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Twitter- The Most Undervalued Tech stock ever.

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Dec 11, 2005
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mathiewannabe wrote: I'm calling $25 by end of Q2 2016.
Based on... ?

- User engagement is dropping like a rock as people leave the platform in droves

- Even if you presumed that they could keep their audience, they still havent figured out how to monetize it efficiently.

Its a real shame because at the beginning I thought in TWTR vs FB, TWTR had the more easily monitization strategy, in charging companies for premium accounts and sponsored tweets. But this never seemed to make a dent.

I honestly think they will get acquired by Salesforce. Salesforce can afford it, and there are very obvious synergies here, especially when you consider their social media arm. Salesforce can probably monetize twitter better than Twitter themselves.
To be nobody but yourself - in a world which is doing its best, night and day, to make you everybody else - means to fight the hardest battle which any human being can fight; and never stop fighting. -- E. E. Cummings
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brunes wrote: Based on... ?

- User engagement is dropping like a rock as people leave the platform in droves

- Even if you presumed that they could keep their audience, they still havent figured out how to monetize it efficiently.

Its a real shame because at the beginning I thought in TWTR vs FB, TWTR had the more easily monitization strategy, in charging companies for premium accounts and sponsored tweets. But this never seemed to make a dent.

I honestly think they will get acquired by Salesforce. Salesforce can afford it, and there are very obvious synergies here, especially when you consider their social media arm. Salesforce can probably monetize twitter better than Twitter themselves.
Based on?
Salesforce is too poor to buy twtr. twtr will ask for at least 20B valuation as an M&A target.
only likely buyers are google, fb, apple - i.e. companies with tons of cash, which salesforce isn't.

1. From Q3 -> Q4, they went from 307M to 305M. So you think it'll go down even more? maybe the word you're looking for is stagnate but my guess is that it'll have modest user growth at least for Q1. CFO said MAU level bounced back to Q3 level in january. i'll interpolate and estimate 310M MAU for Q1.

2. Have you seen their revenue growth?

it could be a takeover target, but it's not going to be salesforce. maybe in your dreams.
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Dec 11, 2005
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mathiewannabe wrote: Based on?
Salesforce is too poor to buy twtr. twtr will ask for at least 20B valuation as an M&A target.
only likely buyers are google, fb, apple - i.e. companies with tons of cash, which salesforce isn't.

1. From Q3 -> Q4, they went from 307M to 305M. So you think it'll go down even more? maybe the word you're looking for is stagnate but my guess is that it'll have modest user growth at least for Q1. CFO said MAU level bounced back to Q3 level in january. i'll interpolate and estimate 310M MAU for Q1.

2. Have you seen their revenue growth?

it could be a takeover target, but it's not going to be salesforce. maybe in your dreams.
You don't need cash to do a takeover especially if it is friendly. I see a stock swap happening as TWTR approaches a market cap in the 5B - 7B range
To be nobody but yourself - in a world which is doing its best, night and day, to make you everybody else - means to fight the hardest battle which any human being can fight; and never stop fighting. -- E. E. Cummings
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brunes wrote: You don't need cash to do a takeover especially if it is friendly. I see a stock swap happening as TWTR approaches a market cap in the 5B - 7B range
it's 12B right now. if you see it going to 5B-7B, you should short it.

salesforce is such a far fetched choice for an acquirer that i'd say that it's more likely that twtr have a larger market cap than salesforce in 1-2 year timeframe.
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mathiewannabe wrote: it's 12B right now. if you see it going to 5B-7B, you should short it.

salesforce is such a far fetched choice for an acquirer that i'd say that it's more likely that twtr have a larger market cap than salesforce in 1-2 year timeframe.
I do indeed see it going to that. The users are leaving in droves, and in this part of the tech sector, that is all that matters at the end of the day.
To be nobody but yourself - in a world which is doing its best, night and day, to make you everybody else - means to fight the hardest battle which any human being can fight; and never stop fighting. -- E. E. Cummings
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brunes wrote: I do indeed see it going to that. The users are leaving in droves, and in this part of the tech sector, that is all that matters at the end of the day.
Even if it happens like you say, I would not have salesforce as a potential acquirer. There are way too many giants in the space.
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Nov 5, 2001
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ksgill wrote: That tells me that they don't want to even touch it with a 10 foot pole. Just because you don't think a company is good doesn't mean you have to short it. I buy broad market indices so I own a small portion of Twitter, I still think it's a crap stock. Unfortunately, my investing strategy (index) and the securities I hold don't allow me to pick and choose.
This hits the nail on the head.

While Twitter isn't going to implode and become useless and gathered up for scraps like Myspace, it's usefulness is very limited, and it has never expanded beyond its original successful model.

As a result the allure of the application and desirability as an investment vehicle is waning.

The company isn't a $0 rock, but there are far more sensible investment plays out there these days. Companies people like are being rewarded with increased stock value in the downs and ups recently, and comapnies people don't like anymore are being punished.


Twitter is one of the latter, and will continue to fall before being swallowed up by another company at a fraction of a $10-12b valuation in a year or so.


Those drawing comparisons with Apple and Facebook are missing the point. Twitter hasn't evolved from their original use.

Apple developed and introduced multiple products and software services and dominates with a large share of the premium mobile market and streaming services.

Facebook evolved from a basic social portal to a gaming platform, media and news service, and even a viable advertising utility.


Twitter is hobbled to 140 character blasts of uselessness. I never used my account for anything other than retweeting promotional material for credit.
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blainehamilton wrote: This hits the nail on the head.

While Twitter isn't going to implode and become useless and gathered up for scraps like Myspace, it's usefulness is very limited, and it has never expanded beyond its original successful model.

As a result the allure of the application and desirability as an investment vehicle is waning.

The company isn't a $0 rock, but there are far more sensible investment plays out there these days. Companies people like are being rewarded with increased stock value in the downs and ups recently, and comapnies people don't like anymore are being punished.


Twitter is one of the latter, and will continue to fall before being swallowed up by another company at a fraction of a $10-12b valuation in a year or so.


Those drawing comparisons with Apple and Facebook are missing the point. Twitter hasn't evolved from their original use.

Apple developed and introduced multiple products and software services and dominates with a large share of the premium mobile market and streaming services.

Facebook evolved from a basic social portal to a gaming platform, media and news service, and even a viable advertising utility.


Twitter is hobbled to 140 character blasts of uselessness. I never used my account for anything other than retweeting promotional material for credit.
and once they allow you to use unlimited characters, post videos and images and invite friends to groups... they will be a facebook clone............ lool
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blainehamilton wrote: Those drawing comparisons with Apple and Facebook are missing the point. Twitter hasn't evolved from their original use.

Apple developed and introduced multiple products and software services and dominates with a large share of the premium mobile market and streaming services.

Facebook evolved from a basic social portal to a gaming platform, media and news service, and even a viable advertising utility.
you're missing the point - the question is, is it too late?
We're all aware of what apple/facebook did to become where they're now.
A good execution and management is what happened at apple and facebook.
they don't just happen by themselves - someone had a vision, a roadmap.

i'm big on people running the companies.
If steve jobs died in 2003, or zuckerburg died in 2012 right after ipo, would the companies themselves have achieved a similar result on their own?
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mathiewannabe wrote: you're missing the point - the question is, is it too late?
We're all aware of what apple/facebook did to become where they're now.
A good execution and management is what happened at apple and facebook.
they don't just happen by themselves - someone had a vision, a roadmap.

i'm big on people running the companies.
If steve jobs died in 2003, or zuckerburg died in 2012 right after ipo, would the companies themselves have achieved a similar result on their own?
It was a combination of market, product and application with the right timing that worked for both Apple and Facebook.

Twitter hasn't added any meaningful improvements to its product, the application is very narrow and limited, and have totally missed increasing market share by not enhancing its usefulness.

In terms of timing Twitter is past its heyday, and is on the slow decline to oblivion. Much like myspace.
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blainehamilton wrote: It was a combination of market, product and application with the right timing that worked for both Apple and Facebook.

Twitter hasn't added any meaningful improvements to its product, the application is very narrow and limited, and have totally missed increasing market share by not enhancing its usefulness.

In terms of timing Twitter is past its heyday, and is on the slow decline to oblivion. Much like myspace.
Maybe back it up by actually shorting it, buying puts or writing calls.
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TWTR $25 by July.

are bears shorting or buying puts ? :)
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mathiewannabe wrote: TWTR $25 by July.

are bears shorting or buying puts ? :)
hope you bought when it was at 15.
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Jan 16, 2009
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daivey wrote: hope you bought when it was at 15.
It is back to 15 now.
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Jun 15, 2012
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Saskatoon
I don't have tweeter account
I have no idea why would I need one
To waste my time ?
No need to type thank you; upvote=thanks.
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Oct 20, 2011
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jackjia wrote: With 300 Million MAUS
57% YOY revenue growth.

Probably the only tech stock that manage to rage gap fill the POST ER 12% Dip by making back the entire drop in the next day.

Helf well at the 29.00 support line. Great entry point.

Linkedin with only 100 million MAU is currently 1.6X the market cap.

This is facebook when it was $18 a share. And the price entry point can not get better than this.

But hey, who am to say right? Do some research in the growth in revenue and new exec team and you will be as confident as I am. I have been on the sidelines for two years and finally saw a good value for entry around $27 per share.
Guess he was wrong
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Dec 23, 2010
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Moon
Not going to buy any. I feel the company is too stupid to improve and turn things around.
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Oct 9, 2008
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Like I've said previously if you're interested in a struggling tech company, Yahoo is a far greater choice in terms of risk/reward. It's stock price has literally been valued at 0 for it's core assets for quite some time and is only being valued for it's stake in Ali Baba and Yahoo Japan. Buyout interest seems pretty high as well from all suitors.
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YO where are all the TWITTER PUMPERS??

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