Investing

Termination of NAFTA

  • Last Updated:
  • Apr 30th, 2018 10:46 am
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[OP]
Jr. Member
Oct 21, 2016
132 posts
9 upvotes
So if Trump terminated NAFTA ias im sure Congress republicans will go with him on this one . Ending NAFTA and American protectionism putting their workers American first has populist support in USA. So no need to adjust portfolio ? Go with the flow ?
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May 11, 2014
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Iqaluit, NT
Shaun80 wrote:
Oct 12th, 2017 1:57 pm
So if Trump terminated NAFTA ias im sure Congress republicans will go with him on this one then no need to adjust portfolio ? Go with the flow ?
You are an index investor. Pretty much ignore any news. Intervening is going completely against the strategy.
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Jan 20, 2016
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Shaun80 wrote:
Oct 12th, 2017 1:57 pm
So no need to adjust portfolio ? Go with the flow ?
Short Canadian banks. Guaranteed profit!
Make the Trudeau drama teacher again!
[OP]
Jr. Member
Oct 21, 2016
132 posts
9 upvotes
Ok so just ride out the storm yes I'm.an index investor . So I may have to prepare for a few bad years of Canadian equity but it should rebound once we find new trade partners or agreement with USa perhaps when Trump is gone and a democrat becomes president who will be less protectionist ? Is this kind of what to expect ?
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Nov 13, 2013
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Shaun80 wrote:
Oct 12th, 2017 10:30 am
So if the termination proceeds would you decrease your allocation of your Canadian ETF and or certain Canadian stocks and switch to more American international and emerging markets ?
It will be too late by that point. A complete NAFTA termination could see an immediate 10 cent drop in the CAD and huge fall in Canadian equities. Buying US Indexes now could be a good hedge. You could also overweight to fro example mining or other sectors unaffected by trade with US and that would actually increase in CAD terms.
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Jan 20, 2016
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Houston, TX
fogetmylogin wrote:
Oct 13th, 2017 1:42 am
It will be too late by that point. A complete NAFTA termination could see an immediate 10 cent drop in the CAD
I bet you've made your billions fortune on Forex already?
Make the Trudeau drama teacher again!
Deal Addict
Dec 3, 2014
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Ontario
Instead of looking at this as a negative, i see opportunity. Best case scenario we will have a reformed NAFTA that is more beneficial to US business. I don’t think ther is anyone who would disagree with that. So I think a more productive exercise would be identifying what US companies will benefit from a new NAFTA and positioning oneself accordingly.
Deal Addict
Dec 3, 2014
1185 posts
248 upvotes
Ontario
Further, let’s consider what our exporters will do if NAFTA is removed or amended in a negative way - adapt. We will look to alternative trading partners, whether that is to the Asia pacific region or to Europe. Either way it means we need to get goods and materials to the coasts.

Presumably that is less trucking and more rail.
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Jan 20, 2016
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llpresident wrote:
Oct 15th, 2017 1:12 pm
Instead of looking at this as a negative, i see opportunity. Best case scenario we will have a reformed NAFTA that is more beneficial to US business. I don’t think ther is anyone who would disagree with that. So I think a more productive exercise would be identifying what US companies will benefit from a new NAFTA and positioning oneself accordingly.
Funny part that most of this NAFTA threats could be bluffs. Like this changes to auto manufacturing taxation. There was an article (on Bloombrg?) that for some high-scale production and assemblies going cross borders, sometimes it's "easier" to them pay border tax and being taxed outside NAFTA (due to cheaper price) than make parts in US.
Thus I'd we not surprised if car maker will be not interested in those NAFTA changes after all (I'd distinguish politic bluffing about auto manufacturers needs from real needs of them)
20+ states (including rust belts imo) said AGAINST ripping off NAFTA, at least in part of Canada
Make the Trudeau drama teacher again!
Jr. Member
Aug 22, 2012
139 posts
92 upvotes
Mark Town
It is not the end of bilateral trade after the NAFTA ends. Although I do think that it is possible that the treaty end.

Last year I played with Bexit by loading HSBC at $30. Not only it pays nice dividend, and it is now 60% higher in price.
Deal Addict
Dec 9, 2003
4282 posts
457 upvotes
Calgary
NAFTA termination is terrifying.

A good Prime Minister would stop posturing on softwood, dairy, poultry and Bombardier. Open up telecommunications totally.

Preserve the autopact and energy freedom at all costs.
I apologize for offending sensitivities of alt right, alt left, or anyone in the middle, for humor or perspectives, for my maturity and occasional errors. I apologize for misunderstandings on gender, religion, politics, race or deals.
Deal Addict
Dec 9, 2003
4282 posts
457 upvotes
Calgary
sherwoodRFD wrote:
Oct 16th, 2017 3:29 pm
It is not the end of bilateral trade after the NAFTA ends. Although I do think that it is possible that the treaty end.

Last year I played with Bexit by loading HSBC at $30. Not only it pays nice dividend, and it is now 60% higher in price.
Wow, great advice. You do know HSBC has only been at $30 once since 2009 - so you must be smart to have picked the day. And as for Brexit, you do know that HSBC stands for HongKong Shanghai Banking Corporation? Somewhat international... not a lot related to Brexit....
I apologize for offending sensitivities of alt right, alt left, or anyone in the middle, for humor or perspectives, for my maturity and occasional errors. I apologize for misunderstandings on gender, religion, politics, race or deals.
Jr. Member
Aug 22, 2012
139 posts
92 upvotes
Mark Town
Cough wrote:
Oct 16th, 2017 7:10 pm
Wow, great advice. You do know HSBC has only been at $30 once since 2009 - so you must be smart to have picked the day.
There were quite a few days that one could load the stock at $30.00 exact in the last summer. Even more days if one is willing to pay a little bit more(such as 30.5). Are you sure that you looked up the correct price? (hint: it is not the daily high price).
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Aug 17, 2008
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USDCAD up 100 pips on NAFTA headlines

@LiveSquawk 22 minutes ago
Canada Increasingly Convinced US Pres. Trump Will Shortly Announce US Is Pulling Out Of NAFTA – RTRS Citing 2 Govt Sources
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  • BOC OIS 10Jan18 post NAFTA comment.gif
Last edited by MrMom on Jan 10th, 2018 2:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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