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So glad I own TSLA!!!

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  • Jul 13th, 2018 10:34 am
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treva84 wrote:
Apr 3rd, 2018 7:28 am
There is a meaningful difference between the product and the stock. Just because they make a fantastic product doesn't mean it's necessarily a good investment.
This can not be overstated enough.

I own a Tesla Model S - purchased new and delivered in Dec 2017. It is - without a doubt - the most impressive car I have ever owned. Coming from a BMW and Audi background, I would purchase a Tesla again before even looking at the offerings from those other brands. It really is that impressive as a vehicle.

On the other hand - as an investment - its not something I could fathom touching. The burn rate of the company means that not only is profitability a long ways away, a dilution based equity offering is pretty much a forgone conclusion. Couple that with current valuations that have it near that of Ford/GM - established car producers making more cars in a month than TSLA will annually - and there is a recipe for a significant pullback even from these levels. The promise of the Model 3 leading the charge to mainstream adoption is nice in theory, but years away in practicality. Add in the enormous cost - and inevitible "production hell" - of the Model Y that is scheduled to begin at some point this year and its not unreasonable to think that consistent profitability for the company could be several years (and several rounds of equity offering) away.

Love the car. Absolutely love it. Not comfortable with the company for my portfolio.
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It seems Tesla is having much of the same issues every car company has even though Elon wanted to make a "different" company. Quality, recalls, labour issues, efficiency, etc.
After missing targets Elon is taking over Model 3 production. He's a pretty busy guy...I doubt this will change much.
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toolioiep wrote:
Apr 3rd, 2018 11:17 am
This can not be overstated enough.

I own a Tesla Model S - purchased new and delivered in Dec 2017. It is - without a doubt - the most impressive car I have ever owned. Coming from a BMW and Audi background, I would purchase a Tesla again before even looking at the offerings from those other brands. It really is that impressive as a vehicle.

On the other hand - as an investment - its not something I could fathom touching. The burn rate of the company means that not only is profitability a long ways away, a dilution based equity offering is pretty much a forgone conclusion. Couple that with current valuations that have it near that of Ford/GM - established car producers making more cars in a month than TSLA will annually - and there is a recipe for a significant pullback even from these levels. The promise of the Model 3 leading the charge to mainstream adoption is nice in theory, but years away in practicality. Add in the enormous cost - and inevitible "production hell" - of the Model Y that is scheduled to begin at some point this year and its not unreasonable to think that consistent profitability for the company could be several years (and several rounds of equity offering) away.

Love the car. Absolutely love it. Not comfortable with the company for my portfolio.
What's so impressive about the S? A friend had a S4 but was also kinda wowed by his S that he initially thought about selling his S4.

I think you will like the i4 when it comes out in 2020. By then BEVs will be commodities with mainstream and higher end models.

Unless you think AP on your Tesla is light year's ahead and find the SCN to be a must have but at least you have free charging for the life of the car, which will kinda cover some potential maintenance issues post-warranty/ESA. :)
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alanbrenton wrote:
Apr 3rd, 2018 11:52 am
What's so impressive about the S? A friend had a S4 but was also kinda wowed by his S that he initially thought about selling his S4.

I think you will like the i4 when it comes out in 2020. By then BEVs will be commodities with mainstream and higher end models.

Unless you think AP on your Tesla is light year's ahead and find the SCN to be a must have but at least you have free charging for the life of the car, which will kinda cover some potential maintenance issues post-warranty/ESA. :)
Rent one, they are on Turo. You'll see what's impressive lol
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DaVibe wrote:
Apr 5th, 2018 1:27 am
Rent one, they are on Turo. You'll see what's impressive lol
Nah. My friend asked me if I wanted to drive his. I think I know whay instant torque and single gearing feels like.
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alanbrenton wrote:
Apr 5th, 2018 2:46 am
Nah. My friend asked me if I wanted to drive his. I think I know whay instant torque and single gearing feels like.
I think there's so much "new" with the car that it equates to being impressed overall.

The highway auto-pilot, the size of the windshield / roof, the self-parking, the largest touchscreen of any vehicle, fastest car you've ever driven, electric (and leading mileage at the time), and IMO is luxurious inside (simple but comfortable).
There's a ton of other features I'm forgetting but I just think it's a blast to the senses, compares to vehicles we have available today.

Will this car be impressive in 2028, no, it won't be.
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DaVibe wrote:
Apr 5th, 2018 12:32 pm
I think there's so much "new" with the car that it equates to being impressed overall.

The highway auto-pilot, the size of the windshield / roof, the self-parking, the largest touchscreen of any vehicle, fastest car you've ever driven, electric (and leading mileage at the time), and IMO is luxurious inside (simple but comfortable).
There's a ton of other features I'm forgetting but I just think it's a blast to the senses, compares to vehicles we have available today.

Will this car be impressive in 2028, no, it won't be.
The thing is, my concerns (limited budget and don't want to write off a $60k vehicle in a few years) overwhelm these niceties:
  • ongoing concern -- how long will the bleeding go on?
  • time to repair under warranty and insurance costs too because of absurdly expensive repair costs
  • lack of Right to Repair - going to be cost post-warranty
less of a concern would be the one 15" display for changing all driver settings

because I don't do cross country driving, I'm okay not having highway lane change or exit assists,
the bigger the windshield, the higher the risk of replacement,
I don't drive that fast anymore and even my two cars can still easily do 170 but I'm not crazy enough to drive that fast anyway


If Tesla were to guarantee residual value of a M3 by purchasing insurance so that buyers are protected from Tesla packing up its Canadian operations, that would be one big step for me to go through with a purchase.
If Tesla would open the right to repair, then costs of parts/repairs post-warranty will go down but so far it seems Tesla wants to control everything, which makes sense while the cars are under warranty and could be a liability for Tesla but not when the warranties have long passed when owners will be stuck paying significant premiums replacing parts and all. I'm not making a living to fund Tesla executives' dreams and salaries and stock options.
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alanbrenton wrote:
Apr 5th, 2018 12:40 pm
The thing is, my concerns (limited budget and don't want to write off a $60k vehicle in a few years) overwhelm these niceties:
  • ongoing concern -- how long will the bleeding go on?
  • time to repair under warranty and insurance costs too because of absurdly expensive repair costs
  • lack of Right to Repair - going to be cost post-warranty
less of a concern would be the one 15" display for changing all driver settings

because I don't do cross country driving, I'm okay not having highway lane change or exit assists,
the bigger the windshield, the higher the risk of replacement,
I don't drive that fast anymore and even my two cars can still easily do 170 but I'm not crazy enough to drive that fast anyway


If Tesla were to guarantee residual value of a M3 by purchasing insurance so that buyers are protected from Tesla packing up its Canadian operations, that would be one big step for me to go through with a purchase.
If Tesla would open the right to repair, then costs of parts/repairs post-warranty will go down but so far it seems Tesla wants to control everything, which makes sense while the cars are under warranty and could be a liability for Tesla but not when the warranties have long passed when owners will be stuck paying significant premiums replacing parts and all. I'm not making a living to fund Tesla executives' dreams and salaries and stock options.
I am pretty sure Tesla is not worried about having more buyers for M3. No product is right for everybody, so there's no point chasing every potential buyer. Tesla has more orders than they know what to do with.
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Archanfel wrote:
Apr 5th, 2018 12:47 pm
I am pretty sure Tesla is not worried about having more buyers for M3. No product is right for everybody, so there's no point chasing every potential buyer. Tesla has more orders than they know what to do with.
That sounds good for shareholders, for now.

You didn't even read my concerns about the company itself and repair costs. I'm sure EM will have no issues selling all the M3's it can produce but I don't have a money tree and I am taking a calculated approach to BEV adoption. There's no point saving on fuel if it's going to cost me a lot more on repair or depreciation costs.

I'm not worried about not going with the purchase either but just keeping a hold of my reservation just in case most BEVS by 2021 are still compliance cars and if Tesla shares will be hitting the $3k figure. :)

Just keep buying TSLA shares after the recent correction. There's no way to go but up, right?
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alanbrenton wrote:
Apr 5th, 2018 12:50 pm
That sounds good for shareholders, for now.

You didn't even read my concerns about the company itself and repair costs. I'm sure EM will have no issues selling all the M3's it can produce but I don't have a money tree and I am taking a calculated approach to BEV adoption. There's no point saving on fuel if it's going to cost me a lot more on repair or depreciation costs.

I'm not worried about not going with the purchase either but just keeping a hold of my reservation just in case most BEVS by 2021 are still compliance cars. :)

Just keep buying TSLA shares after the recent correction. There's no way to go but up, right?
Tesla does not care about people who are "taking a calculated approach to BEV adoption". They can't even handle people who just jump into BEV blindly. If Tesla lost its brand fanboys and buyers start to think, they would be in trouble.

The question for stockholders is whether they can make money on M3 and whether they can survive long enough to make those money. Hard to say.

I have a few shares that I buy and sell to make a little lunch money. It's not a stock that I would invest in long term. (There's no such stock for me, I only hold index).
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Archanfel wrote:
Apr 5th, 2018 1:07 pm
Tesla does not care about people who are "taking a calculated approach to BEV adoption". They can't even handle people who just jump into BEV blindly. If Tesla lost its brand fanboys and buyers start to think, they would be in trouble.

The question for stockholders is whether they can make money on M3 and whether they can survive long enough to make those money. Hard to say.

I have a few shares that I buy and sell to make a little lunch money. It's not a stock that I would invest in long term. (There's no such stock for me, I only hold index).
I don't care if Tesla doesn't care about potential customers like me. I don't feel any self-entitlement or self-importance. I just vote with my hard-earned dollars and so far I'm not convinced that I want to own a Tesla post-warranty. I don't want to be the guinea pig, that's all.

Well, they have the Semi, powerwall, solarcity, etc. so the question is more than M3 sales and profitability.
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alanbrenton wrote:
Apr 5th, 2018 1:09 pm
I don't care if Tesla doesn't care about potential customers like me. I don't feel any self-entitlement or importance.

Well, they have the Semi, powerwall, solarcity, etc. so the question is more than M3 sales and profitability.
None of those matter. The only thing matters is M3. If the M3 bubble burst, they are done for. It's a faith that Tesla is creating a new future that it will be uniquely positioned to profit from (much like Apply was). You either believe it or you don't.
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Archanfel wrote:
Apr 5th, 2018 1:17 pm
None of those matter. The only thing matters is M3. If the M3 bubble burst, they are done for. It's a faith that Tesla is creating a new future that it will be uniquely positioned to profit from (much like Apply was). You either believe it or you don't.
Are you sure? You have no vested interested in TSLA (besides day trading) yet you suggest you know a lot about the company. How do you know M3 carries the most weight when the assembly is just ramping up? Is it because of the gigafactory (probably for anything auto and solar) or the robots? or workers?

Much easier for Apple, not a lot of moving parts and easy for business to scale. Heck they even outsourced manufacturing to FoxConn. People can easily afford a $1k phone but definitely not a $60k vehicle that could be a liability over the long term.

I'm not bashing TSLA but just expressed my concerns why I am now WOWed by the few technological benefits of the vehicle because of my main concerns with how the auto business is run and because the DRCC on our RAV4 is just fine on the highway.
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alanbrenton wrote:
Apr 5th, 2018 1:19 pm
Are you sure? You have no vested interested in TSLA (besides day trading) yet you suggest you know a lot about the company. How do you know M3 carries the most weight when the assembly is just ramping up? Is it because of the gigafactory (probably for anything auto and solar) or the robots? or workers?

Much easier for Apple, not a lot of moving parts and easy for business to scale. Heck they even outsourced manufacturing to FoxConn. People can easily afford a $1k phone but definitely not a $60k vehicle that could be a liability over the long term.

I'm not bashing TSLA but just expressed my concerns why I am now WOWed by the few technological benefits of the vehicle because of my main concerns with how the auto business is run and because the DRCC on our RAV4 is just fine on the highway.
Again, you are not Tesla's target customer. It's like saying you are not "WOWed" by a Ferrari because "your RAV4 is just fine on the highway. " I would totally agree with you. I would also believe such opinion has no bearing on Ferrari's stock price since Ferrari was not trying to sell to you in the first place.

Outsourced or not, there's very little reason why the iPhone has a much higher profit margin than anybody else in the market. It's about faith (or fanboyness if there's such word).

Similarly, Tesla's valuation is based on a faith. M3 itself is not the point, the point is that the faith needs M3 to succeed. Let's say Tesla solved its manufacture issue and produced all 500,000 M3 this year. Does that justify a valuation over Ford which sold over 6.6M vehicles? It's not about M3. It's about the faith for a brighter future. Apple realized that future, Tesla is still the unknown, yet the faith is there.

Unlike a theory, a faith does not have to be justified. You either believe it or not. Can you prove God exists? Yet people still believe in him. And to be honest, the church is a far bigger business than Tesla ever will be.
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Archanfel wrote:
Apr 5th, 2018 2:58 pm
Again, you are not Tesla's target customer. It's like saying you are not "WOWed" by a Ferrari because "your RAV4 is just fine on the highway. " I would totally agree with you. I would also believe such opinion has no bearing on Ferrari's stock price since Ferrari was not trying to sell to you in the first place.

Outsourced or not, there's very little reason why the iPhone has a much higher profit margin than anybody else in the market. It's about faith (or fanboyness if there's such word).

Similarly, Tesla's valuation is based on a faith. M3 itself is not the point, the point is that the faith needs M3 to succeed. Let's say Tesla solved its manufacture issue and produced all 500,000 M3 this year. Does that justify a valuation over Ford which sold over 6.6M vehicles? It's not about M3. It's about the faith for a brighter future. Apple realized that future, Tesla is still the unknown, yet the faith is there.

Unlike a theory, a faith does not have to be justified. You either believe it or not. Can you prove God exists? Yet people still believe in him. And to be honest, the church is a far bigger business than Tesla ever will be.
I never said I was a target market but I did put a reservation deposit because I didn't realize some of the concerns like Right to Repair wouldn't come to fruition. Because it hasn't been fixed and I think there is a risk as an ongoing operation, I would rather wait even for a Toyota/Lexus/Nissan/Infiniti/even BMW BEV.

I think most rationale people would never be Tesla's target market because the TOC might be significant more than a fine ICEV. Majority of buyers just hadn't done the bean counting.

No, the iPhone offers the iOS ecosystem that people who hate Android will flock too. There is no other player. With Tesla, there is no moat and for many the lack of a SCN is not an issue.

Not sure why you think it's all m3. Next you might go with Y.

Good thing you are just daytrading this for lunch money.

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