Real Estate

The State of Canadian Household Balance Sheets as National Home Sales Drop to 10 Year Low

  • Last Updated:
  • Mar 20th, 2019 11:32 am
[OP]
Deal Fanatic
Feb 29, 2008
8104 posts
3160 upvotes

The State of Canadian Household Balance Sheets as National Home Sales Drop to 10 Year Low

The realtor in the video Steve is pretty decent. I watch his videos from time to time. His outlook on Vancouver real estate is quite bad. The super bears in the comment section though remind me of the ones who used to post here. They are cheering for a complete and total crash so they can jump in and buy. Such an idiotic "plan".



Just posting for a different perspective.
11 replies
Deal Addict
Jan 23, 2016
1035 posts
252 upvotes
Kitchener, ON
Soooooo basically it’s a bubble. If you are a buyer this year you need your head examined.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 9, 2009
7726 posts
4662 upvotes
Vancouver has a govt that is trying to destroy re but at the same time is looking to it for tax revenue.

Eventually one has to give... either lower re prices in Vancouver due to all the new rules or higher taxes coming to everyone there soon...

The bc Ndp has no clue what they are doing.
Member
Mar 13, 2017
499 posts
634 upvotes
This guy is pretty funny. I've watched a few of his videos and he's a "data dependent" kindda guy. However, he forgets to give up a disclaimer that says his interpretation of data is his opinion, and therefore doesn't make it fact.

I'm at the part of this video where he compares a coming sales volume recovery in Vancouver with the bottom end of the FLA housing market after the 08 credit crisis. His opinion is that prices will decrease as sales volume decrease mimicking the FLA chart he points to as prices enter clearance levels. He may be correct, but he'd have to correlate the associated credit crunch that would fuel that; the same type of liquidity problem that fueled the FLA market/era he points to. The reality is, credit conditions are becoming better, not worse as rates decline and lenders find workarounds stress tests.
Member
Mar 13, 2017
499 posts
634 upvotes
I'm sure this guy comes off as a wizard to his followers, but he's classic at presenting apples/oranges data:

14:34: starts taking about negative interest rates for last 10yrs in Europe and how that hasn't done anything for growth. Now he's talking GDP vs Housing. If he really thinks we're following the Euro path, than our economy will continue to struggle as foreign ownership props up our housing.

He mentions the contrast between Canadian vs US household debt, very true. Sadly he only uses it as a doom 'n gloom on Canada housing instead of pointing out how the US is poised to go on a 10-15yr housing run from here.
[OP]
Deal Fanatic
Feb 29, 2008
8104 posts
3160 upvotes
Sparky9087 wrote:
Mar 17th, 2019 9:22 am
Soooooo basically it’s a bubble. If you are a buyer this year you need your head examined.
We've been in a bubble for many years.
[OP]
Deal Fanatic
Feb 29, 2008
8104 posts
3160 upvotes
1cat2dogs wrote:
Mar 17th, 2019 11:01 am
I'm sure this guy comes off as a wizard to his followers, but he's classic at presenting apples/oranges data:

14:34: starts taking about negative interest rates for last 10yrs in Europe and how that hasn't done anything for growth. Now he's talking GDP vs Housing. If he really thinks we're following the Euro path, than our economy will continue to struggle as foreign ownership props up our housing.

He mentions the contrast between Canadian vs US household debt, very true. Sadly he only uses it as a doom 'n gloom on Canada housing instead of pointing out how the US is poised to go on a 10-15yr housing run from here.
Yes, he can be all over the place at times. He has to keep his followers fed.
Deal Addict
Jan 23, 2016
1035 posts
252 upvotes
Kitchener, ON
JayLove06 wrote:
Mar 17th, 2019 11:02 am
We've been in a bubble for many years.
Why the change of heart. I feel like you’ve been a big bull for a long time. Anytime there is an identifiable bubble we should all be cheerleading it’s demise. It isn’t good for the economy. Stable home price growth is.
[OP]
Deal Fanatic
Feb 29, 2008
8104 posts
3160 upvotes
Sparky9087 wrote:
Mar 17th, 2019 11:15 am
Why the change of heart. I feel like you’ve been a big bull for a long time. Anytime there is an identifiable bubble we should all be cheerleading it’s demise. It isn’t good for the economy. Stable home price growth is.
Vancouver? Absolutely. I have always said Vancouver is a mess.
Member
Jul 10, 2018
464 posts
410 upvotes
1cat2dogs wrote:
Mar 17th, 2019 11:01 am
Sadly he only uses it as a doom 'n gloom on Canada housing instead of pointing out how the US is poised to go on a 10-15yr housing run from here.
Is it?
Deal Fanatic
Oct 7, 2010
8545 posts
992 upvotes
The gov of Vancouver can go hide somewhere and stay quiet. The only way to bring affordability and taxes is to tax the foreign buyers significantly. They must pay to play.

Also increase the tuition for all Visa students studying in BC up to 2x the previous rate, 100 percent as gov tax. This way the locals can benefit from the influx of foreigners.
Deal Addict
Oct 7, 2007
4786 posts
1595 upvotes
spike1128 wrote:
Mar 19th, 2019 3:39 pm
The gov of Vancouver can go hide somewhere and stay quiet. The only way to bring affordability and taxes is to tax the foreign buyers significantly. They must pay to play.

Also increase the tuition for all Visa students studying in BC up to 2x the previous rate, 100 percent as gov tax. This way the locals can benefit from the influx of foreigners.
Great policies! It is interesting how as time passes, the suspicions about the housing affordability problems occurring in Vancouver that were raised by the locals are slowly being proven through data and studies. It used to be that if anyone raised any concerns about money laundering or foreign investment, the former Mayor would call people racists for asking questions but now we are finding out that these suspicions were actually based on truth. I wonder how many other things are true that we don't know about or were led to believe otherwise.

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