Investing

shorting Canadian Banks

  • Last Updated:
  • Aug 16th, 2017 9:55 am
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Deal Addict
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Oct 9, 2008
3913 posts
801 upvotes
Thornhill
Gungnir wrote:
May 24th, 2017 7:57 am
leflower, it looks like Barclays was a little off on their price targets. For example, they had Royal forecast at $58 after 12 months and it's currently at $93.53 at the close of trading yesterday. You have committed over a million dollars of made up cash to this trade, the worst paper trade I have ever had personal experience with.

Have you learned anything from letting analysts with no skin in the game control your fake money? A question for you though, if in the future you were to put real money up to short a Canadian Bank. Would BMO's monster quarter make any difference to you or is it full steam ahead into even greater losses?

For my own full disclosure, long RY, in case I had not made that clear enough earlier. Smiling Face With Open Mouth And Smiling Eyes
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Deal Addict
May 18, 2015
1092 posts
255 upvotes
Ottawa,Ont
leflower wrote:
May 24th, 2017 9:45 am
Once again, Gung shot off his keyboard a bit too soon. BMO monster earning are in and stock is down 3%...lol
My short will soon be profitable...conditions are now ripe for a BIG correction in the sector.
What is your break even point after paying dividends?
Deal Addict
Nov 9, 2013
1729 posts
529 upvotes
Edmonton, AB
leflower wrote:
May 24th, 2017 9:45 am
Once again, Gung shot off his keyboard a bit too soon. BMO monster earning are in and stock is down 3%...lol
My short will soon be profitable...conditions are now ripe for a BIG correction in the sector.
I must admit I don't understand this - I thought it was good with solid growth and improving ROE and yet the market clearly is disappointed. Perhaps it's because the provision for credit losses is slightly increased (up to 259 million from 201 million) - maybe the market thinks this is the canary in the coal mine?
Member
Aug 17, 2008
479 posts
129 upvotes
Haven't read the details, but I believe the provisions are for Harris and not the Cdn ops
Deal Addict
Nov 24, 2013
3962 posts
1048 upvotes
Kingston, ON
treva84 wrote:
May 24th, 2017 10:18 am
I must admit I don't understand this - I thought it was good with solid growth and improving ROE and yet the market clearly is disappointed. Perhaps it's because the provision for credit losses is slightly increased (up to 259 million from 201 million) - maybe the market thinks this is the canary in the coal mine?
I agree that this is like trying to determine the shape of an ice cube from a melted puddle of water, but I did see this blurb:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-i ... e35096312/
BMO’s U.S. push hit a speed bump in the second quarter as higher loan losses eroded earnings from its Chicago-based BMO Harris Bank.

The lender set aside $259-million for soured loans, up 29 percent from a year earlier and the highest since at least 2011, tied largely to U.S. personal and commercial banking and corporate services, the Toronto-based firm said Wednesday in a statement. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected provisions of about $200-million.
So the issues are US side, not a canary-in-a-coal-mine for Canada at all?
Deal Addict
Jul 22, 2015
1246 posts
372 upvotes
Saint-Hubert, QC
The amount of money banks generate is crazy lol...

Apart from the housing bubble, what else can make them drop?
Member
Oct 27, 2014
324 posts
211 upvotes
Toronto, ON
leflower wrote:
Feb 10th, 2016 1:55 pm
Not at all...I said they would be cutting divs within the next 18 months. We shall see if I am correct. I realize that most here are long bank stocks through funds but it should be healthy to hear the other side of the coin. I never bash anyone who tries to prove me wrong. If I am wrong, I will move on.
OP posted this 15 months ago.
Sr. Member
Oct 21, 2014
575 posts
334 upvotes
Burlington, ON
muppetslayer wrote:
May 25th, 2017 8:37 am
OP posted this 15 months ago.
There is no point in continuing this thread, the OP has been thoroughly discredited. :rolleyes:
Member
Aug 14, 2010
343 posts
124 upvotes
Toronto
I see this thread is unlocked again. Good. OP was probably hoping this thread would get buried and save him from embarrassment as one of the worst shorts in this forum's history. 1 month left....LOL

I think leflower deserves a special title under his name for this epic fail....what do you guys think?
Deal Addict
Dec 6, 2006
3553 posts
608 upvotes
Toronto
Time flies quick... we all wasted 18 months of our life on this thread omg.
Member
Aug 14, 2010
343 posts
124 upvotes
Toronto
And it's official. leflower with one of the worst shorts in this forums history. Congrats. Face With Tears Of Joy
Deal Addict
Nov 9, 2013
1729 posts
529 upvotes
Edmonton, AB
Oh interesting I thought this thread was locked but yes, not a good trade. Does anyone have any idea what the % loss to date would be?

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