Real Estate

Toronto’s detached house prices make comeback: Report

  • Last Updated:
  • Jul 14th, 2018 12:31 pm
Deal Guru
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Sep 8, 2007
10978 posts
14474 upvotes
Way Out of GTA
elpresidente wrote:
You're just basically saying that all RE owners have gotten lucky. Maybe it was astute investing and willingness to take a risk.
I've never met a rich pessimist. In this case persistent pessimism on RE has resulted in the perma Bears getting priced out. Perma Bulls have done well, very well. After a run like this it's not bad to be neutral and just see where things take us.
rfdchan wrote: cherry picking "news". The problem we have is many of these "news" are from realtors themselves. They will never say anything bad about RE even they are selling themselves.
I've met many realtors who are bearish or cautious. But an echo chamber could produce results that you claim.
TheSinner wrote: That's an unique and unintended takeaway.

I'm curious, since you consider yourself a bull. What would you have to see happen in the market from this point forward to decide NOT to invest in RE? Or would you invest in Toronto real estate under practically all circumstances?

There's a commonality I see with those priced out. It's typically the Toronto Star/CBC reader and claims of woe. When things slowed down last year they were producing all the "builders ripped us off and won't cut the price" hit pieces. It's the same mindset that produces the "baby boomers had it so easy, they were basically given everything for free". Meanwhile there's lots of millennials that did what it took to get in the market and reaping the rewards. Basically if you hang out with negative mindset losers, your outcome will be similar.
Deal Addict
Jan 17, 2006
2496 posts
2740 upvotes
Toronto
TheSinner wrote: Why? Assessment of growing risk and a never-ending search for high returns. Some of us are active investors - not merely folks that buy and hope that luck continues throwing them a bone.

You may be correct that the bull run will last 30 years. It would be unprecedented but there is a first time for everything, right?

If a natural correction does not materialize, you will have made much more money. Your reaction to comments like mine is contradictory since there is nothing be concerned about, according to your view.

It's all business. Never personal. When you mix the two emotions run high.
Is it coincident that your style of writing is similar to one very rich startup founder who entertained us here not long ago .
He was banned and now new active investor newbie popped up.
Sr. Member
Apr 17, 2017
802 posts
590 upvotes
ilim wrote: Is it coincident that your style of writing is similar to one very rich startup founder who entertained us here not long ago .
He was banned and now new active investor newbie popped up.
He doesn't sound like a rich startup founder to me.
Deal Addict
May 9, 2017
1261 posts
1393 upvotes
ilim wrote: Is it coincident that your style of writing is similar to one very rich startup founder who entertained us here not long ago .
He was banned and now new active investor newbie popped up.
Haha poobutt for sure.
Banned
Feb 23, 2009
1670 posts
1496 upvotes
Oshawa
cartfan123 wrote: I've never met a rich pessimist. In this case persistent pessimism on RE has resulted in the perma Bears getting priced out. Perma Bulls have done well, very well. After a run like this it's not bad to be neutral and just see where things take us.



I've met many realtors who are bearish or cautious. But an echo chamber could produce results that you claim.




There's a commonality I see with those priced out. It's typically the Toronto Star/CBC reader and claims of woe. When things slowed down last year they were producing all the "builders ripped us off and won't cut the price" hit pieces. It's the same mindset that produces the "baby boomers had it so easy, they were basically given everything for free". Meanwhile there's lots of millennials that did what it took to get in the market and reaping the rewards. Basically if you hang out with negative mindset losers, your outcome will be similar.
While there are some that are just priced out whiners, a lot of people are really RE Bulls that were buying call options on pre-con RE.
Millennials need to have shiny new RE regardless of quality or value. They feed the pre-con con job by builders.
If we continue with rising rates for the next 18 months. sales and prices continue to be decreasing or flat, we will see more builders lower prices.
Builders are trying not to help tank the market by delaying and taking 2-3yrs to build a house that should take 9 months.
The call holders will be under water and won't be happy.
All the time we have plenty of quality re-sale homes at good value available.
Anybody who bought pre-con in the last 2yrs are not "reaping rewards"...they are praying daily that they don't lose their equity in RE that doesn't exist yet.
Deal Addict
May 9, 2017
1261 posts
1393 upvotes
elpresidente wrote: You're just basically saying that all RE owners have gotten lucky. Maybe it was astute investing and willingness to take a risk.
Maybe it's all three. I personally think the run we've had since 1997 had been pretty remarkable.

I bought in 1999 thinking it was a good decision but I would have never thought we'd see the appreciation in prices that we've seen.
Sr. Member
Apr 17, 2017
802 posts
590 upvotes
pkrash wrote: While there are some that are just priced out whiners, a lot of people are really RE Bulls that were buying call options on pre-con RE.
Millennials need to have shiny new RE regardless of quality or value. They feed the pre-con con job by builders.
If we continue with rising rates for the next 18 months. sales and prices continue to be decreasing or flat, we will see more builders lower prices.
Builders are trying not to help tank the market by delaying and taking 2-3yrs to build a house that should take 9 months.
The call holders will be under water and won't be happy.
All the time we have plenty of quality re-sale homes at good value available.
Anybody who bought pre-con in the last 2yrs are not "reaping rewards"...they are praying daily that they don't lose their equity in RE that doesn't exist yet.
That's an interesting point of view, although not supported by the current data. That version might have held true last year in the months that followed the FBT and Unfair Housing Plan.

The current data shows prices rising and market activity strengthening. Anyone who bought in the last 2 years should be in a good position and I would expect they have growing equity.
Sr. Member
Apr 17, 2017
802 posts
590 upvotes
NotRobot wrote: Maybe it's all three. I personally think the run we've had since 1997 had been pretty remarkable.

I bought in 1999 thinking it was a good decision but I would have never thought we'd see the appreciation in prices that we've seen.
It could carry on for another 20 years
Banned
Feb 23, 2009
1670 posts
1496 upvotes
Oshawa
elpresidente wrote: That's an interesting point of view, although not supported by the current data. That version might have held true last year in the months that followed the FBT and Unfair Housing Plan.

The current data shows prices rising and market activity strengthening. Anyone who bought in the last 2 years should be in a good position and I would expect they have growing equity.
You are wrong and don't understand my post.
My points are all fact and supported by current data.
I was talking about pre-con buyers who are still waiting to take delivery on their RE call option.
By all means, keep spamming and pumping "RE always goes up".
Sr. Member
Apr 17, 2017
802 posts
590 upvotes
pkrash wrote: You are wrong and don't understand my post.
My points are all fact and supported by current data.
I was talking about pre-con buyers who are still waiting to take delivery on their RE call option.
By all means, keep spamming and pumping "RE always goes up".
"You are wrong" lol. Nice way to start a post.

Anyway, how exactly do you know that pre-con buyers are not going to be in a good position? Look at the condos, if you bought one of those a year or two ago, aren't you laughing today? All time highs...
Banned
Feb 23, 2009
1670 posts
1496 upvotes
Oshawa
elpresidente wrote: "You are wrong" lol. Nice way to start a post.

Anyway, how exactly do you know that pre-con buyers are not going to be in a good position? Look at the condos, if you bought one of those a year or two ago, aren't you laughing today? All time highs...
LOL.
It's the only way to start a post when you have misquoted, taken out of context and post wrong information.
You are not laughing if it's not built, you haven't taken delivery and not sold it yet at a profit.
Deal Addict
Mar 13, 2017
1042 posts
1194 upvotes
pkrash wrote: While there are some that are just priced out whiners, a lot of people are really RE Bulls that were buying call options on pre-con RE.
Millennials need to have shiny new RE regardless of quality or value. They feed the pre-con con job by builders.
If we continue with rising rates for the next 18 months. sales and prices continue to be decreasing or flat, we will see more builders lower prices.
Builders are trying not to help tank the market by delaying and taking 2-3yrs to build a house that should take 9 months.
The call holders will be under water and won't be happy.
All the time we have plenty of quality re-sale homes at good value available.
Anybody who bought pre-con in the last 2yrs are not "reaping rewards"...they are praying daily that they don't lose their equity in RE that doesn't exist yet.
Ha. Look at you Rashy, all fancy-shamancy on correlating call options to pre construction.

I don't disagree with you .. that being builders turned up the heat nicely during the last few months of Fomo '17. Good on them .. they had been creating mountains of equity for purchasers for nearly 15+yrs between purchase to closing. Purchasers who dove in Q1 '17 to a cookie-cutter-ville on pure spec deserve to be in pain.

That said, this ain't Florida Swampland where there is endless land to be cleared connected to related urban centre, so even that 'Shwa builder product will run again (you'll look back in 10yrs on what you just sold and say; remember when I sold for X? What was I thinking?) So those buyers who simply needed a roof over their head and don't plan on selling in the near future will be just fine in the long run; more than fine.

And this part about quality/value the 20-somethings have yet to figure out. You're learning ! Good on you Lil' Rashy ! Forgo the new build design center experience for premium land/lot location location location with multiple exits. I'm glad this forum is a good source of education for you. Soon we'll need to call you BullRash !
Sr. Member
Jul 10, 2018
567 posts
588 upvotes
cartfan123 wrote: I've never met a rich pessimist. In this case persistent pessimism on RE has resulted in the perma Bears getting priced out. Perma Bulls have done well, very well. After a run like this it's not bad to be neutral and just see where things take us.

I've met many realtors who are bearish or cautious. But an echo chamber could produce results that you claim.

There's a commonality I see with those priced out. It's typically the Toronto Star/CBC reader and claims of woe. When things slowed down last year they were producing all the "builders ripped us off and won't cut the price" hit pieces. It's the same mindset that produces the "baby boomers had it so easy, they were basically given everything for free". Meanwhile there's lots of millennials that did what it took to get in the market and reaping the rewards. Basically if you hang out with negative mindset losers, your outcome will be similar.
The distinction is realism versus pessimism. Sometimes they overlap so it's easy to conflate the two. The former suggests proceeding with caution when the data calls for it, while the latter is an irrational negative outlook detached from data.

I can't say that I've noticed any pattern in Star/CBC readers but my antennae may not be tuned for it. I take every article with a grain of salt regardless of where it's published. Clickbait headlines are the rule of the day, so the Devil is always in the details.

I do agree with your statement that the company you keep says a lot about you, and does influence your life outcomes.

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