Real Estate

Vancouver housing bubble?

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  • Nov 13th, 2019 1:48 pm
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adamtheman wrote:
Jun 23rd, 2012 9:40 pm
. Keep in mind, TD relies on mortgages and high prices benefit them.
No, I won't "keep that in mind". Because banks definitely can benefit from lower prices and foreclosures as I have shown. Plus money that isn't invested in housing, can be invested in other things that often provide good returns for the banks.
TodayHello wrote:
Oct 16th, 2012 9:06 pm
...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
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Wow, it really is all over. Oh well, at least it was a fun ride while it lasted.

Housing in the future probably won't even keep up with inflation (after the inevitable 60-70% crash). In fact it will probably devalue property by the same amount as inflation is increasing every year.
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JK400 wrote:
Jun 23rd, 2012 9:48 pm
Housing in the future probably won't even keep up with inflation (after the inevitable 60-70% crash).
Why not? Over the long term, housing must keep up with inflation because inflation impacts replacement costs.

The problem we face today is largely because housing, due almost entirely to changes in our financial system and the massive amount of credit expansion not warranted by the growth in the economy, was propped up to prices far in excess of those implied by inflation. This stimulated massive new supply, which will probably give rise to "an inevitable 60-70% crash".
TodayHello wrote:
Oct 16th, 2012 9:06 pm
...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
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Oct 7, 2007
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Hi Adamtheman,

Great idea to start this thread as I think it will be an interesting discussion topic for quite some time. Unfortunately, most of the discussion so far has not included much supporting data which makes it difficult to separate fact from opinion. And with the level of investment required to participate in the Vancouver real estate market, vested parties will have no shortage of opinions. I have taken the data from the original post and graphed to see the trend more clearly but was unable to post due to technical difficulties. I am interested in using this data and what we know to forecast future price levels to see if and when the 50% correction might actually occur.
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Nov 27, 2006
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Engi-Nir wrote:
Jun 23rd, 2012 6:48 pm
The good news is, every USA company that closes in canada, moves back to states...given the trend, hopefully, Canada becomes a third world country soon enough.

No Mr America, I need that salary cause everything in Canada is expensive.

Sorry, Mr Canada, it is cheaper in states, cause our cost of living is reality so we don't need to pay labours that high (incl. police officers,teachers, factory works, fast food workers, etc).

Hence, let the prices keep going up, it is all good :)
good post and spot on. ***** here is over inflated.
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Beeg wrote:
Jun 23rd, 2012 7:59 pm
Who said temporarily? Asian culture isn't a rental culture, it's a purchase culture.


Where is that happening? How many properties do you own in Asia?

It's always very difficult to seriously discuss these types of issues with Canadians who lack real international experience.

So I won't continue here and will leave saying "OH IT'S ALL GOING TO HELL...SELL, SELL, SELL.....GET THE LIFEBOATS!"

Good luck.

Here Beeg,
http://www.mpettis.com/

read up about China and it's economic problems. It's alot worse than you think.
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Mark77 wrote:
Jun 23rd, 2012 6:46 pm
Only a 50% drop? You're being generous!
According to the Mayan calendar, this year we will face a massive drop indeed. Probably way more than 50%.
Andre Oliveira - Mortgage Agent
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OP, would you be able to include more data in your OP?

I would love to see how we did before 2005 as well. (perhaps include 1999 - 2005 as well just to see a boom phase)
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Mark77 wrote:
Jun 23rd, 2012 9:45 pm
No, I won't "keep that in mind". Because banks definitely can benefit from lower prices and foreclosures as I have shown. Plus money that isn't invested in housing, can be invested in other things that often provide good returns for the banks.
Sure banks can benefit from lower prices and foreclosures... but not as much as they can benefit from higher prices. TD has no agenda to crash the market, and so when they suggest a 15% drop, it carries a little more weight to it than someone like ME for instance suggesting a 15% drop (because I am a bear, with no housing assets, and therefore, bias).
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laptop-tech wrote:
Jun 24th, 2012 12:14 pm
According to the Mayan calendar, this year we will face a massive drop indeed. Probably way more than 50%.
Like a 100% drop? Off the face of the universe? John Cusack survived, so I'm sure we'll all be fine. Richmond may sink............. :lol:
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choclover wrote:
Jun 24th, 2012 10:27 am
Hi Adamtheman,

Great idea to start this thread as I think it will be an interesting discussion topic for quite some time. Unfortunately, most of the discussion so far has not included much supporting data which makes it difficult to separate fact from opinion. And with the level of investment required to participate in the Vancouver real estate market, vested parties will have no shortage of opinions. I have taken the data from the original post and graphed to see the trend more clearly but was unable to post due to technical difficulties. I am interested in using this data and what we know to forecast future price levels to see if and when the 50% correction might actually occur.
Hi choclover. Thanks... yes, starting a thread like this takes some effort, time and a long commitment. The Vancouver crash/drop/soft landing (whatever it turns out to be) will be long and have ups and downs. But I'll continue to update this thread as needed. I am glad you plotted all the data and graphed it, but someone already beat you to the punch. PaulB a realtor from Vancouver has prices all the way back to 1977 (and condo/townhouse prices back to 1984). Here is the chart which he updates monthly

Image

This graph is good because it tracks condos/townhouses... but I am choosing to track only detached in this thread, just for simplicity and a benchmark. Hope this helps!
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Shadow Rider wrote:
Jun 23rd, 2012 8:49 pm
Don't know about Vancouver, but went Condo hunting today in Toronto....they're not kidding about shoe boxes in the sky, I had no idea how small some of these "luxury" condos are 1 bed room 650-750 sq ft??

What's the source of the avg. Vancouver prices?
If you think a 750sqft 1 bedroom condo is a "shoe box", then you really need to get out and travel the world more my friend.
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adamtheman wrote:
Jun 24th, 2012 2:12 pm
TD has no agenda to crash the market, and so when they suggest a 15% drop, it carries a little more weight to it
Ahh yes, TD.... those great savant seers able to prophesize the future real estate market. Let's see some of their previous predictions.

Dec 2009 - http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economic ... resale.pdf
- Nonetheless, as supporting factors wane and affordability erosions weaken sales by over 10% in 2011, prices will struggle to keep up with CPI infl ation.

Oops.

February, 2010 - http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economic ... ousing.pdf
- Resale housing market data over the last three months suggest activity is cooling.
- we expect a gradual easing over the course of 2010, to eventually show 10-15% year-over-year declines by year-end


Oops again.

May 2010 - http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economic ... -sales.pdf
- CANADA TO EXPERIENCE A MODEST HOME PRICE CORRECTION IN 2011
- We still expect annual sales to decline by 10-12% next year


Oops again again.


I'm sure eventually we'll see some sort of correction... and those geniuses at TD can finally say "look, we were right all along!"
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gei wrote:
Jun 23rd, 2012 8:24 pm
Actually I have zero interest in the housing market, and could care less about where the value of my condo is headed. I have well over 50% equity, so even this doomsday crash would still leave me ahead. More importantly, I have very affordable mortgage payments and plan on being here for quite some time... so this is all irrelevant to me.

So I genuinely just find threads like this amusing... it's not anything to do with a vested interest.

On the flip side, I feel that the majority of people "predicting" this ridiculous 50% crash simply regret not buying something themselves a long time ago, and are more so "hoping" for this crash so they can actually afford something.
I find it amuse that those people who are looking forward to 50% off in RE that their investment in stocks and funds can be immune from such a correction since the world is connected together is such a way. By that time they might even have trouble to keep themselves employed, not sure if they still have the appetite to buy a property by then :lol:
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adamtheman wrote:
Jun 24th, 2012 2:12 pm
Sure banks can benefit from lower prices and foreclosures... but not as much as they can benefit from higher prices. TD has no agenda to crash the market, and so when they suggest a 15% drop, it carries a little more weight to it than someone like ME for instance suggesting a 15% drop (because I am a bear, with no housing assets, and therefore, bias).
I suggest you take a look at the stock charts of Canadian banks from 1990 through 2000, a period of declining real estate prices, if you want real-life (and not theoretical) confirmation that banks can do very well despite housing dropping for the reasons I suggested.
TodayHello wrote:
Oct 16th, 2012 9:06 pm
...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...

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