Investing

tradewar-timeto go all cash?

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  • Jun 12th, 2018 9:35 am
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Jr. Member
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Apr 20, 2009
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Ottawa

tradewar-timeto go all cash?

So with all these tariff talks, is time to significantly reduce equity exposure in couch potato portfolio? what are your thoughts??
34 replies
Deal Addict
Jan 14, 2009
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Vancouver, BC
Yes, go all cash. Safest is best.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 15, 2006
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Better go all cash for the next few decades.
Deal Guru
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Dec 7, 2009
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I don't think this is going to get any better soon.

I would consider cryptocurrency for its censorship resistance, immutability, and cross-border seamless transactions.
In a perfect system, corporations would fear the government and the government would fear the people. - David Wong

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Deal Addict
Jul 23, 2007
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111222 wrote:
May 31st, 2018 10:36 pm
So with all these tariff talks, is time to significantly reduce equity exposure in couch potato portfolio? what are your thoughts??
In our CCP portfolios, no planned changes to equity exposure. I stay far away from future predictions and market timing. Any market storms and I just ride through them, as I've always done. As usual, any available cash for investment goes into whatever asset class is lagging. Rebalance the portfolios once a year, that's about it.
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Oct 19, 2016
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what if we have another 2008-2009 like recession.. Do you think you can handle a 50% drop in portfolio value ? Imagine if your portfolio was worth $180,000 ..and then the value drops to $90,000.


Stryker wrote:
Jun 1st, 2018 4:54 am
In our CCP portfolios, no planned changes to equity exposure. I stay far away from future predictions and market timing. Any market storms and I just ride through them, as I've always done. As usual, any available cash for investment goes into whatever asset class is lagging. Rebalance the portfolios once a year, that's about it.
Deal Addict
Oct 21, 2014
1125 posts
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Burlington, ON
Syne wrote:
Jun 1st, 2018 2:55 am
I don't think this is going to get any better soon.

I would consider cryptocurrency for its censorship resistance, immutability, and cross-border seamless transactions.
Not sure why I'm asking, but can you elaborate on what "this" means? Business conditions are great and profitability is very high, these trade spats are just a small obstacle which will be overcome. Remember that equities are a claim on the future and hopefully growing income of a business. Cryptos are a claim on the answer to an arbitrary math problem which hopefully doesn't have the eos vuln. Choose well.
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Jul 23, 2007
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mrtrump wrote:
Jun 1st, 2018 7:46 am
what if we have another 2008-2009 like recession.. Do you think you can handle a 50% drop in portfolio value ? Imagine if your portfolio was worth $180,000 ..and then the value drops to $90,000.
I've sailed mostly invested in equities through the 1987 crash, the early 2000's tech crash, as well as the 2008-09 financial crisis. Whenever I had surplus cash, I was buying, in any market. That didn't make me a great investor, but I personally found that market timing was a complete waste of time.
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Aug 4, 2014
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mrtrump wrote:
Jun 1st, 2018 7:46 am
Imagine if your portfolio was worth $180,000 ..and then the value drops to $90,000.
Is $180,000 enough to retire? What if you went all cash but there’s no crash and instead of having $200,000 and growing it every year ‘till you have enough - you still only have $180,000? :)
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Mar 16, 2010
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Gungnir wrote:
Jun 1st, 2018 8:23 am
Not sure why I'm asking, but can you elaborate on what "this" means? Business conditions are great and profitability is very high, these trade spats are just a small obstacle which will be overcome. Remember that equities are a claim on the future and hopefully growing income of a business. Cryptos are a claim on the answer to an arbitrary math problem which hopefully doesn't have the eos vuln. Choose well.
Only way to pump up a ponzi scheme is to dupe new investors, that's what he really means.

Somehow if we get a recession or whatever the OP is suggesting, people would flock to magic internet money as a safe haven.
Jr. Member
Aug 22, 2012
159 posts
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Mark Town
If you go all cash, you effectively allow government to rob every year using the means of inflation.

US economy is doing very well but not elsewhere. With debts problem showing up in other countries (Turkey, Latin America, Europe and Canada) there will be more money pouring into USA

Prepare for the end of NAFTA - do not put much in Canadian assets...
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Dec 7, 2009
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Gungnir wrote:
Jun 1st, 2018 8:23 am
Not sure why I'm asking, but can you elaborate on what "this" means? Business conditions are great and profitability is very high, these trade spats are just a small obstacle which will be overcome. Remember that equities are a claim on the future and hopefully growing income of a business. Cryptos are a claim on the answer to an arbitrary math problem which hopefully doesn't have the eos vuln. Choose well.
I'm not sure why I'm asking, but the EOS vuln? Can you elaborate on what "this" means? If you mean bugs found in the EOS platform, those aren't at all specific to EOS, and were resolved before they were even widely reported. Can you also tell me what makes 'cryptos' a claim to answer an arbitrary math problem? That all sounds very nice, but the math problems only apply to Proof of Work algorithms, which has nothing to do with EOS.

I don't think cryptos are a panacea, but they do eliminate wide scale human self-interest and emotion from monetary and asset transactions. If there's no trust issue with the data you're sending back and forth, then use a traditional database. If banks could go fully digital, fully automate stock trading and cross-border payments, and eliminate fees to consumers, they might compete. If blockbuster had built a streaming service, they could have competed.
Dpack22 wrote:
Jun 1st, 2018 10:29 am
Only way to pump up a ponzi scheme is to dupe new investors, that's what he really means.

Somehow if we get a recession or whatever the OP is suggesting, people would flock to magic internet money as a safe haven.
It's not only too bad, but I'd go as far as to say ironic, that people have used blockchain as a vehicle for scamming people. The relatively low volume of the trading pairs, combined with the fact you can see the wallets where tokens are held, actually make it a poor choice for PnD or Ponzi schemes. Yet, there was enough exuberance and hype that it was tried anyways, and executed rather poorly. The growing pains of a new asset class.

With ICOs, we are seeing a move to DAICOs, longer vesting terms to guarantee main net launches, legal frameworks, and more passive funding models emerge. It won't be nearly as exciting, but it will be legitimate and more accessible to regular people.

In contrast, here is a picture from my RBC Direct Investing account. About 8 months ago, I put $50 in. They took 7% in fees. Still, my marijuana stock is up 35%. That's great returns! But uh.. what's up with my balance?

Image
In a perfect system, corporations would fear the government and the government would fear the people. - David Wong

Check out caRpetbomBer's picks in this thread.
Member
Oct 27, 2014
455 posts
374 upvotes
Toronto, ON
Syne wrote:
Jun 1st, 2018 12:25 pm
I'm not sure why I'm asking, but the EOS vuln? Can you elaborate on what "this" means? If you mean bugs found in the EOS platform, those aren't at all specific to EOS, and were resolved before they were even widely reported. Can you also tell me what makes 'cryptos' a claim to answer an arbitrary math problem? That all sounds very nice, but the math problems only apply to Proof of Work algorithms, which has nothing to do with EOS.

I don't think cryptos are a panacea, but they do eliminate wide scale human self-interest and emotion from monetary and asset transactions. If there's no trust issue with the data you're sending back and forth, then use a traditional database. If banks could go fully digital, fully automate stock trading and cross-border payments, and eliminate fees to consumers, they might compete. If blockbuster had built a streaming service, they could have competed.



It's not only too bad, but I'd go as far as to say ironic, that people have used blockchain as a vehicle for scamming people. The relatively low volume of the trading pairs, combined with the fact you can see the wallets where tokens are held, actually make it a poor choice for PnD or Ponzi schemes. Yet, there was enough exuberance and hype that it was tried anyways, and executed rather poorly. The growing pains of a new asset class.

With ICOs, we are seeing a move to DAICOs, longer vesting terms to guarantee main net launches, legal frameworks, and more passive funding models emerge. It won't be nearly as exciting, but it will be legitimate and more accessible to regular people.

In contrast, here is a picture from my RBC Direct Investing account. About 8 months ago, I put $50 in. They took 7% in fees. Still, my marijuana stock is up 35%. That's great returns! But uh.. what's up with my balance?

Image
How did you even manage to open an investing account with only $50?
Deal Addict
Oct 21, 2014
1125 posts
1144 upvotes
Burlington, ON
Syne wrote:
Jun 1st, 2018 12:25 pm
I'm not sure why I'm asking, but the EOS vuln? Can you elaborate on what "this" means? If you mean bugs found in the EOS platform, those aren't at all specific to EOS, and were resolved before they were even widely reported. Can you also tell me what makes 'cryptos' a claim to answer an arbitrary math problem? That all sounds very nice, but the math problems only apply to Proof of Work algorithms, which has nothing to do with EOS.

I don't think cryptos are a panacea, but they do eliminate wide scale human self-interest and emotion from monetary and asset transactions. If there's no trust issue with the data you're sending back and forth, then use a traditional database. If banks could go fully digital, fully automate stock trading and cross-border payments, and eliminate fees to consumers, they might compete. If blockbuster had built a streaming service, they could have competed.



It's not only too bad, but I'd go as far as to say ironic, that people have used blockchain as a vehicle for scamming people. The relatively low volume of the trading pairs, combined with the fact you can see the wallets where tokens are held, actually make it a poor choice for PnD or Ponzi schemes. Yet, there was enough exuberance and hype that it was tried anyways, and executed rather poorly. The growing pains of a new asset class.

With ICOs, we are seeing a move to DAICOs, longer vesting terms to guarantee main net launches, legal frameworks, and more passive funding models emerge. It won't be nearly as exciting, but it will be legitimate and more accessible to regular people.

In contrast, here is a picture from my RBC Direct Investing account. About 8 months ago, I put $50 in. They took 7% in fees. Still, my marijuana stock is up 35%. That's great returns! But uh.. what's up with my balance?

Image
The EOS blockchain has a major problem, sorry considering how much you write about crypto I would have thought you knew. Contrary to your belief, as of this writing the known vulnerabilities they're not all patched, just the "major" ones, inspires a lot of confidence doesn't it, lol.

As for cryptos removing human self interest from financial transactions, I must respond with teh lols. Then more lols. Bitcoin has transaction fees..

As for your $50 investment, uh, you should't buy $50 worth of stock if that's what you did, the transaction fee with eat most of your money. But what else is there to say but; Hey hey hey! What am I a going to do? BiiiiiiiiiiitCONNNNECT! I'll sit this one out and collect dividends, thanks.
Deal Guru
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Dec 7, 2009
13791 posts
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Gungnir wrote:
Jun 1st, 2018 1:13 pm
The EOS blockchain has a major problem, sorry considering how much you write about crypto I would have thought you knew. Contrary to your belief, as of this writing the known vulnerabilities they're not all patched, just the "major" ones, inspires a lot of confidence doesn't it, lol.
Why didn't you ask me, rather than try to tell me about something I obviously know more about? This is the CTO directly addressing the problem to his Telegram audience. Notice I didn't rely on a 3rd party to do my research for me. I went directly to Dan Larimer.

Image

If you're looking for bug-free software, I'd refer you to some parallel universe, because all code has bugs and vulnerabilities.
As for cryptos removing human self interest from financial transactions, I must respond with teh lols. Then more lols. Bitcoin has transaction fees..
There is interest in keeping the network running, but miners (or block producers in PoS) have no incentive to double spend, inflate the supply, or counterfeit.. and if you're moving assets or property across the blockchain, the network providers' only interest, providing no one person controls 51% or more of the network, is fidelity. You can't collude with a smart contract. You can't conspire with a zero-knowledge proof.
As for your $50 investment, uh, you should't buy $50 worth of stock if that's what you did, the transaction fee with eat most of your money. But what else is there to say but; Hey hey hey! What am I a going to do? BiiiiiiiiiiitCONNNNECT! I'll sit this one out and collect dividends, thanks.
That's my point though. If I only have $50 to invest, why can't I invest in something without owing more than my initial capital in fees to someone else? Traditional banking is inefficient, full of expensive brokerage costs, and the assets themselves are so entrenched in the 'greater fool' theory, that the generational transfer of wealth depends on boomers passing these dinosaur assets down to their kids. That's why there's a bunch of emotional 30-somethings interested in the status quo. It's not that they're necessarily incurious, they just have a lot to lose.
In a perfect system, corporations would fear the government and the government would fear the people. - David Wong

Check out caRpetbomBer's picks in this thread.

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