Investing

Trading idea- Based on Graham (TSX)

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  • Aug 19th, 2017 10:36 pm
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Mar 24, 2008
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You should subtract dividends from your returns to do a proper comparison. It has only been two years, this proves nothing yet. BTW, if you think 7.42% annualized return from this portfolio is 3 times what TSX returned over the same time, you are delusional.
Illegitimi non carborundum
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ksgill wrote:
Mar 19th, 2017 2:07 pm
You should subtract dividends from your returns to do a proper comparison. It has only been two years, this proves nothing yet.
Hey I have a proof that "buying index ETFs on the dips" beats both! lol I started buying ZCN in my husband's TFSA near its high in March'15, doubled-down during September'15 correction, added some more near February'16 low - and voilà, 10.37% return with a DRIP! Face With Tears Of Joy

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freilona wrote:
Mar 19th, 2017 1:58 pm
This is what I'm personally struggling with. Say we're adding ~20K to our non-reg account per year in a few tranches. I can buy 3-4 stocks and pay $5 in commissions for each - or buy HXT for free (we're with Questrade) and pay $6 per 20K, or $14 after the rebate is over:

0.07% REBATED BY 0.04% TO AN EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT FEE OF 0.03%, UNTIL AT LEAST SEPTEMBER 30, 2017 (PLUS APPLICABLE SALES TAX)

Or, with a bit more work to track RoC, buy XIC or ZCN with 0.06% MER...

Sorry, wrong thread, as I'm talking about building a longer-term buy and hold portfolio, not trading following the model (where trading fees vs MERs would be even higher though..)
A low-cost brokerage like IB or VB charges $0.01 per share ($1 minimum fee in IB). The more money you have in ETFs, the more is the dollar amount you pay in MER. It adds up. It could be working for you, instead of the ETF company.

When trading, the expectation is to beat to market, so the commission is a small cost to allow such performance. The live performance accounts for a fixed commission of $6.95. So anyone with VB or IB would be having a higher performance than what is posted.

Rod
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ksgill wrote:
Mar 19th, 2017 2:07 pm
You should subtract dividends from your returns to do a proper comparison. It has only been two years, this proves nothing yet. BTW, if you think 7.42% annualized return from this portfolio is 3 times what TSX returned over the same time, you are delusional.
No, I should add dividends to the index for a proper comparison. 7.46% is 2.85 times the 2.6% annual return from XIC since model inception (so almost 3 times like I said). One doesn't invest in XIC alone only, most are Counch Potato. A more accurate comparison would be with Couch Potato performance (dividends included) since model's inception (I haven't calculated it). However, we'd be comparing performance of apples and oranges, since Couch Potato is for long term investment, and this is trading focusing on short term profits and minimizing drawdowns - factors that Couch Potato doesn't care.

Rod
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rodbarc wrote:
Mar 19th, 2017 3:58 pm
No, I should add dividends to the index for a proper comparison. 7.46% is 2.85 times the 2.6% annual return from XIC since model inception (so almost 3 times like I said). One doesn't invest in XIC alone only, most are Counch Potato. A more accurate comparison would be with Couch Potato performance (dividends included) since model's inception (I haven't calculated it). However, we'd be comparing performance of apples and oranges, since Couch Potato is for long term investment, and this is trading focusing on short term profits and minimizing drawdowns - factors that Couch Potato doesn't care.

Rod
Aggressive couch potato portfolio has returned ~9.0% annualized over the last 2-3 years, more if you invest in USD ETFs such as VTI. Check your facts, here are returns for the last year:

http://www.moneysense.ca/save/investing ... urns-2016/

3 year annualized returns are 9.86% as found here: https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&source=w ... rAex6XJiXw

Not sure what you are smoking :lol:
Illegitimi non carborundum
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ksgill wrote:
Mar 19th, 2017 4:04 pm
Aggressive couch potato portfolio has returned ~9.0% annualized over the last 2-3 years, more if you invest in USD ETFs such as VTI. Check your facts, here are returns for the last year:

http://www.moneysense.ca/save/investing ... urns-2016/

3 year annualized returns are 9.86% as found here: https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&source=w ... rAex6XJiXw

Not sure what you are smoking :lol:
You mentioned XIC returned 2.6% annualized since model's inception. I'm saying the model returned 2.85 times that annualized in the same period. That's a fair comparison since the model doesn't invest outside of Canada, and therefore, cannot count on currency appreciation to improve results. My question was for Couch Potato returns from Feb 2015 to today.

The model is not 3 years old. But simulation for the last 3 years shows annualized 13% return - makes sense to do better because it holds no fixed income. We'll find out how it holds as the model gets there.

There's little value comparing the performance of Couch Potato with any trading model, since their goals and driving factors for results are completely different. But both take very little work to implement.


Rod
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rodbarc wrote:
Mar 19th, 2017 4:38 pm
My question was for Couch Potato returns from Feb 2015 to today.
I started my husband's Couch-Potato-ish TFSA in Feb'15. VFV, XEF, ZCN and two strip bonds in lieu of VAB. 17.8% 1 year, 8.3% Since Inception. Mind you, his RRSP with individual stocks is 25.2% and 12.3% - and my accounts had a mixed performance (initially all Canadian stocks TFSA is still underperformer, but has gotten better after I added XAW and ZPR to it :))

Anyways, I think I got my mind made up - good luck to all with their investments! :)
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March 20, 2017 signal:

Buy: RCH

The model will be 90% invested in stocks and 10% in cash after today's rebalance.

Rod
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Aug 2, 2015
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Hey Rod, I might be reading it wrong but are we selling SJ?
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wussok wrote:
Mar 20th, 2017 9:23 am
Hey Rod, I might be reading it wrong but are we selling SJ?
No, we're just buying RCH. I didn't post anything about selling SJ.

Rod
Newbie
Aug 17, 2013
20 posts
Carleton Place
Hi Rod,
I`m probably missing something. I see SJ at a ranking of 65.9. Why was a sell signal (< 80) not triggered?
Thank you.
L.
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dukeluke wrote:
Mar 20th, 2017 1:18 pm
Hi Rod,
I`m probably missing something. I see SJ at a ranking of 65.9. Why was a sell signal (< 80) not triggered?
Thank you.
L.
Has to hold for 4 weeks to consider selling.
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Sep 4, 2007
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Rod,

For SJ, the buy signal was issued 3/6.

At this point, do you foresee it will be dropped come 4/3 or 4/10? SJ dropped from 41.25 to 39.39 closing today.

Or buy the dip?
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dvd5 wrote:
Mar 20th, 2017 9:01 pm
Rod,

For SJ, the buy signal was issued 3/6.

At this point, do you foresee it will be dropped come 4/3 or 4/10? SJ dropped from 41.25 to 39.39 closing today.

Or buy the dip?
My name's not Rod, but I figured I'd put in my 2¢. Disclaimer: I'm nowhere near as experienced and am learning the ropes. I bought the dip at $40 this morning.

To answer the first Q, if the ranking sticks at 65 right now, I'd say it's pretty likely the portfolio will drop SJ on 4/3.

As for buying the dip, take a look at their Q4 earnings that got posted. Their Q4 had softer net income than expected given their growth rate, but overall SJ is growing revenue and earnings over the past several years. If you're not following the portfolio's exact transactions, and you're happy with their financial sheet, then this could be a good opportunity to start a position.

I apologize if you specifically wanted Rod's opinion, which I hope I don't deter him from providing one.

Edit: I should add that I don't have access to fancy tools like FAST graphs.

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