I am in this for cashflow and if you're talking about such a short timeframe as a year then you haven't been reading my posts. I'll sit on stock for YEARS if I think it's prospects are good no matter what the charts say. Go look through my posts if you like and check my buys of Nike for example. I'm still holding.kilburn305 wrote: ↑ no im not. just out of Canada banks and into ZBK.
I think you're gonna get smoked this year and with your cocky attitude you deserve it.
shorting Canadian Banks
- Last Updated:
- Mar 21st, 2024 10:34 pm
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- SCORE-26
- Gungnir
- Deal Addict
- Oct 21, 2014
- 1940 posts
- 2940 upvotes
- Burlington, ON
- kilburn305
- Deal Addict
- Aug 16, 2015
- 1201 posts
- 522 upvotes
Conquistador wrote: ↑ Just had to quote this gem for posterity.
So NOW the implosion is starting? Funny, people have being saying that around here for years and years. Just had to laugh at this latest prognostication.
Prices are down 11% and sales volume is at 2009 levels buddy. Check the news every once in awhile.
- emanon86
- Sr. Member
- Aug 14, 2010
- 612 posts
- 386 upvotes
- Toronto
Just so we can get some clarity when we look back at this in 2019, what's your definition of "smoked"? -40%? -30%?kilburn305 wrote: ↑ no im not. just out of Canada banks and into ZBK.
I think you're gonna get smoked this year and with your cocky attitude you deserve it.
- kilburn305
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- MrMom
- Deal Guru
- Aug 17, 2008
- 10990 posts
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For those who did not watch the video, please watch it and draw your own conclusions. Don't take my word or anyone else's word. IMO, he did not say nor are you paraphrasing what he said.kilburn305 wrote: ↑ the banks are a short. I sold all my ZEB today. The housing market has just started it's implosion.
The guy from the big short also agrees Canadian financials are the next big short.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/steve-eisma ... -1.1076102
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
- Gungnir
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It's too late, he already sold his bank etf, although considering his posts I was pretty surprised that he even had any holdings of Canadian banks to begin with. Going short is a tough game with these because the dividend is so high, you have to be nimble to avoid losing from the dividend. I highly doubt the average investor, especially one that takes direction from bnn (lol) is going to be able to do that.
If you don't believe in the asset by all means sell, but short? Come on. Read this thread and learn from mistakes.
- MrMom
- Deal Guru
- Aug 17, 2008
- 10990 posts
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Solid report from CM. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -estimates
OP's 2 bank shorts report tomorrow.
OP's 2 bank shorts report tomorrow.
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
- canvestor
- Newbie
- Mar 22, 2018
- 58 posts
- 12 upvotes
Yes solid report, no one is debating the banks ability to make money, I am saying they are overvalued. Last quarter CIBC had good earnings, went up $3 then ended up barely positive, today I think its down as well.
- rodbarc
- Deal Fanatic
- Dec 14, 2010
- 7113 posts
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How overvalued? What is your suggested number for intrinsic value? Or book value?
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- canvestor
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- Mar 22, 2018
- 58 posts
- 12 upvotes
P/E Ratio closer to 9.
- xgbsSS
- Deal Fanatic
- May 11, 2014
- 6582 posts
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- Rankin Inlet, NU
Really? Your short thesis is not based on deterioration in earnings, but merely P/E ratio? That is a very flimsy basis for a short especially one where you have to contend with a dividend.
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- Gungnir
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- rodbarc
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Intrinsic value and book value is measured in dollars. What is a good number for you here?
P/E 9 is meaningless without factoring its typical ratio and earnings forecast. Btw, the industry pays a lot more than 9 times earnings for Canadian banks. Royal typically trades at a P/E of 13, which is reasonable given that earnings are forecast to grow to $8.38 this year and to $8.94 next year.
It traded at P/E of 9 in 2008, when shares were way below book value.
So what is your take for RY intrinsic value?
Rod
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- canvestor
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So maybe im a horrible investor, im still happy with the way the banks are performing today. I got nervous when CM had better earnings than I expected but I guess they just werent good enough.
- Gungnir
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Let's improve the investing skills. A company that is trading at a bit under 14x, yielding 3.5% that increased it's earnings 20% yoy is probably not a good long term short. The banks just generate far too much cash to be shorted over any long period. You have to be very nimble to short these things or you'll get obliterated by the dividend.
TORONTO, May 24, 2018 /CNW/ - TD Bank Group ("TD" or the "Bank") today announced its financial results for the second quarter ended April 30, 2018. Second quarter reported earnings were $2.9 billion, up 17% and adjusted earnings were $3.1 billion, up 20% compared with the same quarter last year.
TD Q2 2018
Pro tip: Don't get married to a position, and don't let your political views control your money. Have a thesis, and if that thesis gets invalidated, take your loss and exit.
- canvestor
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- Mar 22, 2018
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Yes the earnings have been incredible on the banks.
- Gungnir
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- canvestor
- Newbie
- Mar 22, 2018
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I am definitely thinking of closing out the positions, not doing nearly as well as I was a few weeks ago but maybe better to be safe than sorry.
- muppetslayer
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- Oct 27, 2014
- 560 posts
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- Toronto, ON
canvestor isn't as fun as leflower, sees too much reason
- canvestor
- Newbie
- Mar 22, 2018
- 58 posts
- 12 upvotes
Banks are still down though (except TD) despite good earnings.