The stock market feels like hell

[FunSave22]

Think of the profits people who shorted the markets got ? At least 35% like you said.

Think of the people who guessed the correct number on the roulette wheel three times in a row.

Just because they managed to guess the correct number on the wheel three times in a row, doesn't mean they should make roulette their investment strategy. There's no evidence market timing works in the long term.

[ccyk]

Evidence please. And real evidence, not anecdotes.

Every single study that I'm aware of on market timing shows that over the long term no one, or almost no one, can successfully time the market. It really is as simple as that.

maybe we TA people should start a thread to call timing and shut these people up.

[rfdrfd]

Think of the people who guessed the correct number on the roulette wheel three times in a row.

Just because they managed to guess the correct number on the wheel three times in a row, doesn't mean they should make roulette their investment strategy. There's no evidence market timing works in the long term.

The whole market is proof that market timing works. Look at the S&P for the last 10 yrs. Look at the tops, did it match the top from last time? Yes. Look at the bottom of the 2008 crash, where did it stop going down, SAME area as the last bottom (look back in history)

You really think institutions (big $$) doesn't time the market and wait for perfect times to BUY and SELL ? They just randomly go into work and say "okay, I think I"ll buy 10 billion dollars worth of SPY today". Then a few weeks later, sell it just because he felt like it?

We are ALL brainwashed by "experts" to tell us to only BUY BUY BUY. You cannot time the market, no one can. Do you really think these people are here to help us make money? If we all make money, then who's losing? Remember, $10 profit from someone exiting a position means someone else lost $10.

With Technical analysis, you do not guess. You find the highest probability trade, and build a safe trade around it.

[rfdrfd]

Evidence please. And real evidence, not anecdotes.

Every single study that I'm aware of on market timing shows that over the long term no one, or almost no one, can successfully time the market. It really is as simple as that.

That's exactly what they want you to believe. So you don't hound your TD financial advisor and ask "Soooo this is your JOB and you have NO IDEA if this is a good time to buy this stock or mutual fund??? REALLY? "

Please search my name and look at ALL the postings with charts I did. I must have posted at least 10 by now. All of them proof that you want. All of them are entering at a demand zone AT THE RIGHT TIME, or shorting at the supply zone AT THE RIGHT TIME.

Okay, fine, I've posted this before, but I'll post it again. This is the REAL trades by Online Trading Academy Pro-picks. They show us setups AHEAD of time, and if it matches the criteria, they take it with their account. Everything is logged, nothing is fake or hidden.

This is real OTA teachings in action. Trading price only, market timing. Look at the circled part. Note the average win amount vs. average loss amount.




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[rfdrfd]

maybe we TA people should start a thread to call timing and shut these people up.

Its just that most TA people do not belong in RFD, so they aren't posting. They are probably too busy making money.

[rfdrfd]

Okay, since I have some time tonight, I'll even SPELL it out for you, market timing in a very basic way:

This is SPY (ETF for S&P500), "the market". From 1996 to now. So say we were back in 2005, its going up and up, yeah we are all happy. Then it suddenly hit a ceiling at (B), in 2007, 2008 and CRASHED!!! OMG why !!??

News tells you : Its due to banks, their asset back mortgages crashed, housing crashed... oh really??? Look over to history (left), where did the SPY drop last time at this level? OH at (A). Geee.... isn't that a coincidence. Maybe it wasn't just about housing crash, maybe cause (A) is a huge SUPPLY area. Technically speaking.

So, after (B) 2008 crash, we drop... then magically at D, that was the bottom. WHY??? Give whatever you wanna give as a reason, USA economy better, blah blah blah... the real reason: Look to the left, when did price turn back up last time? Area (C). That was a strong demand area. DONE.

We are now at (E). Guess what, we are very very close to (B), and the two red lines that I drew are supply zones from our OTA instructors. So, we're slowing down, news tells you its Europe, this and that. Well, maybe its just the charts and demand and supply.

So, to market time for 1996 to 2011, can one not: SHORT at B ($156), then cover at around (D) $78 = 78 DOLLARS profit per share = 50% gain !!

Then at (D), we BUY long at around $78, and sell at around (B) or even (E) $137 = 59 bucks profit per share !! This is just one simple ETF. DONE.

So is 15 years long enough term for ya? To prove market timing works? How do you like them apples?




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[angelok]

Its just that most TA people do not belong in RFD, so they aren't posting. They are probably too busy making money.

LOL.. Thats why several Hedge Funds have bit the biscuit this year.

[SkimGuy]

Seriously guys, this sounds like a science debate, where one party is trying to argue something by saying it can't not be proven thus it is true lol.
Everyone has their own opinion.

[rfdrfd]

LOL.. Thats why several Hedge Funds have bit the biscuit this year.

Na.. don't believe what "news" they leak out. They just leak out what they WANT you to hear. Go on Youtube and search for Jim Cramer Hedge Fund lies

That was 1 thing Jim Cramer actually was truthful on. His stock picks are the worse. Just do the 100% opposite of what he says haha

[charliebrown]

Okay, since I have some time tonight, I'll even SPELL it out for you, market timing in a very basic way:

This is SPY (ETF for S&P500), "the market". From 1996 to now. So say we were back in 2005, its going up and up, yeah we are all happy. Then it suddenly hit a ceiling at (B), in 2007, 2008 and CRASHED!!! OMG why !!??

News tells you : Its due to banks, their asset back mortgages crashed, housing crashed... oh really??? Look over to history (left), where did the SPY drop last time at this level? OH at (A). Geee.... isn't that a coincidence. Maybe it wasn't just about housing crash, maybe cause (A) is a huge SUPPLY area. Technically speaking.

So, after (B) 2008 crash, we drop... then magically at D, that was the bottom. WHY??? Give whatever you wanna give as a reason, USA economy better, blah blah blah... the real reason: Look to the left, when did price turn back up last time? Area (C). That was a strong demand area. DONE.

We are now at (E). Guess what, we are very very close to (B), and the two red lines that I drew are supply zones from our OTA instructors. So, we're slowing down, news tells you its Europe, this and that. Well, maybe its just the charts and demand and supply.

So, to market time for 1996 to 2011, can one not: SHORT at B ($156), then cover at around (D) $78 = 78 DOLLARS profit per share = 50% gain !!

Then at (D), we BUY long at around $78, and sell at around (B) or even (E) $137 = 59 bucks profit per share !! This is just one simple ETF. DONE.

So is 15 years long enough term for ya? To prove market timing works? How do you like them apples?




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It's great when you look back and point out that "D" was a great buying opportunity

But to be honest, that week in March 2009 (Mar 2-6), how many people actually bought? Although, I guess there had to be enough buyers, in order for the SPY to bottom around 666, then shoot past 800 by March 20

Now, if someone takes your example, and buy in at ~780 (mid-late Feb/09), I'm not sure a stop loss at 680/700 would be unreasonable? So if someone bought in during Feb, there's a good chance their stop position would've been stopped out -- unless, of course, you start buying after the early March lows.

If i had to pick one news item coinciding around that time, I'd say it was the Bernanke interview on 60mins -- although that aired Sunday, March 15 (S&P opened at 759 the next morning)

[cmackie]

rfdrfd, I think it's great that you have so much conviction and if sticking to your process is working then keep it up! Your posts are getting a bit preachy though and feels like you're trying to force the concept on others. Of course with TA, it works that much better if you can get other people to act on the same signals especially if you get in before them. I jokingly think that's really what OTA is up to - teach people to track patterns that they've already acted upon - all while charging thousands of dollars to make it seem high in educational value.

[Cerenity]

agreed, starting to sound like a sales pitch.
rfdrfd, im actually a firm believer of utilizing TA, even as a fundamentalist, but you're doing a disservice to TA by being this aggressive

while its easy to draw lines going back and see where to buy, typically the range is not that defined when the event is actually happening. what may look like small modifications to the supply/demand lines makes a HUGE difference when your stop is set a few % away.

personally i use TA, but only to supplement other evaluation methods. i would probably not use TA on its own

my beef with relying solely on TA is that its like a text book, and too easy to follow, which implies if it was a superior method on its own, everyone would be doing it, and negate its superiority. my view is that alpha is best delivered over the long run from areas where capital is lacking and inefficient.

[bcbgboy13]

Evidence please. And real evidence, not anecdotes.

Every single study that I'm aware of on market timing shows that over the long term no one, or almost no one, can successfully time the market. It really is as simple as that.

Inquiring minds would like to know the origin of funds for that "every single study"

[rfdrfd]

It's great when you look back and point out that "D" was a great buying opportunity

But to be honest, that week in March 2009 (Mar 2-6), how many people actually bought? Although, I guess there had to be enough buyers, in order for the SPY to bottom around 666, then shoot past 800 by March 20

Now, if someone takes your example, and buy in at ~780 (mid-late Feb/09), I'm not sure a stop loss at 680/700 would be unreasonable? So if someone bought in during Feb, there's a good chance their stop position would've been stopped out -- unless, of course, you start buying after the early March lows.

If i had to pick one news item coinciding around that time, I'd say it was the Bernanke interview on 60mins -- although that aired Sunday, March 15 (S&P opened at 759 the next morning)

Its not a matter of how many people bought, to be able to MOVE SPY up like that from a HUGE fall, it takes $$$$$$$$$$. So its actually the institutions (GS, MS, etc) that are buying SPY at that level. So we as little guys with small $, just have to read the charts and learn where Instutitions are buying / selling. We follow.

Yes, if one put a stop there, they may have stopped out. But what just looking left and having a stop isn't the only things OTA teaches us to do. We need tons of other correlating enhancers. then ONLY if the setup makes sense, then one would take it. I just haven't told you guys all the additional info that we look at.

rfdrfd, I think it's great that you have so much conviction and if sticking to your process is working then keep it up! Your posts are getting a bit preachy though and feels like you're trying to force the concept on others. Of course with TA, it works that much better if you can get other people to act on the same signals especially if you get in before them. I jokingly think that's really what OTA is up to - teach people to track patterns that they've already acted upon - all while charging thousands of dollars to make it seem high in educational value.

I try to be objectionable in posting here, but when someone is being rude to my comments when they have zero basis for it, then I bring out the guns. It may look like I'm forcing it upon everyone, but that's up to the reader to interpret my fact and figures. I show real charts with real examples.

Yes, its basically all a self fufilling prophecy. More people doing it = will happen. Your theory logically sounds right, but really, none of the OTA students have enough $ combined to move markets or stocks.

agreed, starting to sound like a sales pitch.
rfdrfd, im actually a firm believer of utilizing TA, even as a fundamentalist, but you're doing a disservice to TA by being this aggressive

while its easy to draw lines going back and see where to buy, typically the range is not that defined when the event is actually happening. what may look like small modifications to the supply/demand lines makes a HUGE difference when your stop is set a few % away.

personally i use TA, but only to supplement other evaluation methods. i would probably not use TA on its own

my beef with relying solely on TA is that its like a text book, and too easy to follow, which implies if it was a superior method on its own, everyone would be doing it, and negate its superiority. my view is that alpha is best delivered over the long run from areas where capital is lacking and inefficient.

Your logic appears to be sound, but the statement of: everyone is doing it = it won't work is incorrect. You need to fact in WHO is doing it. Specifically their account size. TA from OTA's teaching is simply following the big money. If big money is doing it, we little money need to spot it and follow it at the PERFECT time. Ride with the wave.

I haven't told you all the other additions that OTA taught us to use in conjunction with TA, so yes, from my postings alone, you wouldn't think TA would work that much. With all the things together, you will end up with a setup that is: High reward, Low risk, High probability. Those are the 3 main goals/theory of OTA. It works, just takes dedication to learn it.

[FunSave22]

Inquiring minds would like to know the origin of funds for that "every single study"

Most of them are academic studies. Academics receive their funding from various sources.

Of course all of them have been peer reviewed. And if people had problems with any of the methods of the studies, they should point them out. I don't recall this happening.



And besides, why doesn't a school such as OTA pay for their own study? If they could get a peer reviewed study that showed that the majority of OTA graduates outperformed the market, there would be so many people lining up for their courses and they could make a fortune. But they don't bother with that study. I wonder why?