006
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Calgary
Elfwood wrote: Just before FOMC Minutes show rates are on hold, bad news breaks out about US-China trade deal. The WH is basically holding FED hostage. How is this legal?
I highly doubt the FED will react to this "news". Personally, I think they got a bigger fire to fight over the repo market.

edit: just saw this headline on Bloomberg. U.S.-China Trade Deal Inches Ahead, Shadowed by Risk of Failure Can someone teach me how to write like that. lol Essentially they are saying trade talk is going so well that we are not going to have a deal soon. This kind of headline is just algos, HFT dream.
Last edited by Aurelius on Nov 20th, 2019 6:42 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Keep walking through the storm. Your rainbow is waiting on the other side.
Newbie
Aug 23, 2018
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Mississauga, ON
Have anyone been trying the ‘zero trading commission’ wealthsimple? Don’t think they have margin accounts available yet; but the zero commission could be tempting, especially for short term traders..
https://www.wealthsimple.com/en-ca/product/trade/
Last edited by Ashokto on Nov 20th, 2019 10:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ashok Mamkottil
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Mar 24, 2011
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Vancouver
Do you guys only trade in TFSA or RRSP? WHat if you already maxed out TFSA , is it worth to put money for a regular trading acct?
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
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@Ashokto Just an FYI, there is a separate thread for Wealthsimple. You'll find the information there already posted a few times.

@pentexplorer Seems like most regulars here are using a non-reg acct given that a lot of the discussion surrounds Futures. OP has covered his own situation a few times in this and other threads.
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
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Oct 9, 2008
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Thornhill
rapashoo wrote: Right. Just checked twitter. Phase 1 trade deal not happening this year lol well i am surprised to hear this.


NOT
The DT administration is gaming the system unlike anything I remember in the past. These guys are pros and are in lock step with one another; they're basically a well oiled PR machine. In order to push the market higher, they are planting as much information on both sides to influence new shorts and hedging prior to every "good news" blast to ensure short-squeezes happen because buybacks can't propel this market alone.

China invited US negotiators to Beijing for another round of trade talks, report says
During a phone call thought to have been made late last week, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He reportedly invited U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to Beijing to sit down for further negotiations.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/21/china-i ... s-wsj.html

--
If the reports of the invitation being made late last week is true (good news for market), the front-running 'trap' was set on Tuesday this week by Trump when he threatened higher tariffs if China doesn’t make a trade deal. The administration has been frontrunning the market at every step of their own game. Smiling Face With Open Mouth And Smiling Eyes

Trump threatens higher tariffs if China doesn’t make a trade deal
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/19/trump-t ... -deal.html

--

The fear and greed index is now at 71, much tamer than the 91 or so it was a week ago.
Last edited by Jeenyus1 on Nov 21st, 2019 8:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
Newbie
Aug 23, 2018
26 posts
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Mississauga, ON
Thanks @MrMom , the thread on wealthsimple trade is indeed helpful. In essence, it all depends if it’s something that could work for you. Overall, it’s not too bad. Even for the pros, it may not be a bad idea to keep a wealthsimple trade as a secondary trading account. I’m sure they will improve on their platform to make it more user friendly and add the missing features (real-time quotes, margin, options, RESP...). I still wonder why none of the big banks haven’t been acquiring it yet :)
Ashok Mamkottil
Home Financing Advisor - Scotiabank
647 895 8195
ashok.mamkottil@scotiabank.com
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
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Rick Rieder remarked on CNBC this morning about the collapse of put prices and vol. It was more of an observation than a recommendation and he seemed earnest when he said investors should get some vol assets in their portfolio.

On a related side note, for anyone that's ever heard or dealt with Moore Capital, the FT (https://www.ft.com/content/7a50fe7a-0c5 ... c8d9dc6d84) said that Louis Bacon will be returning investor money and shutting down what was once a market mover.

Excerpts;
The closure would see Mr Bacon, 63, joining other prominent hedge fund managers such as Leon Cooperman‘s Omega Advisors and Michael Platt’s BlueCrest who have called time on outside investors in recent years, amid an increasing regulatory burden, pressure on fees and a prolonged period of low interest rates that has frustrated many macro managers.

Raised in North Carolina, Mr Bacon began his trading career at Commodities Corporation in the 1980s, where he cut his teeth alongside future hedge fund stars Bruce Kovner and Paul Tudor Jones.

Mr Bacon is viewed by peers as one of the most successful traders of his generation, known for his ability to shift between positions based on macroeconomic judgments. But he has also struggled to match his historical record since the 2008 financial crisis.

Mr Bacon won early acclaim for making gains of 86 per cent in 1990 after betting on the crash of Japanese markets, and returning 45 per cent in 1992 when the European Exchange Rate Mechanism collapsed. Through last year, Moore had made $18.3bn for investors since the firm’s inception, making it the 15th most profitable hedge fund of all time, according to data published by LCH Investments, a fund of funds manager.
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
10990 posts
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QM isn't small enough

Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
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Solace for Da Bears

Bridgewater Bets Big on Market Drop
World’s largest hedge fund using options to wager that either S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50—or both—fall by March
Nov. 22, 2019 5:30 am ET

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bridgewate ... 1574418601
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
Deal Guru
Feb 4, 2015
10332 posts
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Canada, Eh!!
MrMom wrote: Solace for Da Bears

Bridgewater Bets Big on Market Drop
World’s largest hedge fund using options to wager that either S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50—or both—fall by March
Nov. 22, 2019 5:30 am ET

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bridgewate ... 1574418601
Time will tell... thought early spring or bit later would be when orangutan finally gets China deal... but then again sell on news perhaps?
2022/3: BOC raised 10 times and MCAP raised its prime next day.
2017,2018: BOC raised rates 5 times and MCAP raised its prime next day each time.
2020: BOC dropped rates 3 times and MCAP waited to drop its prime to include all 3 drops.
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Oct 22, 2014
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Richmond Hill
MrMom wrote: Solace for Da Bears

Bridgewater Bets Big on Market Drop
World’s largest hedge fund using options to wager that either S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50—or both—fall by March
Nov. 22, 2019 5:30 am ET

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bridgewate ... 1574418601
First it could just be a hedge for BW's long position. After the 2019 run-up it makes sense to place a hedge on longs.

Secondly Dalio lost a of credibility calling for long equity Jan 2018.
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
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CNBC reported that Ray Dalio is denying the WSJ article ^^^

Update

CBNC article and video of the reporters referencing Dalio's denial, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/22/bridgew ... l-off.html
Last edited by MrMom on Nov 22nd, 2019 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
Sr. Member
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Nov 15, 2006
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Calgary
MrMom wrote: CNBC reported that Ray Dalio is denying the WSJ article ^^^
IMO, he is probably still net long and still establishing his bear positions. He has been on so many different channels making his bear case. I have no doubt he would come out later, if and after the market actually have a meaningful correction, to say that he made a big bet on the bear side months ago. He did that in 2008/2009.

The market is still side way and range bound. Until we have a clear break, up or down, it's no fun to trade atm.
Keep walking through the storm. Your rainbow is waiting on the other side.
Deal Fanatic
Oct 22, 2014
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Richmond Hill
Windseek3r wrote: IMO, he is probably still net long and still establishing his bear positions. He has been on so many different channels making his bear case. I have no doubt he would come out later, if and after the market actually have a meaningful correction, to say that he made a big bet on the bear side months ago. He did that in 2008/2009.

The market is still side way and range bound. Until we have a clear break, up or down, it's no fun to trade atm.
Why would he let WSJ Juliet Chung interview BW and disclose this 1.5B in puts when he is not fully established in his position? He must be done accumulating.
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May 7, 2017
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Elfwood wrote: Why would he let WSJ Juliet Chung interview BW and disclose this 1.5B in puts when he is not fully established in his position? He must be done accumulating.
Dalio denied it.
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Oct 22, 2014
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bend3r wrote: Dalio denied it.
Either heads will roll at BW for this slip-up/leak
Or
BW had already done accumulating and Dalio is denying to not break some SEC rules.
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May 7, 2017
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Elfwood wrote: Either heads will roll at BW for this slip-up/leak
Or
BW had already done accumulating and Dalio is denying to not break some SEC rules.
From what I know about BW, they scale in big positions slowly over months and through different MMs. It is not a one off trade.

Also size of trade making news is just pocket change for these guys. BWs AUM is ~$160b.
Banned
Aug 23, 2019
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bend3r wrote: From what I know about BW, they scale in big positions slowly over months and through different MMs. It is not a one off trade.

Also size of trade making news is just pocket change for these guys. BWs AUM is ~$160b.
exactly.
1.5 billion hedge pocket change.

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