Real Estate

Vancouver housing bubble?

  • Last Updated:
  • Feb 14th, 2020 9:54 am
Tags:
None
Banned
User avatar
Feb 15, 2008
26318 posts
3201 upvotes
Calgary
sirex wrote: In any case mortgage brokers and real estate agents spew a lot of lies and deception. They have to because if they don't, they wont get any business.
Yes, this is very disturbing. Canadians who want to sell securities have to take a long course, comply with "Know Your Client" rules, and are extremely limited on what they can tell potential investors about their business prospects. Anything that is misleading in a prospectus can score a lawsuit, or worse, a criminal prosecution by the OSC for securities fraud.

Yet real estate, heck, the Donnie740 and gomyone's of the world can make pie-in-the-sky projects of cashflow, future financing costs, and even give opinions on the future maintenance costs of a building (without possessing a license to practice engineering, no less), facing almost no chance of prosecution. Donnie740's posts to this very forum, about the investment prospects of a certain RE project, even missed a huge factor about RE that is large enough to drive a bus through, and that is depreciation. I don't think Donnie740 even understands the concept of depreciation.

Talk about a double standard!
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
Banned
User avatar
Feb 15, 2008
26318 posts
3201 upvotes
Calgary
Where do you think we are right now? Somewhere between "New Paradigm" and "Denial"?

In the US I believe they're basically at "Return to 'normal'" since interest rates have not come anywhere near "Return to the mean" levels.
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
Banned
User avatar
Feb 15, 2008
26318 posts
3201 upvotes
Calgary
Terrific_Deals2k8 wrote: We are at the Bull Trap or Return to "Normal" phase/
Why not "Denial"? After all, that's what seems to be in this thread in spades from the RE bull crowd.
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
[OP]
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Dec 3, 2004
5109 posts
3544 upvotes
Vancouver
Mark77 wrote: Its not my fault that you're too ***** to understand the argument, or worse, have chosen to use my statement of facts as some sort of flamebait by implying that there is something defective about individuals who have been affected by a very depressed economy in their particular profession.
then let's hope he chooses a different ending than the one in the movie once the RE market plunges and Bentall goes bankrupt. Unfortunately, many people may in fact choose that ending. At least they did in the US.

Increase Seen in U.S. Suicide Rate Since Recession
New York Times wrote:In the report, which appeared Sunday on the Web site of The Lancet, a medical journal, researchers found that the rate between 2008 and 2010 increased four times faster than it did in the eight years before the recession. The rate had been increasing by an average of 0.12 deaths per 100,000 people from 1999 through 2007. In 2008, the rate began increasing by an average of 0.51 deaths per 100,000 people a year. Without the increase in the rate, the total deaths from suicide each year in the United States would have been lower by about 1,500, the study said.
Of course one can argue that was a recession and not just a housing bubble. Stocks were crashing, people were losing their life savings. However, I believe that housing and the canadian economy are so intertwined that if the housing market crashes it will probably put Canada into a recession with unemployment rates soaring. Note, this is different than high unemployment and a recession causing a housing crash... it's the other way around.
Jr. Member
Aug 3, 2010
154 posts
13 upvotes
Vancouver
Mark77 wrote: Yes, this is very disturbing. Canadians who want to sell securities have to take a long course, comply with "Know Your Client" rules, and are extremely limited on what they can tell potential investors about their business prospects. Anything that is misleading in a prospectus can score a lawsuit, or worse, a criminal prosecution by the OSC for securities fraud.

Yet real estate, heck, the Donnie740 and gomyone's of the world can make pie-in-the-sky projects of cashflow, future financing costs, and even give opinions on the future maintenance costs of a building (without possessing a license to practice engineering, no less), facing almost no chance of prosecution. Donnie740's posts to this very forum, about the investment prospects of a certain RE project, even missed a huge factor about RE that is large enough to drive a bus through, and that is depreciation. I don't think Donnie740 even understands the concept of depreciation.

Talk about a double standard!
The requirements to sell mutual funds, which account for a large portion of Canadian's investments in the stock market, are very low.
Banned
User avatar
Feb 15, 2008
26318 posts
3201 upvotes
Calgary
adamtheman wrote: All I can think of when I see the word obtuse is Shawshank Redemption. And... if Gomyone is the warden... then let's hope he chooses a different ending than the one in the movie once the RE market plunges and Bentall goes bankrupt. Unfortunately, many people may in fact choose that ending. At least they did in the US.

Increase Seen in U.S. Suicide Rate Since Recession
Yes, very unfortunate, but certainly some of this increase has been driven not only by declining house prices and econonomic activity, but also through the increasing theme that hard work and intelligence, will, generally speaking, get a person nowhere in the US economy these days.

Of course having folks like gomyone, who would gladly tie one's hands behind their back and then laugh as they fall into the water and drown (or do the same economically), certainly doesn't help matters. Almost a trillion dollars re-directed by the CMHC from projects that are judged by the market to be economically worthy, towards housing, has left a wide swath of Canadians and Canadian businesses under-utilized and starving for capital. The entire system of capital rationing has been subverted by the CMHC, significantly damaging economic growth.
Of course one can argue that was a recession and not just a housing bubble. Stocks were crashing, people were losing their life savings. However, I believe that housing and the canadian economy are so intertwined that if the housing market crashes it will probably put Canada into a recession with unemployment rates soaring. Note, this is different than high unemployment and a recession causing a housing crash... it's the other way around.
Of course, it goes without saying that overcapacity in the housing industry will likely cause severe damage. Housing was cyclical enough even before the government made the problem even worse through the CMHC.
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
Banned
User avatar
Feb 15, 2008
26318 posts
3201 upvotes
Calgary
JuanExprales wrote: The requirements to sell mutual funds, which account for a large portion of Canadian's investments in the stock market, are very low.
Mutual fund dealers are extremely limited on the representations they can make to clients as well. Ever read all the fine print? And they have all of the "Know Your Client" stuff as well. While Realtors and their mortgage brokers, they can sell naïve new Canadians RE on 5% down CMHC programs and even represent the CMHC with terms like "the government wants you to have a house", and other sorts of nonsense.

How many Canadians have been misled by their Realtors or mortgage brokers, to believe that mortgages are effectively non-recourse in Canada? How many have been given advice along the lines that interest rates can't triple/quadruple/quintuple/sextuple over the term of their amortization? (either explicitly, or through omission of such scenarios from any calculations offered up of affordability)
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
Deal Addict
User avatar
Apr 2, 2007
1330 posts
385 upvotes
Toronto
Data for the first three weeks (April 2013 versus April 2012) - keep in mind that we had 14 working days in 2013 versus 13 working days in 2012
It is based on the daily Vancouver RE sales courtesy of the popular Vancouver RE agent Rob Chipman

[IMG]http://img829.imageshack.us/img829/5383 ... irst3w.jpg[/IMG]

And this is from the REBGV report for April 2012:
[QUOTE]The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver reached 2,799 on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in April 2012. This represents a 13.2 per cent decline compared to the 3,225 sales recorded in April 2011 and a decline of 2.6 per cent compared to the 2,874 sales in March 2012.

April sales were the lowest total for the month in the region since 2001 and 16.9 per cent below the 10-year April sales average of 3,369.[/QUOTE]

April 2012 sales were "lowest total for the month in the region since 2001" and we are running now with 8.3% lower that the "lowest since 2001" (and with one working day more in the dataset for 2013) - It definitely looks like a great start to that booming spring season.

Shockingly the just released Stats Canada retail sales for Feb.2013 shows declines both for m/m (Feb.2013/Jan.2013) and yoy (Feb2013/Feb2012) - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidie ... 01-eng.htm
My work here is done - [IMG]http://pbs.twimg.com/media/Au7PTwsCIAAu7G_.jpg[/IMG]
SOFT Landing - [IMG]http://i50.tinypic.com/14ilmqt.jpg[/IMG]
Bonus parade Can banks - here - with "No banker left behind"
Les États-Désunis du Canada - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LpDRg7TLY8c
Deal Addict
User avatar
Nov 23, 2010
2505 posts
571 upvotes
:!: Warning - bickering and insults will cease or there will be temp bans given out. Enough is enough, discuss the issue and defend your point of view without attacking or insulting each other - pretty simple concept! :!:
For all community related matters, please PM TomRFD
[OP]
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Dec 3, 2004
5109 posts
3544 upvotes
Vancouver
bcbgboy13 wrote: Data for the first three weeks (April 2013 versus April 2012) - keep in mind that we had 14 working days in 2013 versus 13 working days in 2012
It is based on the daily Vancouver RE sales courtesy of the popular Vancouver RE agent Rob Chipman

[IMG]http://img829.imageshack.us/img829/5383 ... irst3w.jpg[/IMG]

And this is from the REBGV report for April 2012:


April 2012 sales were "lowest total for the month in the region since 2001" and we are running now with 8.3% lower that the "lowest since 2001" (and with one working day more in the dataset for 2013) - It definitely looks like a great start to that booming spring season.

Shockingly the just released Stats Canada retail sales for Feb.2013 shows declines both for m/m (Feb.2013/Jan.2013) and yoy (Feb2013/Feb2012) - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidie ... 01-eng.htm
We're getting into the "rough" comparison months from 2012 now. As you quoted, April 2012 had the lowest # of sales for the month since 2001. So for sales to come in even lower than 2012 means we will see a 12 year record low sales number this April. When sales are at a 12 year low, it must take guts to defend the RE market...
Jr. Member
Oct 1, 2006
143 posts
18 upvotes
toronto
It would be funny if april saw a record low in sales but prices went up.
Deal Addict
May 30, 2012
3612 posts
909 upvotes
Montreal
oranr wrote: :!: Warning - bickering and insults will cease or there will be temp bans given out. Enough is enough, discuss the issue and defend your point of view without attacking or insulting each other - pretty simple concept! :!:
unless you lock this thread..nothing will change....just like the market....
Banned
User avatar
Jul 16, 2003
10398 posts
1464 upvotes
Toronto
I think we could at least merge all 8 threads about the so called "crash."
Andre Oliveira - Mortgage Agent
Mortgage Intelligence - FSCO# 10428

Top