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The Short-Term Trading Thread

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Deal Fanatic
Jun 27, 2007
5507 posts
1956 upvotes
2chaos2 wrote: Nice call, where should we cover?
2579-2582 - trend line from yesterday's lows and 20 MA on 15 min
but, if we are back into yesterday's trading range, it's bearish and I would hold in hopes of betters prices.
stop 2593 for now

edit: double bottomed at 2586.25 (200MA). Must stay below 2597
edit2: trend line is now at 2586 and rising. we could see some chop until 2PM reversal (usual pattern) or we could break out and have a party. decision time

edit3: covered half at 2586. Re-shorted 2598.5. my basis is 2597.5 - right where we are now

edit4: seems like inside day today. close near 200MA would not be good, IMO. But they won't make it easy and rally into the close - to suck in hopeful bulls.

edit5: shallow pull back will lead to higher prices. Bears must break 2586 and close there.
Last edited by dlhunter on Apr 3rd, 2018 12:00 pm, edited 4 times in total.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
In Fed We Trust - Make ES Limit Down Great Again!
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
3026 posts
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Calgary
Jeenyus1 wrote: I see no reason to buy any dips right now for longer than day-trades as 22 VIX looks very stable as everyone waits for the Trump IP tarriff to hit.
Agreed. Shorted ES 2593
Edit: Someone really wants 2590 to hold, sub-2586 we should start accelerating down
Edit2: Stop set to 2595
Edit3: Bailed at 2592, shouldn't have reversed there. Back to my corner.
Last edited by margincall on Apr 3rd, 2018 12:06 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Newbie
Sep 1, 2007
56 posts
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Toronto
arvind84 wrote: Agreed. Shorted ES 2593
Edit: Someone really wants 2590 to hold, sub-2586 we should start accelerating down
Must be Jerry, we need his blessing.
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Oct 9, 2008
5684 posts
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Thornhill
arvind84 wrote: Agreed. Shorted ES 2593
Edit: Someone really wants 2590 to hold, sub-2586 we should start accelerating down
I think the market today tried/is trying to give off the impression that Amazon threats via Trump tweets have lost their 'punch'. The initial reaction was erasing Amazon's gains on open which is not surprising on the release of the tweet, but the shortlived counter-rally failed to bring Amazon back up to HOD and is currently looking like bulls have failed to get past the Trump-Amazon tweets.

If the market-meta for VIX in Q2 low is 20 (my personal belief) then I think 22 is appropriate until at least the big show kicks off on IP tariff or at least Powell's speech later this week.
Last edited by Jeenyus1 on Apr 3rd, 2018 12:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Newbie
Sep 1, 2007
56 posts
17 upvotes
Toronto
Jeenyus1 wrote: I think the market today tried/is trying to give off the impression that Amazon threats via Trump tweets have lost their 'punch'. The initial reaction was erasing Amazon's gains on open which is not surprising on the release of the tweet, but the shortlived counter-rally failed to bring Amazon back up to HOD and is currently looking like bulls have failed to get past the Trump-Amazon tweets.
Agreed. Trump maybe can do a few tweets on FB, it will do a lot more damage than Amazon. Hoping for a payday as I got some puts in FB.
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
3026 posts
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Calgary
Will it be different this time? SPOT opened at $29B market cap Astonished Face

DZ3wnRUVMAAuRiO.jpg
Newbie
Sep 1, 2007
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Toronto
arvind84 wrote: Will it be different this time?


DZ3wnRUVMAAuRiO.jpg
Bailed =( took a small lost
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
3026 posts
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Calgary
2chaos2 wrote: Bailed =( took a small lost
Bears couldn't break 2585/90 after many tries. Still, not dead as long as below HOD, micro LH forming.

Edit: Shorted 2593.5, stop 2600
Edit2: Bought Apr20 SPY 255/246 put spread @ 2.00
Edit3: Covered ES 2588 (+5)
Edit4: Jumped back in short 2583, stop 2590
Edit5: Out 2582, not a great entry, happy with put position for now

Edit6: Bears must push harder, so far we have a corrective ABC off HOD
Edit7: Flipped long 2585, stop 2580
Edit8: Out 2596 (+11). WTF was that?

I'm done for the day. This could squeeze to 2620 above HOD.
Last edited by margincall on Apr 3rd, 2018 1:37 pm, edited 10 times in total.
Newbie
Sep 1, 2007
56 posts
17 upvotes
Toronto
arvind84 wrote: Bears couldn't break 2585/90 after many tries. Still, not dead as long as below HOD, micro LH forming.
Done for the day.
Deal Fanatic
Jun 27, 2007
5507 posts
1956 upvotes
right here right now - 2589-2590 must break

2PM coming up

out 2594

edit: another attempt - short small 2590

edit2: we broke previous low 2584 - this opens the door to 70s. AND, we are now below 20 MA which opens the way to more downside

edit3: cover half 2580
edit4: out the rest 2588. Long 2589 - what happened?
edit5: sold 2595
Last edited by dlhunter on Apr 3rd, 2018 1:54 pm, edited 3 times in total.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
In Fed We Trust - Make ES Limit Down Great Again!
Newbie
Sep 1, 2007
56 posts
17 upvotes
Toronto
dlhunter wrote: right here right now - 2589-2590 must break

2PM coming up

out 2594

edit: another attempt - short small 2590

edit2: we broke previous low 2584 - this opens the door to 70s. AND, we are now below 20 MA which opens the way to more downside

edit3: cover half 2580
edit4: out the rest 2588. Long 2589 - what happened?
Is that some kind of trap? LOL
Deal Fanatic
Jun 27, 2007
5507 posts
1956 upvotes
2chaos2 wrote: Is that some kind of trap? LOL
yea, I think it's a trap. I can't fathom we bottomed like that. Shorts were piling on all day, then they pulled the rug.
short covering rally. Tomorrow is the bears day.

remember, they will not invite everybody to short. Market works by disappointing maximum number of participants.
Last edited by dlhunter on Apr 3rd, 2018 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
In Fed We Trust - Make ES Limit Down Great Again!
Newbie
Sep 1, 2007
56 posts
17 upvotes
Toronto
dlhunter wrote: yea, I think it's a trap. I can't fathom we bottomed like that. Shorts were piling on all day, then they pulled the rug.
short covering rally. Tomorrow is the bears day.

remember, they will not invite everybody to short. Market works by disappointing maximum number of participants.
Bloomberg reports White house not doing anything now to Amazon.... YAY for now, until Trump tweets. Maybe the spike started with Amazon.
Deal Fanatic
Jun 27, 2007
5507 posts
1956 upvotes
:facepalm: first stab ES short 2615 - tiny position
filled 2615.5

bulls are long in the hole - volume is pathetic

edit: and down she goes. Stocks are not bid, at least the ones I follow barely up. AMZN sprinted above 1400 and now below again.
Last edited by dlhunter on Apr 3rd, 2018 3:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
In Fed We Trust - Make ES Limit Down Great Again!
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Oct 9, 2008
5684 posts
2251 upvotes
Thornhill
2chaos2 wrote: Bloomberg reports White house not doing anything now to Amazon.... YAY for now, until Trump tweets. Maybe the spike started with Amazon.
"But inside the White House, there are no active discussions about turning the power of the administration against the company, according to five people familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity.

None of the five people was aware of any ongoing discussion about turning Trump’s tweets into action against Amazon, not on the legal or regulatory fronts, or even regarding its reliance on the U.S. Postal Service, which has drawn the lion’s share of Trump’s wrath."
Banned
Feb 23, 2009
1670 posts
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Oshawa
You guys actually try to trade short term based on CNN and fake news?
Wow.
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Oct 9, 2008
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Thornhill
pkrash wrote: You guys actually try to trade short term based on CNN and fake news?
Wow.
Very interested in your opinion, what do you think the market trades on in the short term besides news?

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